IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/jlaare/8607.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A General Equilibrium Analysis of Foreign and Domestic Demand Shocks Arising from Mad Cow Disease in the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Devadoss, Stephen
  • Holland, David W.
  • Stodick, Leroy
  • Ghosh, Joydeep

Abstract

The discovery of the first case of mad cow disease in the United States in 2003 reverberated across the beef and cattle industry. This study employs a general equilibrium model to analyze the potential economic effects of mad cow disease on the beef, cattle, and other meat industries under three scenarios, ranging form most favorable to most pessimistic. The scenario with 90% foreign demand decline and 10% domestic demand reduction generates results consistent with the actual outcomes after the mad cow disease outbreak. Only if domestic demand declines significantly will the economic hardship in the U.S. beef and cattle industry be very large.

Suggested Citation

  • Devadoss, Stephen & Holland, David W. & Stodick, Leroy & Ghosh, Joydeep, 2006. "A General Equilibrium Analysis of Foreign and Domestic Demand Shocks Arising from Mad Cow Disease in the United States," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 31(2), pages 1-13, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:8607
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.8607
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/8607/files/31020441.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.8607?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Feenstra, Robert C, 1994. "New Product Varieties and the Measurement of International Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 157-177, March.
    2. Clinton R. Shiells & Kenneth A. Reinert, 1993. "Armington Models and Terms-of-Trade Effects: Some Econometric Evidence for North America," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 26(2), pages 299-316, May.
    3. Reinert, Kenneth A. & Roland-Holst, David W., 1992. "Armington elasticities for United States manufacturing sectors," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 631-639, October.
    4. Latouche, K. & Rainelli, P. & Vermersch, D., 1998. "Food safety issues and the BSE scare: some lessons from the French case," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 347-356, October.
    5. Roland Herrmann & Stanley R. Thompson & Stephanie Krischik-Bautz, 2002. "Bovine spongiform encephalopathy and generic promotion of beef: An analysis for “quality from Bavaria”," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(3), pages 369-385.
    6. Scott McDonald & Deborah Roberts, 1998. "The Economy‐Wide Effects of the BSE Crisis: A CGE Analysis," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(3), pages 458-471, September.
    7. Verbeke, Wim & Ward, Ronald W., 2001. "A fresh meat almost ideal demand system incorporating negative TV press and advertising impact," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 25(2-3), pages 359-374, September.
    8. Kapuscinski, Cezary A. & Warr, Peter G., 1999. "Estimation of Armington elasticities: an application to the Philippines," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 257-278, April.
    9. Purcell, Wayne D., 1998. "A Primer on Beef Demand," Staff Papers 232526, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    10. John Gilbert, 2003. "Trade Liberalization and Employment in Developing Economies of the Americas," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 94-95, pages 155-174.
    11. John Gilbert & Thomas Wahl, 2002. "Applied General Equilibrium Assessments of Trade Libereralisation in China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 697-731, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Arnaud Rault & Stéphane Krebs, 2011. "Catastrophic risk and risk management, what do we know about livestock epidemics? State of the art and prospects," Working Papers SMART 11-05, INRAE UMR SMART.
    2. Thomsen, Michael R. & McKenzie, Andrew M. & Power, Gabriel J., 2009. "Volatility Surface and Skewness in Live Cattle Futures Price Distributions with Application to North American BSE Announcements," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49354, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Bumsoo Lee & Jiyoung Park & Peter Gordon & James E. Moore II & Harry W. Richardson, 2012. "Estimating the State-by-State Economic Impacts of a Foot-and-Mouth Disease Attack," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 35(1), pages 26-47, January.
    4. John M. Marsh & Gary W. Brester & Vincent H. Smith, 2008. "Effects of North American BSE Events on U.S. Cattle Prices," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 30(1), pages 136-150.
    5. de Menezes, Taís C. & Countryman, Amanda M. & Hagerman, Amy D. & Galvão de Miranda, Sílvia H., . "Economy-Wide Effects of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy in Brazil," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 49(3).
    6. Mellado, Aida Gonzalez, 2008. "Analysing effects of trade liberalization on household expenditure with an extended version of the GTAP model: The case of Mexico," Conference papers 331740, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    7. Christine Wieck & David Holland, 2010. "The economic effect of the Canadian BSE outbreak on the US economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(8), pages 935-946.
    8. Xue Peng & Fulin Wang & Jiquan Wang & Chang Qian, 2022. "Research on Food Safety Control Based on Evolutionary Game Method from the Perspective of the Food Supply Chain," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-21, July.
    9. Rault, Arnaud & Krebs, Stephane, 2011. "Livestock epidemics and catastrophic risk management: State of the art and prospects on economic dynamics," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114793, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. Wang, Zun & Sage, Jeremy & Goodchild, Anne & Jessup, Eric & Casavant, Kenneth & Knutson, Rachel L., 2013. "A Framework for Determining Highway Truck-Freight Benefits and Economic Impacts," Journal of the Transportation Research Forum, Transportation Research Forum, vol. 52(2).
    11. David Holland, 2010. "What happens when exports expand: some ideas for closure of regional computable general equilibrium models," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 45(2), pages 439-451, October.
    12. Watson, Philip S. & Castelin, Kimberly & Salant, Priscilla & Wulfhorst, J.D., 2012. "Estimating the Impacts of a Reduction in the Foreign-born Labor Supply on a State Economy: A Nested CGE Analysis of the Idaho Economy," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 42(1), pages 51-74, Spring.
    13. Valentina G. Bruno & Bahattin Büyükşahin & Michel A. Robe, 2017. "The Financialization of Food?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 99(1), pages 243-264.
    14. Qin, Meng & Su, Chi-Wei & Tao, Ran & Umar, Muhammad, 2020. "Is factionalism a push for gold price?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    15. Alexandre Cordier & Jean Gohin & Stephane Krebs & Arnaud Rault, 2013. "Dynamic Impacts of a Catastrophic Production Event: The Foot‐and‐Mouth Disease Case," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(3), pages 480-492, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Elena Lopez & Emilio Pagoulatos, 2002. "Estimates and Determinants of Armington Elasticities for the U.S. Food Industry," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 247-258, September.
    2. Jorge Chami Batista & Nelson Isaac Abrahão Junior, 2005. "Aggregation Problems in Estimates of Armington Elasticities and Pass-Through Effects," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 6(2), pages 329-355.
    3. Wunderlich, A.C. & Kohler, A., 2018. "Using empirical Armington and demand elasticities in computable equilibrium models: An illustration with the CAPRI model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 70-80.
    4. Delahaye, Elliot & Milot, Catherine, 2020. "Measuring the UK Economy’s Armington Elasticities," Conference papers 333170, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    5. Miguel, Carlos de & O'Ryan, Raúl & Pereira, Mauricio & Carriquiri, Bruno, 2009. "Energy shocks, fiscal policy and CO2 emissions in Chile," Conference papers 331817, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    6. Cassoni, Adriana & Flores, Manuel, 2008. "Methodological shortcomings in estimating Armington elasticities," Conference papers 331813, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    7. repec:lic:licosd:8900 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Olekseyuk, Zoryana & Schürenberg-Frosch, Hannah, 2016. "Are Armington elasticities different across countries and sectors? A European study," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 328-342.
    9. Kim J. Ruhl, 2008. "The International Elasticity Puzzle," Working Papers 08-30, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    10. Satoshi Nakano & Kazuhiko Nishimura, 2024. "On estimating Armington elasticities for Japan's meat imports," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(1), pages 189-200, February.
    11. Welsch, Heinz, 2008. "Armington elasticities for energy policy modeling: Evidence from four European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2252-2264, September.
    12. Lopez Elena & Pagoulatos Emilio, 2017. "Estimates and Determinants of Armington Elasticities for the U.S. Food Industry," Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, De Gruyter, vol. 15(2), pages 1-8, December.
    13. Welsch, Heinz, 2006. "Armington elasticities and induced intra-industry specialization: The case of France, 1970-1997," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 556-567, May.
    14. Francois, Joseph & Manchin, Miriam & Martin, Will, 2013. "Market Structure in Multisector General Equilibrium Models of Open Economies," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1571-1600, Elsevier.
    15. Lisandro Abrego & John Whalley, 2003. "Goods market responses to trade shocks and trade and wages decompositions," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(3), pages 747-757, August.
    16. Yingheng Zhou & Erpeng Wang, 2011. "an consumers' attitudes towards the safety of milk powder after the melamine scandal in 2008 and the factors influencing the attitudes," China Agricultural Economic Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 3(1), pages 101-111, January.
    17. Jin, Hyun Joung & Koo, Won W., 2003. "The Effect Of Food-Safety Related Information On Consumers' Preference: The Case Of Bse Outbreak In Japan," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22043, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    18. Glenn W Harrison & Thomas F Rutherford & David G Tarr, 1997. "Opciones de Política Comercial para Chile: Una Evaluación Cuantitativa," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 34(102), pages 101-137.
    19. Christine Wieck & David Holland, 2010. "The economic effect of the Canadian BSE outbreak on the US economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(8), pages 935-946.
    20. Verbeke, Wim & Ward, Ronald W., 2001. "A fresh meat almost ideal demand system incorporating negative TV press and advertising impact," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 25(2-3), pages 359-374, September.
    21. Hillberry, Russell & Hummels, David, 2013. "Trade Elasticity Parameters for a Computable General Equilibrium Model," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1213-1269, Elsevier.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:8607. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/waeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.