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Recovering Keynesian Phillips curve theory: hysteresis of ideas and the natural rate of unemployment

Author

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  • Thomas Palley

    (Independent Economist, Washington, DC, USA)

Abstract

Economic theory is prone to hysteresis. Once an idea is adopted, it is difficult to change. In the 1970s, the economics profession abandoned the Keynesian Phillips curve and adopted Milton Friedman's natural rate of unemployment (NRU) hypothesis. The shift was facilitated by a series of lucky breaks. Despite much evidence against the NRU, and much evidence and theoretical argument supportive of the Keynesian Phillips curve, the NRU hypothesis remains ascendant. The hypothesis has had an enormous impact on macroeconomic theory and policy. 2018 is the 50th anniversary of Friedman's introduction of the NRU hypothesis. The anniversary offers an opportunity to challenge rather than celebrate it.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Palley, 2018. "Recovering Keynesian Phillips curve theory: hysteresis of ideas and the natural rate of unemployment," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 6(4), pages 473-492, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:elg:rokejn:v:6:y:2018:i:4:p473-492
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mark Setterfield & Robert A. Blecker, 2022. "Structural change in the US Phillips curve, 1948-2021: the role of power and institutions," Working Papers 2201, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    2. Philipp Heimberger, 2021. "Do higher public debt levels reduce economic growth?," FMM Working Paper 74-2021, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    3. Ricardo Summa & Julia Braga, 2020. "The (conflict-augmented) Phillips Curve is alive and well," Working Papers 0055, ASTRIL - Associazione Studi e Ricerche Interdisciplinari sul Lavoro.
    4. Ricardo Summa & Julia Braga, 2020. "Two routes back to the old Phillips curve: the amended mainstream model and the conflict augmented alternative," Bulletin of Political Economy, Bulletin of Political Economy, vol. 14(1), pages 81-115, June.
    5. Saša Obradoviæ & Lela Ristiæ & Nemanja Lojanica, 2018. "Are unemployment rates stationary for SEE10 countries? Evidence from linear and nonlinear dynamics," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 36(2), pages 559-583.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    natural rate of unemployment; Keynesian Phillips curve; Friedman; Tobin;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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