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Economic Impacts of Regionalization of a Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Outbreak in the United States

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  • Paarlberg, Philip L.
  • Seitzinger, Ann Hillberg
  • Lee, John G.

Abstract

This analysis examines the economic impact of an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) and the consequences of regionalization. The results suggest that an outbreak would have serious economic effects. Depending on the regionalization scenario, returns to capital and management in the poultry meat and egg sectors would fall between $602 million and $853 million dollars over 16 quarters. Consumers of poultry meat lose $900 million in consumer surplus in the first four quarters, a decline of 10.7%. Egg consumer surplus falls 17.1%. Regionalization lowers the economic welfare losses for producers because it dampens the export loss.

Suggested Citation

  • Paarlberg, Philip L. & Seitzinger, Ann Hillberg & Lee, John G., 2007. "Economic Impacts of Regionalization of a Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Outbreak in the United States," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(2), pages 325-333, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jagaec:v:39:y:2007:i:02:p:325-333_02
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    1. Anne‐Célia Disdier & Carl Gaigné & Cristina Herghelegiu, 2023. "Do standards improve the quality of traded products?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(4), pages 1238-1290, November.
    2. Johnson, Kamina K. & Hagerman, Amy D. & Thompson, Jada M. & Kopral, Christine A., 2015. "Factors Influencing Export Value Recovery after Highly Pathogenic Poultry Disease Outbreaks," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 18(A), pages 1-16, July.
    3. Liang, Jing, 2010. "Three essays on food safety and foodborne illness," ISU General Staff Papers 201001010800002782, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    4. Zhou, Li & Li, Lingzhi & Lei, Lei, 2019. "Avian influenza, non-tariff measures and the poultry exports of China," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 63(1), January.
    5. Mu, Jianhong H. & McCarl, Bruce A., 2010. "Avian Influenza outbreaks and poultry production mitigation strategies in the U.S," 115th Joint EAAE/AAEA Seminar, September 15-17, 2010, Freising-Weihenstephan, Germany 116452, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. Lan Yi & Jianping Tao & Caifeng Tan & Zhongkun Zhu, 2019. "Avian Influenza, Public Opinion, and Risk Spillover: Measurement, Theory, and Evidence from China’s Broiler Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-44, April.
    7. Lei, Lei & Zhou, Li, 2017. "Avian influenza, nontariff measures, and the poultry exports in the global value chain," IDE Discussion Papers 640, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    8. MacLachlan, Matthew J. & Boussios, David & Hagerman, Amy D., 2021. "Market Responses to Export Restrictions from Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Outbreaks," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 47(1), January.
    9. Wendkouni Jean‐Baptiste Zongo & Bruno Larue & Carl Gaigné, 2023. "On export duration puzzles," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 105(2), pages 453-478, March.
    10. Hillberg Seitzinger, Ann & Paarlberg, Philip L. & Mathews, Kenneth H., Jr., 2010. "National Impacts Of Changes In Livestock Disease Surveillance," Working papers 97837, Purdue University, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    11. repec:rre:publsh:v:50:y:2020:i:2 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Hagerman, Amy D. & Leister, Amanda M., 2012. "Economic Implications of a Foot and Mouth Disease Free Latin American Beef Sector," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124760, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Longworth, Natasha & Jongeneel, Roel A. & Saatkamp, Helmut W., 2021. "Management of Disease-triggered Shocks in Complex Value Chains: An Ex Ante Analysis of Market Effects of HPAI Control in the Dutch Egg Supply Chain," International Journal on Food System Dynamics, International Center for Management, Communication, and Research, vol. 12(03), September.
    14. Ann Hillberg Seitzinger & Philip L. Paarlberg & Kenneth H. Mathews, Jr., 2010. "National Impacts Of Changes In Livestock Disease Surveillance," Working Papers 10-10, Purdue University, College of Agriculture, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    15. Elbakidze, Levan, 2008. "Modeling of Avian Influenza Mitigation Policies Within the Backyard Segment of the Poultry Sector," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 33(2), pages 1-17.
    16. Davis, Christopher G., 2015. "Factors Influencing Global Poultry Trade," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 18(A), pages 1-12, July.
    17. Keller, Andrew & Boland, Michael & Çakır, Metin, 2020. "The Impact of an Increase in the Federal Minimum Wage on the Egg Industry," Staff Papers 303916, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    18. Amanda M. Countryman & Amy D. Hagerman, 2017. "Retrospective Economic Analysis of Foot and Mouth Disease Eradication in the Latin American Beef Sector," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(2), pages 257-273, April.

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