IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jtsera/v37y2016i1p126-142.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Nonparametric Model for Stationary Time Series

Author

Listed:
  • Isadora Antoniano-Villalobos
  • Stephen G. Walker

Abstract

type="main" xml:id="jtsa12146-abs-0001"> Stationary processes are a natural choice as statistical models for time series data, owing to their good estimating properties. In practice, however, alternative models are often proposed that sacrifice stationarity in favour of the greater modelling flexibility required by many real-life applications. We present a family of time-homogeneous Markov processes with nonparametric stationary densities, which retain the desirable statistical properties for inference, while achieving substantial modelling flexibility, matching those achievable with certain non-stationary models. A latent extension of the model enables exact inference through a trans-dimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo method. Numerical illustrations are presented.

Suggested Citation

  • Isadora Antoniano-Villalobos & Stephen G. Walker, 2016. "A Nonparametric Model for Stationary Time Series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 126-142, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jtsera:v:37:y:2016:i:1:p:126-142
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/jtsa.12146
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Omiros Papaspiliopoulos & Gareth O. Roberts, 2008. "Retrospective Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for Dirichlet process hierarchical models," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 95(1), pages 169-186.
    2. Alexandros Beskos & Omiros Papaspiliopoulos & Gareth O. Roberts & Paul Fearnhead, 2006. "Exact and computationally efficient likelihood‐based estimation for discretely observed diffusion processes (with discussion)," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 68(3), pages 333-382, June.
    3. Griffin, J.E. & Steel, M.F.J., 2011. "Stick-breaking autoregressive processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(2), pages 383-396, June.
    4. Ramsés H. Mena & Stephen G. Walker, 2005. "Stationary Autoregressive Models via a Bayesian Nonparametric Approach," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(6), pages 789-805, November.
    5. Griffin, J.E. & Steel, M.F.J., 2006. "Order-Based Dependent Dirichlet Processes," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 179-194, March.
    6. Tang, Yongqiang & Ghosal, Subhashis, 2007. "A consistent nonparametric Bayesian procedure for estimating autoregressive conditional densities," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(9), pages 4424-4437, May.
    7. Martínez-Ovando Juan Carlos & Walker Stephen G., 2011. "Time-series Modelling, Stationarity and Bayesian Nonparametric Methods," Working Papers 2011-08, Banco de México.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kalli, Maria & Griffin, Jim E., 2018. "Bayesian nonparametric vector autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 203(2), pages 267-282.
    2. Anzarut, Michelle & Mena, Ramsés H., 2019. "A Harris process to model stochastic volatility," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 10(C), pages 151-169.
    3. Matthew Heiner & Athanasios Kottas, 2022. "Autoregressive density modeling with the Gaussian process mixture transition distribution," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(2), pages 157-177, March.
    4. Jim Griffin & Maria Kalli & Mark Steel, 2018. "Discussion of “Nonparametric Bayesian Inference in Applications”: Bayesian nonparametric methods in econometrics," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 27(2), pages 207-218, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stefano Favaro & Antonio Lijoi & Igor Prünster, 2012. "On the stick–breaking representation of normalized inverse Gaussian priors," DEM Working Papers Series 008, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    2. Pati, Debdeep & Dunson, David B. & Tokdar, Surya T., 2013. "Posterior consistency in conditional distribution estimation," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 456-472.
    3. Billio, Monica & Casarin, Roberto & Rossini, Luca, 2019. "Bayesian nonparametric sparse VAR models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(1), pages 97-115.
    4. Federico Bassetti & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2018. "Bayesian Nonparametric Calibration and Combination of Predictive Distributions," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 113(522), pages 675-685, April.
    5. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Luca Rossini, 2016. "Bayesian nonparametric sparse seemingly unrelated regression model (SUR)," Working Papers 2016:20, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    6. Igor Prünster & Matteo Ruggiero, 2011. "A Bayesian nonparametric approach to modeling market share dynamics," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 217, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    7. Luis E. Nieto-Barajas & Peter Müller & Yuan Ji & Yiling Lu & Gordon B. Mills, 2012. "A Time-Series DDP for Functional Proteomics Profiles," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 859-868, September.
    8. Jin, Xin & Maheu, John M., 2016. "Bayesian semiparametric modeling of realized covariance matrices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(1), pages 19-39.
    9. Weixuan Zhu & Fabrizio Leisen, 2015. "A multivariate extension of a vector of two-parameter Poisson-Dirichlet processes," Journal of Nonparametric Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1), pages 89-105, March.
    10. Shamsi Zamenjani, Azam, 2021. "Do financial variables help predict the conditional distribution of the market portfolio?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 327-345.
    11. Bassetti, Federico & Casarin, Roberto & Leisen, Fabrizio, 2014. "Beta-product dependent Pitman–Yor processes for Bayesian inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 180(1), pages 49-72.
    12. Debdeep Pati & David Dunson, 2014. "Bayesian nonparametric regression with varying residual density," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 66(1), pages 1-31, February.
    13. Huang, Yifan & Meng, Shengwang, 2020. "A Bayesian nonparametric model and its application in insurance loss prediction," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 84-94.
    14. Konstantinos Kalogeropoulos & Gareth O. Roberts & Petros Dellaportas, 2007. "Inference for stochastic volatility models using time change transformations," Papers 0711.1594, arXiv.org.
    15. Bassetti, Federico & Casarin, Roberto & Leisen, Fabrizio, 2011. "Beta-product Poisson-Dirichlet Processes," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 12160, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    16. Miller, Jeffrey W., 2019. "An elementary derivation of the Chinese restaurant process from Sethuraman’s stick-breaking process," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 112-117.
    17. Pelenis, Justinas, 2014. "Bayesian regression with heteroscedastic error density and parametric mean function," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P3), pages 624-638.
    18. Peter J. Diggle & Raquel Menezes & Ting‐li Su, 2010. "Geostatistical inference under preferential sampling," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 59(2), pages 191-232, March.
    19. De Blasi, Pierpaolo & Martínez, Asael Fabian & Mena, Ramsés H. & Prünster, Igor, 2020. "On the inferential implications of decreasing weight structures in mixture models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    20. Minkun Kim & David Lindberg & Martin Crane & Marija Bezbradica, 2023. "Dirichlet Process Log Skew-Normal Mixture with a Missing-at-Random-Covariate in Insurance Claim Analysis," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-32, October.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jtsera:v:37:y:2016:i:1:p:126-142. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0143-9782 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.