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Inter-ethnic Fertility Spillovers and the Role of Forward-looking Behavior: Evidence from Peninsular Malaysia

Author

Listed:
  • Beam, Emily A.

    (University of Vermont)

  • Shrestha, Slesh

    (National University of Singapore)

Abstract

Demographic pressures can create competition for limited private and public resources and exacerbate pre-existing inter-ethnic tensions. At the same time, inter-ethnic competition may influence individual fertility decisions. Using the variation in birth rates in Malaysia induced by the Chinese lunar calendar, we document a 12.7-percent rise in births among ethnic Chinese in dragon years, which are considered auspicious. We find a negative fertility response from Malays – for every additional Chinese new-born child, Malays reduced their fertility by 0.30 children. We estimate the elasticity of this inter-ethnic fertility spillover (-0.15), and we find strongly suggestive evidence that pressure on resources was an important driver of these spillovers. The Malay response was greatest in areas where resources were more limited, and in areas with lower public investments. These results suggest that households are forward-looking in their fertility decisions, and they point to the potential role of governments in reducing ethnic tension through policies that increase private and public resources.

Suggested Citation

  • Beam, Emily A. & Shrestha, Slesh, 2016. "Inter-ethnic Fertility Spillovers and the Role of Forward-looking Behavior: Evidence from Peninsular Malaysia," IZA Discussion Papers 10385, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10385
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fertility timing; ethnic competition; spillover; Chinese zodiac; public resources; Malaysia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements

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