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A decision support system for addressing food security in the United Kingdom

Author

Listed:
  • Martine J. Barons
  • Thais C. O. Fonseca
  • Andy Davis
  • Jim Q. Smith

Abstract

This paper presents an integrating decision support system (IDSS) for food security in the United Kingdom. In ever‐larger dynamic systems, such as the food system, it is increasingly difficult for decision makers (DMs) to effectively account for all the variables within the system that may influence the outcomes of interest under enactments of various candidate policies. Each of the influencing variables is likely, themselves, to be dynamic subsystems with expert domains supported by sophisticated probabilistic models. Recent increases in food poverty in the United Kingdom have raised the questions about the main drivers of food insecurity, how this may be changing over time and how evidence can be used in evaluating policy for decision support. In this context, an IDSS is proposed for household food security to allow DMs to compare several candidate policies which may affect the outcome of food insecurity at the household level.

Suggested Citation

  • Martine J. Barons & Thais C. O. Fonseca & Andy Davis & Jim Q. Smith, 2022. "A decision support system for addressing food security in the United Kingdom," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(2), pages 447-470, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:185:y:2022:i:2:p:447-470
    DOI: 10.1111/rssa.12771
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martine J. Barons & Sophia K. Wright & Jim Q. Smith, 2018. "Eliciting Probabilistic Judgements for Integrating Decision Support Systems," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Luis C. Dias & Alec Morton & John Quigley (ed.), Elicitation, chapter 0, pages 445-478, Springer.
    2. Martine J Barons & Willy Aspinall, 2019. "Anticipated impacts of Brexit scenarios on UK food prices and implications for policies on poverty and health: a structured expert judgement approach," Papers 1904.03053, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2020.
    3. Coleman-Jensen, Alisha & Rabbitt, Matthew P. & Gregory, Christian A. & Singh, Anita, 2016. "Household Food Security in the United States in 2015," Economic Research Report 262191, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    4. Manuele Leonelli & James Smith, 2015. "Bayesian decision support for complex systems with many distributed experts," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 235(1), pages 517-542, December.
    5. Martine J Barons & Willy Aspinall, 2020. "Anticipated impacts of Brexit scenarios on UK food prices and implications for policies on poverty and health: a structured expert judgement update," Papers 2010.15484, arXiv.org.
    6. Coleman-Jensen, Alisha & Rabbitt, Matthew P. & Gregory, Christian A. & Singh, Anita, 2016. "Statistical Supplement to Household Food Security in the United States in 2015," Administrative Publications 292103, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
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