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Futures Markets and Spot Price Volatility: A Case Study

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  • C. W. Morgan

Abstract

Futures markets, where they exist, can play a crucial role in determining the storage decision in the underlying spot (physical) market. The futures market acts as a conduit for market information and is a gatherer of agents' expectations about the future prospects for the spot market. As such, it is able to provide both price insurance and price discovery roles, the latter of which generates information for spot market traders and allows them to make rational storage decisions. If this were to be the case, then the efficiency of storage is improved which can potentially lead to a reduction in the volatility of spot prices over the marketing season. The existing literature is ambiguous as to whether futures markets can help spot markets price more efficiently. This paper seeks to examine whether this is the case in the British maincrop potato market by evaluating the volatility of spot prices over the period 1969–96 in a “before‐after” analysis of the impact of the introduction of futures trading in 1980. The results suggest that the introduction of the futures market has led to a reduction in price volatility, despite some problems in the operation of the futures market itself.

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  • C. W. Morgan, 1999. "Futures Markets and Spot Price Volatility: A Case Study," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(2), pages 247-257, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jageco:v:50:y:1999:i:2:p:247-257
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1477-9552.1999.tb00811.x
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    2. Santos, Joseph, 2003. "Commodity futures contracts: Furnishing an elastic currency in the nineteenth century," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 561-578, December.
    3. de Jong, Johan & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan, 2022. "The effect of futures markets on the stability of commodity prices," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 176-211.
    4. Xie, Xiaoyu & Zhu, Heliang, 2021. "The role of gold futures in mitigating the impact of economic uncertainty on spot prices: Evidence from China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    5. Jones, Keithly G., 2006. "The Effect of Relative Prices and Exchange Rates on Domestic Market Share of U.S. Red-Meat Utilization," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25424, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. Jian Li & Jean‐Paul Chavas, 2023. "A dynamic analysis of the distribution of commodity futures and spot prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 105(1), pages 122-143, January.
    7. C. W. Morgan, 2001. "Commodity futures markets in LDCs: a review and prospects," Progress in Development Studies, , vol. 1(2), pages 139-150, April.
    8. Babajide Fowowe, 2014. "Paper oil and physical oil: has speculative pressure in oil futures increased volatility in spot oil prices?," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 38(3), pages 356-372, September.
    9. Bohl, Martin T. & Stephan, Patrick M., 2013. "Does Futures Speculation Destabilize Spot Prices? New Evidence for Commodity Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1-21, November.

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