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Employment Protection in Dual Labor Markets: Any Amplification of Macroeconomic Shocks?

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  • Lochner Benjamin

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

Abstract

This paper studies the effects of labor market duality in terms of employment legislation protection (EPL) on labor market volatilities. Modeling contractual heterogeneity through a gap in EPL of temporary and permanent workers (weakly protected temporary/highly protected permanent contracts), I simulate both supply and demand shocks in a New Keynesian model with unemployment. I find that unemployment fluctuations follow an inverted U-shape over the magnitude of the EPL gap: small EPL gaps amplify, while large EPL gaps dampen the reaction of unemployment. In a subsequent empirical analysis, I find that the model’s predictions are consistent with panel data for a large set of OECD countries. Uncovering the non-linear course of unemployment volatility helps reconcile previous divergent research results.

Suggested Citation

  • Lochner Benjamin, 2024. "Employment Protection in Dual Labor Markets: Any Amplification of Macroeconomic Shocks?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(1), pages 249-304, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:24:y:2024:i:1:p:249-304:n:5
    DOI: 10.1515/bejm-2023-0044
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    2. Christoph S. Weber, 2020. "The unemployment effect of central bank transparency," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2947-2975, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    dual labor market; employment protection; firing costs; unemployment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J41 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Labor Contracts
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs

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