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Speculative Intensity and Spot and Futures Price Variability

Author

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  • Driskill, Robert
  • McCafferty, Stephen
  • Sheffrin, Steven M

Abstract

This paper develops a simultaneous stochastic rational-expectations model of futures- and spot-price determination. Using the model, the authors find that increases in what they term speculative intensity increase spot-price variability arising from storage-cost shocks, but decrease spot-price variability from demand shocks. In contrast, increases in speculative intensity unambiguously decrease futures-price variability, regardless of the underlying source of disturbances. The authors are able to develop these comparative-static results because the model has a unique equilibrium. Copyright 1991 by Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Driskill, Robert & McCafferty, Stephen & Sheffrin, Steven M, 1991. "Speculative Intensity and Spot and Futures Price Variability," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(4), pages 737-751, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ecinqu:v:29:y:1991:i:4:p:737-51
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    Cited by:

    1. Batista Soares, David & Borocco, Etienne, 2022. "Rational destabilization in commodity markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    2. Erwin Bulte & Joost Pennings & Wim Heijman, 1996. "Futures markets, price stabilization and efficient exploitation of exhaustible resources," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 8(3), pages 351-366, October.
    3. David Batista Soares & Etienne Borocco, 2022. "Rational destabilization in commodity markets [Déstabilisation rationnelle des marchés de matières premières]," Post-Print hal-03256534, HAL.
    4. Chatrath, Arjun & Ramchander, Sanjay & Song, Frank, 1998. "Speculative activity and stock market volatility," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 323-337, July.
    5. C. W. Morgan, 1999. "Futures Markets and Spot Price Volatility: A Case Study," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(2), pages 247-257, May.

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