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ifo Geschäftsklima, Produktion und Ertragslage in der gewerblichen Wirtschaft

Author

Listed:
  • Klaus Abberger
  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

Abstract

Das ifo Geschäftsklima für die gewerbliche Wirtschaft ist seit vielen Jahren der wichtigste Frühindikator für die konjunkturelle Entwicklung in Deutschland. Insbesondere die Geschäftslageurteile und die Geschäftserwartungen – aus denen sich das ifo Geschäftsklima zusammensetzt – werden intensiv zur Konjunkturanalyse genutzt. Im folgenden Beitrag wird gezeigt, dass das Geschäftsklima nicht nur ein Frühindikator für die Konjunkturkomponente der Produktionsentwicklung in der gewerblichen Wirtschaft ist, sondern zugleich auch die zyklische Ertragssituation der Unternehmen abbildet. Zudem wird mit Hilfe der Hauptkomponentenanalyse ein Gesamtindikator konstruiert, dessen Korrelation mit dem ifo Geschäftsklima für die gewerbliche Wirtschaft sehr hoch ist.

Suggested Citation

  • Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2011. "ifo Geschäftsklima, Produktion und Ertragslage in der gewerblichen Wirtschaft," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 64(03), pages 21-24, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:64:y:2011:i:03:p:21-24
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    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/ifosd_2011_3_2.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael ARTIS & Massimiliano MARCELLINO & Tommaso PROIETTI, 2002. "Dating the Euro Area Business Cycle," Economics Working Papers ECO2002/24, European University Institute.
    2. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "Das ifo Geschäftsklima: Ein zuverlässiger Frühindikator," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(05), pages 25-30, March.
    3. Klaus Abberger & Manuel Birnbrich & Christian Seiler, 2009. "Der »Test des Tests« im Handel – eine Metaumfrage zum ifo Konjunkturtest," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(21), pages 34-41, November.
    4. Victor Zarnowitz, 1992. "Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number zarn92-1.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Robert Lehmann, 2023. "The Forecasting Power of the ifo Business Survey," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(1), pages 43-94, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Geschäftsklima; Verarbeitendes Gewerbe; Produktion; Konjunkturindikator; Deutschland;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General

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