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Does fortune favor dragons?

Author

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  • Johnson, Noel D.
  • Nye, John V.C.

Abstract

Why do seemingly irrational superstitions persist? We analyze the widely held belief among Asians that children born in the Year of the dragon are superior. We use pooled cross section data from the U.S. Current Population Survey to show that Asian immigrants to the United States born in the 1976 year of the dragon are more educated than comparable immigrants from non-dragon years. In contrast, no such educational effect is noticeable for dragon-year children in the general U.S. population. We also provide evidence that Asian mothers of dragon year babies are more educated, richer, and slightly older than Asian mothers of non-dragon year children. This suggests that belief in the greater superiority of dragon-year children is self-fulfilling since the demographic characteristics associated with parents who are more willing and able to adjust their birthing strategies to have dragon children are also correlated with greater investment in their human capital.

Suggested Citation

  • Johnson, Noel D. & Nye, John V.C., 2011. "Does fortune favor dragons?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 85-97.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:78:y:2011:i:1:p:85-97
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2010.12.010
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    2. Naci H. Mocan & Han Yu, 2017. "Can Superstition Create a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy? School Outcomes of Dragon Children of China," NBER Working Papers 23709, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Invernizzi, Giovanna M. & Miller, Joshua B. & Coen, Tommaso & Dufwenberg, Martin & Oliveira, Luiz Edgard R., 2021. "Tra i Leoni: Revealing the preferences behind a superstition," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    4. Liu, Yang & Yang, Yaowu, 2022. "New “useless education theory”: Highly educated parents' expectations for their children's education—Evidence from the one-child policy," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    5. repec:cup:judgdm:v:13:y:2018:i:5:p:467-470 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Andy L. Chou, 2022. "Fortunes and misfortunes of the dragon sons: Direct and cohort effects of superstition on education attainment," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(4), pages 564-579, November.
    7. Chih Ming Tan & Xiao Wang & Xiaobo Zhang, 2024. "It's all in the stars: The Chinese zodiac and the effects of parental investments on offspring's cognitive and noncognitive skill development," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(3), pages 877-920, July.
    8. Elena B. Pokryshevskaya & Evgeny A. Antipov, 2015. "A study of numerological superstitions in the apartments market," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(1), pages 83-88.
    9. Tao Chen, 2018. "Dragon CEOs and Firm Value," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 51(3), pages 382-395, September.
    10. Yan Lau, 2019. "The dragon cohort of Hong Kong: traditional beliefs, demographics, and education," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 32(1), pages 219-246, January.
    11. Dmitry Burakov, 2018. "Do discounts mitigate numerological superstitions? Evidence from the Russian real estate market," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 13(5), pages 467-470, September.
    12. Cheng Huang & Xiaojing Ma & Shiying Zhang & Qingguo Zhao, 2020. "Numerological preferences, timing of births and the long-term effect on schooling," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(2), pages 531-554, April.
    13. Huang, Cheng & Zhang, Shiying & Zhao, Qingguo & Lin, Yan, 2021. "Dragon year superstition, birth timing, and neonatal health outcomes," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    14. Evgeny A. Antipov & Elena B. Pokryshevskaya, 2015. "Are buyers of apartments superstitious? Evidence from the Russian real estate market," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 10(6), pages 590-592, November.
    15. Beam, Emily A. & Shrestha, Slesh, 2016. "Inter-ethnic Fertility Spillovers and the Role of Forward-looking Behavior: Evidence from Peninsular Malaysia," IZA Discussion Papers 10385, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Bhattacharya, Haimanti & Dugar, Subhasish, 2022. "Business norm versus norm-nudge as a contract-enforcing mechanism: Evidence from a real marketplace," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    17. Jia He & Haoming Liu & Tien Foo Sing & Changcheng Song & Wei-Kang Wong, 2020. "Superstition, Conspicuous Spending, and Housing Market: Evidence from Singapore," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(2), pages 783-804, February.
    18. d'Este, Rocco & Einiö, Elias, 2021. "Beyond Black and White: The Impact of Asian Peers on Scholastic Achievement," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    19. d'Este, Rocco & Einiö, Elias, 2018. "Asian Segregation and Scholastic Achievement: Evidence from Primary Schools in New York City," IZA Discussion Papers 11682, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Family Planning; Human Capital; Superstition; Preference formation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • Z13 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Economic Sociology; Economic Anthropology; Language; Social and Economic Stratification

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