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Food Price Volatility and Macroeconomic Factors: Evidence from GARCH and GARCH-X Estimates

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  • Apergis, Nicholas
  • Rezitis, Anthony N.

Abstract

This article examines food price volatility in Greece and how it is affected by short-run deviations between food prices and macroeconomic factors. The methodology follows the GARCH and GARCH-X models. The results show that there exists a positive effect between the deviations and food price volatility. The results are highly important for producers and consumers because higher volatility augments the uncertainty in the food markets. Once the participants receive a signal that the food market is volatile, this might lead them to ask for increased government intervention in the allocation of investment resources and this could reduce overall welfare.

Suggested Citation

  • Apergis, Nicholas & Rezitis, Anthony N., 2011. "Food Price Volatility and Macroeconomic Factors: Evidence from GARCH and GARCH-X Estimates," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 43(1), pages 1-16, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:joaaec:100650
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.100650
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    1. Alan G. Isaac & David E. Rapach, 1996. "Monetary Shocks and Real Farm Prices: A Re-Examination," Others 9602001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Chambers, Robert G. & Just, Richard E., 1982. "An investigation of the effect of monetary factors on agriculture," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 235-247.
    3. Alan G. Isaac & David E. Rapach, 1997. "Monetary Shocks and Relative Farm Prices: A Re-examination," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(4), pages 1332-1339.
    4. von Braun, Joachim & Torero, Maximo, 2009. "Exploring the Price Spike," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 24(1), pages 1-6.
    5. Robert G. Chambers, 1985. "Credit Constraints, Interest Rates, and Agricultural Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 67(2), pages 390-395.
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    2. Shokoohi, Zeinab & Saghaian, Sayed, 2022. "Nexus of energy and food nutrition prices in oil importing and exporting countries: A panel VAR model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    3. Ajibade, Toyin Benedict & Ayinde, Opeyemi Eyitayo & Abdoulaye, Tahirou, 2020. "Food Price Volatility in Nigeria and Its Driving Factors: Evidence from Garch Estimates," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 8(4), October.
    4. Berger, Jurij & Dalheimer, Bernhard & Brümmer, Bernhard, 2021. "Effects of variable EU import levies on corn price volatility," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    5. Wang, Lu & Ma, Feng & Hao, Jianyang & Gao, Xinxin, 2021. "Forecasting crude oil volatility with geopolitical risk: Do time-varying switching probabilities play a role?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    6. Francq, Christian & Sucarrat, Genaro, 2017. "An equation-by-equation estimator of a multivariate log-GARCH-X model of financial returns," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 16-32.
    7. Shittu, Adebayo & Akerele, Dare & Haile, Mekbib & Edewor, Sarah, 2017. "How Do Trade and Domestic Policy Variables Stand among Influencers of Grain Price Volatility in Nigeria?," Conference papers 332826, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    8. Ayhan KAPUSUZOGLU & Xi LIANG & Nildag Basak CEYLAN, 2018. "Macroeconomic impacts of global food price shocks on the economy of Turkey," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 64(11), pages 517-525.
    9. Sukati, Mphumuzi, 2013. "Measuring Maize Price Volatility in Swaziland using ARCH/GARCH approach," MPRA Paper 51840, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Anthony N. Rezitis & Shaikh Mostak Ahammad, 2016. "Investigating The Interdependency Of Agricultural Production Volatility Spillovers Between Bangladesh, India, And Pakistan," Review of Urban & Regional Development Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(1), pages 32-54, March.
    11. Jittima Singvejsakul & Yaovarate Chaovanapoonphol & Budsara Limnirankul, 2021. "Modeling the Price Volatility of Cassava Chips in Thailand: Evidence from Bayesian GARCH-X Estimates," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-10, September.
    12. Larisa Nicoleta POP & Flavius ROVINARU & Mihaela ROVINARU, 2013. "Assessing The Price Risk On The Romanian Agricultural Market: Analyses And Implications," Interdisciplinary Management Research, Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, Faculty of Economics, Croatia, vol. 9, pages 469-479.
    13. Kurmas Akdogan, 2018. "Mean-reversion and structural change in European food prices," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 18(4), pages 163-173.
    14. Nigar ZEHRA* & Ambreen FATIMA**, 2019. "FOOD PRICE VOLATILITY: A Comparative Analysis among Major Cities of Pakistan," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 29(1), pages 71-91.
    15. Mourad Zmami & Ousama Ben-Salha, 2019. "Does Oil Price Drive World Food Prices? Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear ARDL Modeling," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-18, February.
    16. Kris Boudt & Hong Anh Luu, 2022. "Estimation and decomposition of food price inflation risk," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 31(2), pages 295-319, June.
    17. Hassan, Aminu & Ibrahim, Masud Usman & Bala, Ahmed Jinjiri, 2024. "Vulnerability of a developing stock market to openness: One-way return and volatility transmissions," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    18. Saravia-Matus, Silvia L. & Gomez y Paloma, Sergio & Mary, Sebastien, 2012. "Economics of Food Security: Selected Issues," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 1(1), pages 1-16, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demand and Price Analysis; Marketing;

    JEL classification:

    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General
    • Q19 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Other

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