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Macroeconomic Effects of Pension Reform in Russia

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  • Mr. David Hauner

Abstract

Putting the pension system on a sustainable footing arguably remains the biggest challenge in Russia's economic policies. The debate about the policy options was hitherto constrained by the absence of general equilibrium analysis. This paper fills this gap by simulating their macroeconomic effects in a DSGE model calibrated to Russia's economy-the first of its kind to the best of our knowledge. The results suggest that a minimum benefit level in the public system should optimally be financed through lower government consumption, while higher taxation of labor and capital should be avoided. Reducing public investment spending is superior to increasing consumption taxes unless investment generates high rates of return.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. David Hauner, 2008. "Macroeconomic Effects of Pension Reform in Russia," IMF Working Papers 2008/201, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2008/201
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Michael Kumhof, 2007. "A Party without a Hangover? On the Effects of U.S. Government Deficits," IMF Working Papers 2007/202, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Mr. David Hauner, 2007. "Benchmarking the Efficiency of Public Expenditure in the Russian Federation," IMF Working Papers 2007/246, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Wang, Yan & Xu, Dianqing & Wang, Zhi & Zhai, Fan, 2004. "Options and impact of China's pension reform: a computable general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 105-127, March.
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    11. Ms. Dora M Iakova & Mr. Dennis P Botman, 2007. "Policy Challenges of Population Aging in Ireland," IMF Working Papers 2007/247, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Evsey T. Gurvich & Maria A. Ivanova, 2018. "Economic Effect of Population Ageing and Pension Reforms," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 5, pages 9-22, October.
    2. Ivan Suvorov, 2020. "Expected and Unexpected Consequences of Russian Pension Increase in 2010," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 79(1), pages 93-112, March.
    3. Ms. Daria V Zakharova & Ms. Charleen A Gust, 2012. "Strengthening Russia's Fiscal Framework," IMF Working Papers 2012/076, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Bussolo, Maurizio & Schotte, Simone & Matytsin, Mikhail, 2017. "Accounting for the bias against the life-cycle hypothesis in survey data: An example for Russia," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 9(C), pages 185-207.
    5. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "Russian Federation: Selected Issues Paper," IMF Staff Country Reports 2011/295, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Çagaçan Deger, 2008. "Pension Reform in an OLG Model with Multiple Social Security Systems," ERC Working Papers 0805, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Oct 2008.
    7. Klapper, Leora & Panos, Georgios A., 2011. "Financial literacy and retirement planning: the Russian case," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(4), pages 599-618, October.
    8. Frank Eich & Mauricio Soto & Ms. Charleen A Gust, 2012. "Reforming the Public Pension System in the Russian Federation," IMF Working Papers 2012/201, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Montserrat Pallares-Miralles & Carolina Romero & Edward Whitehouse, 2012. "A Worldwide Overview of Facts and Figures," World Bank Publications - Reports 11891, The World Bank Group.

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