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Bias Correction of Persistence Measures in Fractionally Integrated Models

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Listed:
  • Neil Kellard
  • Denise Osborn
  • Jerry Coakley
  • Simone D. Grose
  • Gael M. Martin
  • Donald S. Poskitt

Abstract

type="main" xml:id="jtsa12116-abs-0001"> This article investigates the accuracy of bootstrap-based bias correction of persistence measures for long-memory fractionally integrated processes. The bootstrap method is based on the semi-parametric sieve approach, with the dynamics in the long-memory process captured by an autoregressive approximation. With a view to improving accuracy, the sieve method is also applied to data prefiltered by a semi-parametric estimate of the long-memory parameter. Both versions of the bootstrap technique are used to estimate the finite-sample distributions of the sample autocorrelation coefficients and the impulse response coefficients and, in turn, to bias adjust these statistics. The accuracy of the resultant estimators in the case of the autocorrelation coefficients is also compared with that yielded by analytical bias adjustment methods when available. The basic sieve technique is seen to yield a reduction in the bias of both persistence measures. The prefiltered sieve produces a substantial further reduction in the bias of the estimated impulse response function, whilst the extra improvement yielded by prefiltering in the case of the sample autocorrelation function is shown to depend heavily on the accuracy of the prefilter.

Suggested Citation

  • Neil Kellard & Denise Osborn & Jerry Coakley & Simone D. Grose & Gael M. Martin & Donald S. Poskitt, 2015. "Bias Correction of Persistence Measures in Fractionally Integrated Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 721-740, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jtsera:v:36:y:2015:i:5:p:721-740
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/jtsa.12116
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    1. D. Poskitt, 2007. "Autoregressive approximation in nonstandard situations: the fractionally integrated and non-invertible cases," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 59(4), pages 697-725, December.
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    7. Winker, Peter & Helmut, Lütkepohl & Staszewska-Bystrova, Anna, 2014. "Confidence Bands for Impulse Responses: Bonferroni versus Wald," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100597, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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