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Did the COVID-19 pandemic disturb intra-EU trade in agrifood products? Evidence from a counterfactual forecasting approach

Author

Listed:
  • Mariusz Hamulczuk

    (Department of International Economics and Agribusiness, Institute of Economics and Finance, Warsaw University of Life Sciences, Warsaw, Poland)

  • Karolina Pawlak

    (Department of Economics and Economic Policy in Agribusiness, Faculty of Economics, Poznan University of Life Sciences, Poznan, Poland)

  • Daniel Sumner

    (Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California at Davis, Davis, United States of America)

  • Grzegorz Szafrański

    (Economics and Sociology Department, Institute of Econometrics, University of Lodz, Lodz, Poland)

Abstract

In this study, we attempt to infer the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the intra-European Union (EU) agrifood trade from out-of-sample forecasts. We compare the actual level of trade during the COVID-19 period with counterfactual values derived from univariate forecasting models [regARIMA (Linear regression with autoregressive integrated moving average errors) and Holt-Winters methods]. We analyse agrifood imports and exports of specific EU countries and the EU-27 aggregate on the basis of monthly data for the period from January 2010 to February 2022. The findings reveal a significant decrease in trade activity in the first year of the pandemic that was negatively correlated to COVID-19 restrictions applied by EU countries. Surprisingly, COVID-19 restrictions do not significantly explain the diversified agrifood trade response among EU countries during the pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariusz Hamulczuk & Karolina Pawlak & Daniel Sumner & Grzegorz Szafrański, 2024. "Did the COVID-19 pandemic disturb intra-EU trade in agrifood products? Evidence from a counterfactual forecasting approach," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 70(11), pages 556-564.
    • Handle: RePEc:caa:jnlage:v:70:y:2024:i:11:id:253-2024-agricecon
    DOI: 10.17221/253/2024-AGRICECON
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