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Regionale Konjunkturzyklen in Deutschland – Teil I: Die Datenlage

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  • Beate Schirwitz
  • Christian Seiler
  • Klaus Wohlrabe

Abstract

Die Analyse und Prognose regionaler Konjunkturzyklen gewinnt immer mehr an Bedeutung. Bisher liegt aber keine kohärente Beschreibung und Analyse regionaler Konjunkturzyklen für die 16 Bundesländer in Deutschland vor. In einer dreiteiligen Reihe im ifo Schnelldienst wird beschrieben, wie regionale Konjunkturzyklen in Deutschland definiert und datiert werden können, und untersucht, inwieweit die regionale Wirtschaftsentwicklung im Zeitablauf konvergiert. Der erste Beitrag in dieser Ausgabe beschreibt die Datenlage in den Bundesländern. Aufgrund fehlender Unterjährigkeit des Bruttoinlandsproduktes in den Bundesländern wird gezeigt, wie die monatlichen Umsätze im verarbeitenden Gewerbe näherungsweise als repräsentativ für den Konjunkturzyklus interpretiert werden können.

Suggested Citation

  • Beate Schirwitz & Christian Seiler & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2009. "Regionale Konjunkturzyklen in Deutschland – Teil I: Die Datenlage," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(13), pages 18-24, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:62:y:2009:i:13:p:18-24
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gießler Stefan & Heinisch Katja & Holtemöller Oliver, 2021. "(Since When) Are East and West German Business Cycles Synchronised?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 241(1), pages 1-28, February.
    2. Lehmann Robert & Wohlrabe Klaus, 2015. "Forecasting GDP at the Regional Level with Many Predictors," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 16(2), pages 226-254, May.
    3. Wenzel, Lars & Wolf, André, 2013. "Short-term forecasting with business surveys: Evidence for German IHK data at federal state level," HWWI Research Papers 140, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    4. Jürgen Bierbaumer, 2012. "Regionale Konjunkturzyklen in Österreich," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 85(11), pages 833-848, November.
    5. Beate Schirwitz & Christian Seiler & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2009. "Regionale Konjunkturzyklen in Deutschland – Teil II: Die Zyklendatierung," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(14), pages 24-31, July.
    6. Jan Kluge, 2011. "Wachstum und Beschäftigung am Wirtschaftsstandort Dresden – Warum wächst Dresden langsamer als der Rest Sachsens?," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 18(05), pages 11-19, October.
    7. Beate Schirwitz & Christian Seiler & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2009. "Regionale Konjunkturzyklen in Deutschland – Teil III: Konvergenz," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(15), pages 23-32, August.
    8. Jan Kluge & Anna Montén & Wolfgang Nagl & Beate Schirwitz & Marcel Thum, 2012. "Wachstum und Beschäftigung am Wirtschaftsstandort Dresden," ifo Dresden Studien, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 64, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Regionaler Konjunkturzyklus; Messung; Datenqualität; Deutschland;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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