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Dragon Children: Identifying the Causal Effect of the First Child on Female Labour Supply with the Chinese Lunar Calendar

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  • James P. Vere

Abstract

Instrumental variables (IV) estimates of the effect of fertility on female labour supply have only been able to identify the causal effect of second and higher parity children. This study uses exogenous variation in fertility caused by the Chinese lunar calendar to identify the effect of the first child. Additionally, weighting formulas are presented to interpret IV estimates as weighted average treatment effects in the case of multiple endogenous variables, which are useful when children vary in intensity by both number and age. The effect of the first child is found to be much greater than that of other children.

Suggested Citation

  • James P. Vere, 2008. "Dragon Children: Identifying the Causal Effect of the First Child on Female Labour Supply with the Chinese Lunar Calendar," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(3), pages 303-325, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:70:y:2008:i:3:p:303-325
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0084.2008.00501.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Joshua D. Angrist & Victor Lavy & Analia Schlosser, 2005. "New Evidence on the Causal Link Between the Quantity and Quality of Children," NBER Working Papers 11835, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Johnson, Noel D. & Nye, John V.C., 2011. "Does fortune favor dragons?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 78(1-2), pages 85-97, April.
    2. Hai-Anh H. Dang & F. Halsey Rogers, 2016. "The Decision to Invest in Child Quality over Quantity: Household Size and Household Investment in Education in Vietnam," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 30(1), pages 104-142.
    3. Cheng Huang & Xiaojing Ma & Shiying Zhang & Qingguo Zhao, 2020. "Numerological preferences, timing of births and the long-term effect on schooling," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(2), pages 531-554, April.
    4. Huang, Cheng & Zhang, Shiying & Zhao, Qingguo & Lin, Yan, 2021. "Dragon year superstition, birth timing, and neonatal health outcomes," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    5. Beam, Emily A. & Shrestha, Slesh, 2016. "Inter-ethnic Fertility Spillovers and the Role of Forward-looking Behavior: Evidence from Peninsular Malaysia," IZA Discussion Papers 10385, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Naci H. Mocan & Han Yu, 2017. "Can Superstition Create a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy? School Outcomes of Dragon Children of China," NBER Working Papers 23709, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Chih Ming Tan & Xiao Wang & Xiaobo Zhang, 2024. "It's all in the stars: The Chinese zodiac and the effects of parental investments on offspring's cognitive and noncognitive skill development," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(3), pages 877-920, July.
    8. Quy-Toan Do & Tung D. Phung, 2010. "The Importance of Being Wanted," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 236-253, October.
    9. Andy L. Chou, 2022. "Fortunes and misfortunes of the dragon sons: Direct and cohort effects of superstition on education attainment," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(4), pages 564-579, November.
    10. Huang, Yin-Siang & Chiu, Junmao & Lin, Chih-Yung & Robin,, 2022. "The effect of Chinese lunar calendar on individual investors' trading," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    11. Tao Chen, 2018. "Dragon CEOs and Firm Value," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 51(3), pages 382-395, September.
    12. Yan Lau, 2019. "The dragon cohort of Hong Kong: traditional beliefs, demographics, and education," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 32(1), pages 219-246, January.
    13. van der Stoep, Gabrielle, 2008. "Childbearing and labour force participation in South Africa: sibling composition as an identification strategy?," MPRA Paper 52908, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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