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Debt and growth: Is there a constant tipping point?

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  • Yang, Lixiong
  • Su, Jen-Je

Abstract

This paper highlights the crucial role of a time-varying threshold effect of public debt on economic growth. Our contribution is twofold. First, we extend the constant-threshold regression kink model of Hansen (2017) by allowing for a time-varying, state-dependent threshold. Second, we apply our model to investigate the effect of debt on growth, using data from the U.S. over the period of 1791–2009. Our empirical results clearly support a nonlinear debt-threshold effect and the threshold is time-varying and state-dependent.

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  • Yang, Lixiong & Su, Jen-Je, 2018. "Debt and growth: Is there a constant tipping point?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 133-143.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:87:y:2018:i:c:p:133-143
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2018.06.002
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    2. Ponomarenko, Alexey & Tatarintsev, Stas, 2023. "Incorporating financial development indicators into early warning systems," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    3. Lixiong Yang & Chingnun Lee & I‐Po Chen, 2021. "Threshold model with a time‐varying threshold based on Fourier approximation," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 406-430, July.
    4. Kassouri, Yacouba & Altıntaş, Halil & Alancioğlu, Erdal & Kacou, Kacou Yves Thierry, 2021. "New insights on the debt-growth nexus: A combination of the interactive fixed effects and panel threshold approach," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 40-55.
    5. Gómez Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón & Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada, 2019. "Re-examining the debt-growth nexus: A grouped fixed-effect approach," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 374, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    6. Christian Richter & Sara El Asy, 2019. "Is Public Debt Always Harmful to Economic Growth," Working Papers 52, The German University in Cairo, Faculty of Management Technology.
    7. An, Sufang & An, Feng & Gao, Xiangyun & Wang, Anjian, 2023. "Early warning of critical transitions in crude oil price," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
    8. Lixiong Yang, 2023. "Variable selection in threshold model with a covariate-dependent threshold," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 189-202, July.
    9. Philipp Heimberger, 2023. "Do higher public debt levels reduce economic growth?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(4), pages 1061-1089, September.
    10. Yilmaz BAYAR & Mahmut Unsal SASMAZ, 2019. "Foreign borrowing, foreign direct investment inflows and economic growth in European Union transition economies," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 10, pages 107-125, December.
    11. Lixiong Yang, 2020. "State-dependent biases and the quality of China’s preliminary GDP announcements," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2663-2687, December.
    12. Philipp Heimberger, 2021. "Do Higher Public Debt Levels Reduce Economic Growth?," wiiw Working Papers 211, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    13. Alimov, Behzod, 2019. "Private debt, public debt, and capital misallocation," IWH-CompNet Discussion Papers 7/2019, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    14. Alsamara, Mouyad & Mrabet, Zouhair & Mimouni, Karim, 2024. "The threshold effects of public debt on economic growth in MENA countries: Do energy endowments matter?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PB), pages 458-470.
    15. Olesea Speian, 2024. "Debt Dynamics under Uncertainty: Evidence from the Republic of Moldova," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 50-63.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Debt; Growth; Testing; Time-varying threshold;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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