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Public debt and economic growth conundrum: nonlinearity and inter-temporal relationship

Author

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  • Arčabić Vladimir

    (University of Zagreb, Department of Macroeconomics and Economic Development, Faculty of Economics and Business, Zagreb, Croatia)

  • Tica Josip

    (University of Zagreb, Department of Macroeconomics and Economic Development, Faculty of Economics and Business, Zagreb, Croatia)

  • Lee Junsoo

    (Department of Economics, Finance, and Legal Studies, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL, USA)

  • Sonora Robert J.

    (Fort Lewis College, Department of Economics, Durango, CO, USA)

Abstract

The influential paper by Reinhart and Rogoff (Reinhart, C. M., and K. S. Rogoff. 2010. “Growth in a Time of Debt.” The American Economic Review 100: 573–578.) has triggered a debate about the effects of the public debt on GDP growth. They argue that a debt-to-GDP ratio of over 90 percent has a deleterious effect on long-run economic growth. In this paper, we examine the inter-temporal relationship between public debt and GDP growth rates. We examine debt-to-GDP thresholds in nonlinear panel models, using various econometric strategies, methodologies, and data samples. We also evaluate confidence intervals around the estimated thresholds to determine the accuracy of estimated thresholds. Our results demonstrate that in the majority of estimated models, threshold values are not uniquely defined and the estimated coefficients are insignificant in most model specifications, as in Enders, Falk, and Siklos (Enders, W., B. L. Falk, and P. Siklos. 2007. “A Threshold Model of Real US GDP and the Problem of Constructing Confidence Intervals in TAR Models.” Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics 11: 1322.). Next, we examine the inter-temporal relationship between the public debt and economic growth using structural panel data models as well as reduced form panel VAR models. In contrast to the standard presumption in the literature, we find that the inter-temporal effect of economic growth on the public debt is strong, but the effect of the public debt on economic growth is weak. We find similar results in sub-samples that include countries where the public debt is over 90 percent of GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Arčabić Vladimir & Tica Josip & Lee Junsoo & Sonora Robert J., 2018. "Public debt and economic growth conundrum: nonlinearity and inter-temporal relationship," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(1), pages 1-20, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:22:y:2018:i:1:p:20:n:8
    DOI: 10.1515/snde-2016-0086
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Alfred Greiner, 2020. "Public Debt in a Descriptive Endogenous Growth Model," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 21(1), pages 173-187, May.
    2. Ly Dai Hung, 2021. "External Debts and Economic Growth when Debt Rating Matters," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(03), pages 1-26, October.
    3. Dmytro Zhuravlov & Mykhailo Prokhorenko & Tamara Chernadchuk & Vitaliy Omelyanenko & Valentyna Shevchenko, 2021. "The impact of the public debt of a country on the sustainable development of entrepreneurship," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 8(4), pages 654-667, June.
    4. Huang, Junbing & Luan, Bingjiang & He, Wanrui & Chen, Xiang & Li, Mengfan, 2022. "Energy technology of conservation versus substitution and energy intensity in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 244(PA).
    5. Luiggi Donayre & Ariuna Taivan, 2017. "Causality between Public Debt and Real Growth in the OECD: A Country-by-country Analysis," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 36(2), pages 156-170, June.
    6. Luan, Bingjiang & Zou, Hong & Chen, Shuxing & Huang, Junbing, 2021. "The effect of industrial structure adjustment on China’s energy intensity: Evidence from linear and nonlinear analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    7. S. Shvets?, 2020. "Modeling the impact of public debt on economic growth in Ukraine," Economy and Forecasting, Valeriy Heyets, issue 3, pages 146-156.
    8. D. Mukhsimova, 2020. "The Impact Of The Development Of Manufacturing On Economic Growth: The Experience Of Uzbekistan," Economy and Forecasting, Valeriy Heyets, issue 4, pages 137-155.
    9. Chinwe Ann Anisiobi & Callistus Tabansi Okeke & Okaforocha Chika Maureen, 2023. "Public Debt Sustainability in Nigeria," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 7(3), pages 484-494, March.
    10. Abdul Jalil, 2020. "Debt Sustainability: Economic Growth is the Panacea," PIDE Knowledge Brief 2020:19, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    11. Fabienne Lara Dascher, 2020. "Sustainable Debt Policy Rules and Growth in a Small Open Economy Model: Is a Balanced Government Budget Worthwhile?," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 62(3), pages 373-397, September.
    12. Seržanė Milena & Askoldavičiūtė Viktorija, 2022. "Investigation of Factors Determining Lithuanian Public Debt to Foreign Countries," Economics and Culture, Sciendo, vol. 19(1), pages 54-63, June.

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