Forecasting inflation through a bottom-up approach: How bottom is bottom?
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
- Elena Angelini & Jérôme Henry & Ricardo Mestre, 2001.
"Diffusion index-based inflation forecasts for the euro area,"
BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Empirical studies of structural changes and inflation, volume 3, pages 109-138,
Bank for International Settlements.
- Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo & Backé, Peter, 2001. "Diffusion index-based inflation forecasts for the euro area," Working Paper Series 61, European Central Bank.
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002.
"Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1504, Econometric Society.
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 440, Boston College Department of Economics.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis," NBER Working Papers 11467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992.
"Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
- Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2006.
"A comparison of direct and iterated multistep AR methods for forecasting macroeconomic time series,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 499-526.
- Stock, James & Watson, Mark & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2005. "A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series," CEPR Discussion Papers 4976, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Massimiliano Marcellino & James Stock & Mark Watson, 2005. "A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series," Working Papers 285, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Elena Angelini & Jérôme Henry & Ricardo Mestre, 2001.
"A multi-country trend indicator for euro area inflation: computation and properties,"
BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Empirical studies of structural changes and inflation, volume 3, pages 81-108,
Bank for International Settlements.
- Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo & Backé, Peter, 2001. "A multi-country trend indicator for euro area inflation: computation and properties," Working Paper Series 60, European Central Bank.
- Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Yoo, B. S., 1990.
"Seasonal integration and cointegration,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 215-238.
- Hyllerberg, S. & Engle, R.F. & Granger, C.W.J. & Yoo, B.S., 1988. "Seasonal Integration And Cointegration," Papers 0-88-2, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R.F. & Granger, C.W.J. & Yoo, B.S., 1988. "Seasonal, Integration And Cointegration," Papers 6-88-2, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-263, July.
- Francis X. Diebold & Roberto S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999.
"Forecasting inflation,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1999. "Forecasting Inflation," NBER Working Papers 7023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003.
"Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research,"
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
- David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Economics Papers 2002-W11, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Hendry, David F & Michael P. Clements, 2002. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 99, Royal Economic Society.
- David Hendry & Michael P. Clements & Department of Economics & University of Warwick, 2001. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Economics Series Working Papers 78, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2001. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Working Paper Series 82, European Central Bank.
- Joseph Beaulieu, J. & Miron, Jeffrey A., 1993.
"Seasonal unit roots in aggregate U.S. data,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1-2), pages 305-328.
- J. Joseph Beaulieu & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1992. "Seasonal Unit Roots in Aggregate U.S. Data," NBER Technical Working Papers 0126, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Diebold, Francis X & Kilian, Lutz, 2000.
"Unit-Root Tests Are Useful for Selecting Forecasting Models,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(3), pages 265-273, July.
- Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, 1999. "Unit Root Tests are Useful for Selecting Forecasting Models," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-063, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
- Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, 1999. "Unit Root Tests Are Useful for Selecting Forecasting Models," NBER Working Papers 6928, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2003.
"Macroeconomic forecasting in the Euro area: Country specific versus area-wide information,"
European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-18, February.
- Massimiliano Marcellino & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, "undated". "Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Euro Area: Country Specific versus Area-Wide Information," Working Papers 201, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2005.
"Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(1), pages 387-422.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2004. "Measuring the effects of monetary policy: a factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) approach," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2004. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," NBER Working Papers 10220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lutkepohl, Helmut, 1984. "Linear transformations of vector ARMA processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 283-293, December.
- Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2006.
"On the selection of forecasting models,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 273-306, February.
- Kilian, Lutz & Inoue, Atsushi, 2003. "On the Selection of Forecasting Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 3809, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2003. "On the selection of forecasting models," Working Paper Series 214, European Central Bank.
- Hubrich, Kirstin, 2005.
"Forecasting euro area inflation: Does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 119-136.
- Hubrich, Kirstin, 2003. "Forecasting euro area inflation: Does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?," Working Paper Series 247, European Central Bank.
- Kirstin Hubrich, 2004. "Forecasting euro area inflation: Does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 230, Society for Computational Economics.
- Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-162, April.
- Friedrich Fritzer & Gabriel Moser & Johann Scharler, 2002. "Forecasting Austrian HICP and its Components using VAR and ARIMA Models," Working Papers 73, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1998. "Diffusion Indexes," NBER Working Papers 6702, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
- Roma, Moreno & Skudelny, Frauke & Benalal, Nicholai & Diaz del Hoyo, Juan Luis & Landau, Bettina, 2004. "To aggregate or not to aggregate? Euro area inflation forecasting," Working Paper Series 374, European Central Bank.
- Granger, Clive W.J. & YOON, GAWON, 2001. "Self-Generating Variables in a Cointegrated VAR Framework," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt6010k0xn, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Lutkepohl, Helmut, 1984. "Forecasting Contemporaneously Aggregated Vector ARMA Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(3), pages 201-214, July.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Hendry, David F. & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2006.
"Forecasting economic aggregates by disaggregates,"
Working Paper Series
589, European Central Bank.
- Hendry, David & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2006. "Forecasting Economic Aggregates by Disaggregates," CEPR Discussion Papers 5485, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Hubrich, Kirstin, 2005.
"Forecasting euro area inflation: Does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 119-136.
- Hubrich, Kirstin, 2003. "Forecasting euro area inflation: Does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?," Working Paper Series 247, European Central Bank.
- Kirstin Hubrich, 2004. "Forecasting euro area inflation: Does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 230, Society for Computational Economics.
- Moser, Gabriel & Rumler, Fabio & Scharler, Johann, 2007.
"Forecasting Austrian inflation,"
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 470-480, May.
- Gabriel Moser & Fabio Rumler & Johann Scharler, 2004. "Forecasting Austrian Inflation," Working Papers 91, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
- O. De Bandt & E. Michaux & C. Bruneau & A. Flageollet, 2007.
"Forecasting inflation using economic indicators: the case of France,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1-22.
- Bruneau, C. & De Bandt, O. & Flageollet, A. & Michaux, E., 2003. "Forecasting Inflation using Economic Indicators: the Case of France," Working papers 101, Banque de France.
- Sandra Eickmeier & Christina Ziegler, 2008. "How successful are dynamic factor models at forecasting output and inflation? A meta-analytic approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 237-265.
- Espasa, Antoni & Mayo-Burgos, Iván, 2013.
"Forecasting aggregates and disaggregates with common features,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 718-732.
- Mayo, Iván, 2012. "Forecasting aggregates and disaggregates with common features," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws110805, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de EstadÃstica.
- Thiago Carlomagno Carlo & Emerson Fernandes Marçal, 2016.
"Forecasting Brazilian inflation by its aggregate and disaggregated data: a test of predictive power by forecast horizon,"
Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(50), pages 4846-4860, October.
- Carlos, Thiago Carlomagno & Marçal, Emerson Fernandes, 2013. "Forecasting Brazilian inflation by its aggregate and disaggregated data: a test of predictive power by forecast horizon," Textos para discussão 346, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
- Dr. Marco Huwiler & Daniel Kaufmann, 2013. "Combining disaggregate forecasts for inflation: The SNB's ARIMA model," Economic Studies 2013-07, Swiss National Bank.
- Daniel Grenouilleau, 2006. "The Stacked Leading Indicators Dynamic Factor Model: A Sensitivity Analysis of Forecast Accuracy using Bootstrapping," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 249, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- António Rua, 2011.
"A wavelet approach for factor‐augmented forecasting,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(7), pages 666-678, November.
- António Rua, 2010. "A Wavelet Approach for Factor-Augmented Forecasting," Working Papers w201007, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Hanan Naser, 2015. "Estimating and forecasting Bahrain quarterly GDP growth using simple regression and factor-based methods," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 449-479, September.
- Cobb, Marcus P A, 2017. "Forecasting Economic Aggregates Using Dynamic Component Grouping," MPRA Paper 81585, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Rua, António, 2017.
"A wavelet-based multivariate multiscale approach for forecasting,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 581-590.
- António Rua, 2016. "A wavelet-based multivariate multiscale approach for forecasting," Working Papers w201612, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "Forecasting Inflation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2-56, Elsevier.
- Ibarra, Raul, 2012. "Do disaggregated CPI data improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1305-1313.
- Karim Barhoumi & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2010.
"Are disaggregate data useful for factor analysis in forecasting French GDP?,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 132-144.
- Barhoumi, K. & Darné, O. & Ferrara, L., 2009. "Are disaggregate data useful for factor analysis in forecasting French GDP?," Working papers 232, Banque de France.
- Daniel Grenouilleau, 2004. "A sorted leading indicators dynamic (SLID) factor model for short-run euro-area GDP forecasting," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 219, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2012. "Improving forecasting in an emerging economy, South Africa: Changing trends, long run restrictions and disaggregation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 456-476.
- Shibamoto, Masahiko, 2008. "The estimation of monetary policy reaction function in a data-rich environment: The case of Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 497-520, December.
- Bräuning, Falk & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2014.
"Forecasting macroeconomic variables using collapsed dynamic factor analysis,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 572-584.
- Falk Brauning & Siem Jan Koopman, 2012. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables using Collapsed Dynamic Factor Analysis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-042/4, Tinbergen Institute.
Corrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:24:y:2007:i:6:p:941-953. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.