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On the public debt and growth threshold: one size does not necessarily fit all

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  • El Mostafa Bentour

Abstract

In a time of high debt and sluggish economic growth, the Reinhart and Rogoff (2010) conjecture of a common 90% debt threshold for advanced economies triggered a controversial debate among economists and policy-makers. We analyse the relationship between public debt and economic growth for a sample of 20 advanced economies over the period of 1880–2010, using a regression kink model with an unknown threshold proposed by Hansen (2017). We show that the relationship between public debt and economic growth is time-varying and state-dependent. Particularly, the public debt and economic growth relationship is instable for each country in the sample across the whole period of 1880–2010, and the postwar period of 1950–2010, and subject to data and country heterogeneities. These findings reject the existence of any common threshold fitting all countries and call for more theory-based models that take into account fundamentals that vary between countries and impact debt–growth interactions.

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  • El Mostafa Bentour, 2021. "On the public debt and growth threshold: one size does not necessarily fit all," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(11), pages 1280-1299, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:53:y:2021:i:11:p:1280-1299
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2020.1828806
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    Cited by:

    1. Ben Salem, Leila & Nouira, Ridha & Saafi, Sami & Rault, Christophe, 2024. "How do oil prices affect the GDP and its components? New evidence from a time-varying threshold model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    2. Oguzhan Bozatli & Seref Can Serin & Murat Demir, 2024. "The causal relationship between public debt and economic growth in G7 countries: new evidence from time and frequency domain approaches," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 1-27, June.
    3. Mindaugas Butkus & Diana Cibulskiene & Lina Garsviene & Janina Seputiene, 2021. "Empirical Evidence on Factors Conditioning the Turning Point of the Public Debt–Growth Relationship," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-22, December.
    4. Blessy Augustine & O.P.C. Muhammed Rafi, 2021. "Public Debt - Economic Growth: Evidence of a Non-linear Relationship," BASE University Working Papers 11/2021, BASE University, Bengaluru, India.
    5. Augustine, Blessy & Rafi, O.P.C. Muhammed, 2023. "Public debt - economic growth nexus in emerging and developing economies: Exploring nonlinearity," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    6. Mindaugas Butkus & Diana Cibulskiene & Lina Garsviene & Janina Seputiene, 2021. "The Heterogeneous Public Debt–Growth Relationship: The Role of the Expenditure Multiplier," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-22, April.
    7. Mihaela Onofrei & Ionel Bostan & Bogdan Narcis Firtescu & Angela Roman & Valentina Diana Rusu, 2022. "Public Debt and Economic Growth in EU Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-23, October.
    8. Vese Qehaja-Kekae & Driton Qehaja & Arber Hoti, 2023. "The Effect of Fiscal Deficits on Economic Growth: Evidence from Eurozone Countries," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 6, pages 3-18.
    9. El Mostafa Bentour, 2022. "The effects of public debt accumulation and business cycle on government spending multipliers," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(19), pages 2231-2256, April.
    10. Philipp Heimberger, 2021. "Do Higher Public Debt Levels Reduce Economic Growth?," wiiw Working Papers 211, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    11. Olesea Speian, 2024. "Debt Dynamics under Uncertainty: Evidence from the Republic of Moldova," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 50-63.

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