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Modeling of Avian Influenza Mitigation Policies Within the Backyard Segment of the Poultry Sector

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  • Elbakidze, Levan

Abstract

This study presents a conceptual model for the analysis of avian influenza mitigation options within the small poultry farm sector (backyard flocks). The proposed model incorporates epidemiological susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) methodology into an economic cost-minimization framework. The model is used to investigate the implications and interdependencies of mitigation options that influence inter-flock contact rates of asymptomatic and symptomatic flocks, and reduce the duration of symptomatic and asymptomatic periods. The results indicates that for shorter asymptomatic periods the efforts to control inter-flock contract rates should concentrate on symptomatic flocks, while for longer asymptomatic periods the control of inter-flock contacts should be focused on asymptomatic flocks. Efforts to reduce the length of asymptomatic and symptomatic periods and efforts to reduce inter-flock contact rates function as substitute strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Elbakidze, Levan, 2008. "Modeling of Avian Influenza Mitigation Policies Within the Backyard Segment of the Poultry Sector," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 33(2), pages 1-17.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:42463
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.42463
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    Cited by:

    1. Mu, Jianhong H. & McCarl, Bruce A., 2010. "Avian Influenza outbreaks and poultry production mitigation strategies in the U.S," 115th Joint EAAE/AAEA Seminar, September 15-17, 2010, Freising-Weihenstephan, Germany 116452, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Armbruster, Walter J., 2009. "Challenges and Issues in the Next Decade: A Proactive Role for Agricultural and Resource Economists," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 38(1), pages 1-7, April.
    3. Seeger, Riley M. & Hagerman, Amy D. & Johnson, Kamina K. & Pendell, Dustin L. & Marsh, Thomas L., 2021. "When poultry take a sick leave: Response costs for the 2014–2015 highly pathogenic avian influenza epidemic in the USA," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    4. Boisvert, Richard N. & Kay, David & Turvey, Calum G., 2012. "Macroeconomic costs to large scale disruptions of food production: The case of foot- and-mouth disease in the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1921-1930.

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    Livestock Production/Industries;

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