IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bkr/journl/v79y2020i1p93-112.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Expected and Unexpected Consequences of Russian Pension Increase in 2010

Author

Listed:
  • Ivan Suvorov

    (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)

Abstract

This paper studies the effects of the pension increase in Russia in 2010 on the labour force participation decisions and living arrangements of senior people and their family members. There is not much research on the effects of pension rises in Russia. In particular, researchers have not yet analysed the influence of pension increases in Russia on nonelderly people nor the heterogeneity of this influence. The increase in pensions in 2010 is of particular interest due to its unique magnitude, its relative independence from economic trends in Russia at that time, and its plausible exogeneity for pensioners. This study provides evidence that this jump in pension caused an approximately 5 percentage point increase in the relative number of seniors who chose to retire. The effect was stronger in the two biggest cities of Russia, namely Moscow and Saint Petersburg, where before 2010 a substantial number of people continued to work after reaching the pension age. One out of four employed pensioners living in these cities left the labour force in 2010. In addition, this paper shows a relatively unexpected external effect on younger individuals. The labour force participation decisions of younger people who lived with pension receivers were influenced considerably. The non-seniors who lived with pensioners, compared with their peers, were less likely to work or to look for jobs. The change in pensions also affected living arrangements. The rate of pension receivers living with their children and grandchildren went up significantly. Thus, the evidence from the 2010 pension increase highlights the fact that policies might have an impact not only on the target group of population, but on the family members of this group as well.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivan Suvorov, 2020. "Expected and Unexpected Consequences of Russian Pension Increase in 2010," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 79(1), pages 93-112, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:bkr:journl:v:79:y:2020:i:1:p:93-112
    DOI: 10.31477/rjmf.202001.92
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://rjmf.econs.online/upload/iblock/c41/Consequences-Russian-Pension-Increase-2010.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.31477/rjmf.202001.92?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jonathan Gruber & Kevin Milligan & David A. Wise, 2009. "Social Security Programs and Retirement Around the World: The Relationship to Youth Employment, Introduction and Summary," NBER Working Papers 14647, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. David S. Lee & Thomas Lemieux, 2010. "Regression Discontinuity Designs in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 281-355, June.
    3. A. Solovyev., 2013. "The Macroanalysis of Russian Pension System," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 4.
    4. Evgeny Gontmakher, 2009. "The Pension System of Russia after the Reform of 2002: Challenges and Prospects," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, issue 1-2, pages 190-206.
    5. Day Manoli & Andrea Weber, 2016. "Nonparametric Evidence on the Effects of Financial Incentives on Retirement Decisions," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 160-182, November.
    6. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2009. "Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8769.
    7. Lokshin, Michael & Harris, Kathleen Mullan & Popkin, Barry M., 2000. "Single Mothers in Russia: Household Strategies for Coping with Poverty," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 2183-2198, December.
    8. Malkova, Olga, 2020. "Did Soviet elderly employment respond to financial incentives? Evidence from pension reforms," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    9. E. Gurvich & Yu. Sonina., 2012. "Microanalysis of the Russia’," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 2.
    10. Maleva, T. & Sinyavskaya, O., 2010. "Pension Age Increase: Pro et Contra," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, issue 8, pages 117-137.
    11. Marco Manacorda & Enrico Moretti, 2006. "Why do Most Italian Youths Live with Their Parents? Intergenerational Transfers and Household Structure," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(4), pages 800-829, June.
    12. Afanasiev, S.A., 2003. "Pension Reform in Russia: First Year of Implementing," Discussion Paper 146, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    13. Mr. David Hauner, 2008. "Macroeconomic Effects of Pension Reform in Russia," IMF Working Papers 2008/201, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Katja Maria Kaufmann & Yasemin Özdemir & Han Ye, 2022. "Spillover Effects of Old-Age Pension across Generations: Family Labor Supply and Child Outcomes," CESifo Working Paper Series 9813, CESifo.
    2. Hippolyte d'Albis & Karina Doorley & Elena Stancanelli, 2021. "Older mothers' employment and marriage stability when the nest is empty," PSE Working Papers halshs-03203063, HAL.
    3. Giesecke, Matthias & Jäger, Philipp, 2021. "Pension incentives and labor supply: Evidence from the introduction of universal old-age assistance in the UK," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    4. Art B. Owen & Hal Varian, 2018. "Optimizing the tie-breaker regression discontinuity design," Papers 1808.07563, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2020.
    5. Vergolini, Loris & Zanini, Nadir, 2015. "Away, but not too far from home. The effects of financial aid on university enrolment decisions," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 91-109.
    6. Johnsen, Julian V. & Willén, Alexander, 2022. "The effect of negative income shocks on pensioners," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    7. Andrew E. Clark & Elena Stancanelli, 2016. "Individual Well-Being and the Allocation of Time Before and After the Boston Marathon Terrorist Bombing," PSE Working Papers hal-01302843, HAL.
    8. Berg Claudia & Emran M. Shahe, 2020. "Microfinance and Vulnerability to Seasonal Famine in a Rural Economy: Evidence from Monga in Bangladesh," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(3), pages 1-36, July.
    9. Lange, Ian & Moro, Mirko & Rahman, Mohammad, 2014. "Policy Labels and Investment Decision-making," Stirling Economics Discussion Papers 2014-01, University of Stirling, Division of Economics.
    10. Remmerswaal, Minke & Boone, Jan & Bijlsma, Michiel & Douven, Rudy, 2019. "Cost-sharing design matters: A comparison of the rebate and deductible in healthcare," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 83-97.
    11. Luís Felipe Batista de Oliveira & Rafael Terra, 2016. "Impact of school day extension on educational outcomes: evidence from Mais Educação in Brazil," One Pager 329, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
    12. Ponzo, Michela & Scoppa, Vincenzo, 2016. "Cost-Sharing and Use of Health Services in Italy: Evidence from a Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design," IZA Discussion Papers 9772, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Michela Ponzo & Vincenzo Scoppa, 2015. "Experts’ awards and economic success: evidence from an Italian literary prize," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 39(4), pages 341-367, November.
    14. Dahlberg, Matz & Mani, Kevin & Öhman, Mattias & Wanhainen, Anders, 2016. "Health Information and Well-Being: Evidence from an Asymptomatic Disease," Working Paper Series 2016:2, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    15. Kiesewetter, Dirk & Manthey, Johannes, 2017. "The relationship between corporate governance and tax avoidance - evidence from Germany using a regression discontinuity design," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 218, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    16. Andrew E. Clark & Orla Doyle & Elena Stancanelli, 2017. "The Impact of Terrorism on Well-being: Evidence from the Boston Marathon Bombing," Working Papers 201717, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    17. Thang Dang, 2018. "Do the more educated utilize more health care services? Evidence from Vietnam using a regression discontinuity design," International Journal of Health Economics and Management, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 277-299, September.
    18. Paco Martorell & Damon Clark, 2010. "The Signaling Value of a High School Diploma," Working Papers 1248, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    19. Ponzo, Michela & Scoppa, Vincenzo, 2021. "Does demand for health services depend on cost-sharing? Evidence from Italy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    20. Dieterle, Steven & Bartalotti, Otávio C. & Brummet, Quentin O., 2016. "Revisiting the Effects of Unemployment Insurance Extensions on Unemployment: A Measurement Error-Corrected RD Approach," Staff General Research Papers Archive 3392, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    labour force; participation; pensions; retirement;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bkr:journl:v:79:y:2020:i:1:p:93-112. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Olga Kuvshinova (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cbrgvru.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.