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Labor market search, the Taylor principle, and indeterminacy

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  • Takushi Kurozumi
  • Willem Van Zandweghe

Abstract

In a sticky-price model with labor market search and matching frictions, forecast-based interestrate policy almost always induces indeterminacy when it is strictly inflation targeting and satisfies the Taylor principle. Indeterminacy is due to a vacancy channel of monetary policy that makes inflation expectations self-fulfilling. The effect of this channel strengthens as the sluggishness of the adjustment of employment relative to that of consumption increases. When this relative sluggishness is high, the Taylor principle fails to ensure determinacy, regardless of whether the policy is forecast-based or outcome-based, whether it is strictly or flexibly inflation targeting, or contains policy rate smoothing.

Suggested Citation

  • Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2010. "Labor market search, the Taylor principle, and indeterminacy," Research Working Paper RWP 11-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkrw:rwp11-01
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    Cited by:

    1. Federico Ravenna & Carl E. Walsh, 2011. "Welfare-Based Optimal Monetary Policy with Unemployment and Sticky Prices: A Linear-Quadratic Framework," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 130-162, April.
    2. Kurozumi, Takushi & Van Zandweghe, Willem, 2010. "Labor market search, the Taylor principle, and indeterminacy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(7), pages 851-858, October.
    3. Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2011. "Determinacy under Inflation Targeting Interest Rate Policy in a Sticky Price Model with Investment (and Labor Bargaining)," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(5), pages 1019-1033, August.
    4. Francesco Furlanetto & Nicolas Groshenny, 2016. "Mismatch Shocks and Unemployment During the Great Recession," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1197-1214, November.
    5. Francesco Furlanetto & Nicolas Groshenny, "undated". "Mismatch Shocks and Unemployment During the Great Recession," School of Economics Working Papers 2015-14, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
    6. Francesco Furlanetto & Nicolas Groshenny, 2012. "Matching efficiency and business cycle fluctuations," Working Paper 2012/07, Norges Bank.
    7. Mewael F. Tesfaselassie & Eric Schaling, 2016. "On Determinacy and Learnability in a New Keynesian Model with Unemployment," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 84(4), pages 607-623, December.
    8. Furlanetto, Francesco & Groshenny, Nicolas, 2016. "Reallocation shocks, persistence and nominal rigidities," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 151-155.
    9. Hibiki Ichiue & Takushi Kurozumi & Takeki Sunakawa, 2013. "Inflation Dynamics And Labor Market Specifications: A Bayesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach For Japan'S Economy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(1), pages 273-287, January.
    10. Giray Gozgor, 2013. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in an Inflation Targeting Country: The Case of Turkey," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 6(1), pages 7-18, April.
    11. Di Pace, Federico & Villa, Stefania, 2016. "Factor complementarity and labour market dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 70-112.
    12. Van Zandweghe, Willem, 2010. "On-the-job search, sticky prices, and persistence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 437-455, March.
    13. Zhao, Junzhu, 2023. "Wealth in utility, the Taylor principle and determinacy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    14. Rannenberg, Ansgar, 2009. "The Taylor Principle and (In-) Determinacy in a New Keynesian Model with hiring Frictions and Skill Loss," SIRE Discussion Papers 2009-48, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    15. Kurozumi, Takushi & Van Zandweghe, Willem, 2012. "Learning about monetary policy rules when labor market search and matching frictions matter," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 523-535.
    16. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2009. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 2, pages 027-076, Central Bank of Chile.

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    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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