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The Effect of Futures Markets and Corners on Storage and Spot Price Variability

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  • Janet S. Netz

Abstract

When a futures market is introduced, the volume of storage should become more sensitive to changes in the return to storage. The increase in storage sensitivity means that storage will absorb a larger proportion of demand and supply shocks than it did previously, reducing spot price volatility. Data from the Chicago Board of Trade support the hypotheses of increased storage sensitivity and reduced spot price volatility. The effect of futures on spot price volatility is sensitive to the competitive structure of the futures market. Futures market manipulation causes spot price variance to increase. Despite manipulation, the development of the wheat futures market caused the coefficient of variation of spot price to decline significantly.

Suggested Citation

  • Janet S. Netz, 1995. "The Effect of Futures Markets and Corners on Storage and Spot Price Variability," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 77(1), pages 182-193.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:77:y:1995:i:1:p:182-193.
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    Cited by:

    1. Natcher, William C. & Weaver, Robert D., 1999. "The Transmission Of Price Volatility In The Beef Markets," 1999 Annual meeting, August 8-11, Nashville, TN 21511, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    2. Lin Xie & Jiahua Liao & Haiting Chen & Xuefei Yan & Xinyan Hu, 2021. "Is Futurization the Culprit for the Violent Fluctuation in China’s Apple Spot Price?," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-14, April.
    3. Hou, Yang & Li, Steven, 2014. "The impact of the CSI 300 stock index futures: Positive feedback trading and autocorrelation of stock returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 319-337.
    4. Gunther Capelle-Blancard & Dramane Coulibaly, 2011. "Index trading and agricultural commodity prices: A panel Granger causality analysis," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 126-127, pages 51-71.
    5. C. W. Morgan, 1999. "Futures Markets and Spot Price Volatility: A Case Study," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(2), pages 247-257, May.
    6. Benedicto Lukanima & Raymond Swaray, 2014. "Market Reforms and Commodity Price Volatility: The Case of East African Coffee Market," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(8), pages 1152-1185, August.
    7. C. W. Morgan & A. J. Rayner & C. Vaillant, 1999. "Agricultural futures markets in LDCs: a policy response to price volatility?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 893-910.
    8. Méndez Parra, Maximiliano, 2015. "Futures prices, trade and domestic supply of agricultural commodities," Economics PhD Theses 0115, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    9. Lenis Saweda O Liverpool‐Tasie & Charuta M. Parkhi, 2021. "Climate Risk and Technology Adoption in the Midstream of Crop Value Chains: Evidence from Nigerian Maize Traders," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(1), pages 158-179, February.
    10. Fizaine, Florian, 2015. "Minor metals and organized markets: News highlights about the consequences of establishing a futures market in a thin market with a dual trading price system," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(P2), pages 59-70.
    11. Kutan, Ali M. & Shi, Yukun & Wei, Mingzhe & Zhao, Yang, 2018. "Does the introduction of index futures stabilize stock markets? Further evidence from emerging markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 183-197.
    12. Alessandro Borin & Virginia Di Nino, 2012. "The role of financial investments in agricultural commodity derivatives markets," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 849, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    13. Erwin Bulte & Joost Pennings & Wim Heijman, 1996. "Futures markets, price stabilization and efficient exploitation of exhaustible resources," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 8(3), pages 351-366, October.
    14. Joseph M. Santos, 2014. "Back to the futures: An assessment of market performance on the early Winnipeg Grain Exchange," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 47(4), pages 1426-1448, November.
    15. Yang, Linghubo & Zhang, Dongxiang, 2013. "Can futures price be a powerful predictor? Frequency domain analysis on Chinese commodity market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 264-271.
    16. Ashish Kumar, 2015. "Impact of Currency Futures on Volatility in Exchange Rate," Paradigm, , vol. 19(1), pages 95-108, June.
    17. Santos, Joseph M., 2009. "Grain Futures Markets: What Have They Learned?," 2009 Conference, April 20-21, 2009, St. Louis, Missouri 53040, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    18. Jacks, David S., 2007. "Populists versus theorists: Futures markets and the volatility of prices," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 342-362, April.
    19. Kalantzis, Fotis G. & Milonas, Nikolaos T., 2013. "Analyzing the impact of futures trading on spot price volatility: Evidence from the spot electricity market in France and Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 454-463.
    20. de Jong, Johan & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan, 2022. "The effect of futures markets on the stability of commodity prices," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 176-211.
    21. Antoniou, Antonios & Koutmos, Gregory & Pericli, Andreas, 2005. "Index futures and positive feedback trading: evidence from major stock exchanges," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 219-238, March.
    22. C. W. Morgan, 2001. "Commodity futures markets in LDCs: a review and prospects," Progress in Development Studies, , vol. 1(2), pages 139-150, April.

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