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The Relationships among Expected Inflation, Disagreement, and Uncertainty: Evidence from Matched Point and Density Forecasts

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Falck, Elisabeth & Hoffmann, Mathias & Hürtgen, Patrick, 2017. "Disagreement and monetary policy," Discussion Papers 29/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  2. Bajgiran, Amirsaman H. & Mardikoraem, Mahsa & Soofi, Ehsan S., 2021. "Maximum entropy distributions with quantile information," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 290(1), pages 196-209.
  3. Luca Rossi, 2020. "Indicators of uncertainty: a brief user’s guide," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 564, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  4. Katharina Glass & Ulrich Fritsche, 2015. "Real-time Macroeconomic Data and Uncertainty," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201406, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
  5. Zohar, Osnat, 2024. "Cyclicality of uncertainty and disagreement," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
  6. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2018. "Does The Great Recession Imply The End Of The Great Moderation? International Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(2), pages 745-760, April.
  7. Pfajfar, D. & Zakelj, B., 2012. "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation : Evidence from the Laboratory (Revised version of EBC DP 2011-014)," Other publications TiSEM 2b92a09f-918e-4614-978d-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  8. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2021_010 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Ambrocio, Gene, 2017. "The real effects of overconfidence and fundamental uncertainty shocks," Research Discussion Papers 37/2017, Bank of Finland.
  10. Istrefi, Klodiana & Mouabbi, Sarah, 2018. "Subjective interest rate uncertainty and the macroeconomy: A cross-country analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 296-313.
  11. Michael P. Clements, 2022. "Forecaster Efficiency, Accuracy, and Disagreement: Evidence Using Individual‐Level Survey Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(2-3), pages 537-568, March.
  12. Clements, Michael P., 2019. "Do forecasters target first or later releases of national accounts data?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1240-1249.
  13. Svetlana Makarova, 2014. "Risk and Uncertainty: Macroeconomic Perspective," UCL SSEES Economics and Business working paper series 129, UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies (SSEES).
  14. Peter Claeys, 2017. "Uncertainty spillover and policy reactions," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 35(82), pages 64-77, April.
  15. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2017_037 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Robert Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2021. "A Closer Look at the Behavior of Uncertainty and Disagreement: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(1), pages 233-253, February.
  17. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2018. "“A geometric approach to proxy economic uncertainty by a metric of disagreement among qualitative expectations”," IREA Working Papers 201806, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Mar 2018.
  18. Krüger, Fabian & Pavlova, Lora, 2019. "Quantifying subjective oncertainty in survey expectations," Working Papers 0664, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
  19. Istrefi, Klodiana & Mouabbi, Sarah, 2018. "Subjective interest rate uncertainty and the macroeconomy: A cross-country analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 296-313.
  20. Stanisławska, Ewa & Paloviita, Maritta, 2021. "Medium- vs. short-term consumer inflation expectations: Evidence from a new euro area survey," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2021, Bank of Finland.
  21. Tatsuro Senga, 2014. "A New Look at Uncertainty Shocks: Imperfect Information and Misallocation," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 042, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
  22. Michael Ehrmann & Paul Hubert, 2022. "Information Acquisition ahead of Monetary Policy Announcements," Working papers 897, Banque de France.
  23. Ilhan Kilic & Faruk Balli, 2024. "Measuring economic country-specific uncertainty in Türkiye," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(4), pages 1649-1689, October.
  24. Clements, Michael P, 2012. "Subjective and Ex Post Forecast Uncertainty : US Inflation and Output Growth," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 995, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  25. Meeks, Roland & Monti, Francesca, 2023. "Heterogeneous beliefs and the Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 41-54.
  26. Christian Grimme & Steffen Henzel & Elisabeth Wieland, 2014. "Inflation uncertainty revisited: a proposal for robust measurement," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1497-1523, December.
  27. Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Simon M. Potter & Robert W. Rich & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2010. "Improving survey measures of household inflation expectations," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 16(Aug/Sep).
  28. Fuest, Angela & Schmidt, Torsten, 2017. "Inflation expectation uncertainty, inflation and the output gap," Ruhr Economic Papers 673, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
  29. Gauvin, L. & McLoughlin, C. & Reinhardt, D., 2013. "Policy Uncertainty Spillovers to Emerging Markets - Evidence from Capital Flows," Working papers 435, Banque de France.
  30. Andrade, Philippe & Crump, Richard K. & Eusepi, Stefano & Moench, Emanuel, 2016. "Fundamental disagreement," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 106-128.
  31. Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2017. "Macroeconomic uncertainty indices for the Euro Area and its individual member countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 41-62, August.
  32. Glas, Alexander & Hartmann, Matthias, 2016. "Inflation uncertainty, disagreement and monetary policy: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 215-228.
  33. Kieren, Pascal & König-Kersting, Christian & Schmidt, Robert J. & Trautmann, Stefan T. & Theurich, Franziska, 2024. "First-order and higher-order inflation expectations: Evidence about households and firms," Discussion Papers 18/2024, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  34. Santiago Pinto & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Robert Sharp, 2015. "Learning About Consumer Uncertainty from Qualitative Surveys: As Uncertain As Ever," Working Paper 15-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  35. Thomas Gomez & Giulia Piccillo, 2023. "Does U.S. Monetary Policy Respond to Macroeconomic Uncertainty?," CESifo Working Paper Series 10407, CESifo.
  36. Steffen Henzel & Elisabeth Wieland, 2013. "Synchronization and Changes in International Inflation Uncertainty," CESifo Working Paper Series 4194, CESifo.
  37. Maria Elena Bontempi & Michele Frigeri & Roberto Golinelli & Matteo Squadrani, 2021. "EURQ: A New Web Search‐based Uncertainty Index," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(352), pages 969-1015, October.
  38. Ambrocio, Gene, 2017. "The real effects of overconfidence and fundamental uncertainty shocks," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 37/2017, Bank of Finland.
  39. Klein, Tony, 2021. "Agree to Disagree? Predictions of U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Changes between 2008 and 2020 and the Impact of the COVID19 Labor Shock," QBS Working Paper Series 2021/07, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's Business School.
  40. Manzan, Sebastiano, 2021. "Are professional forecasters Bayesian?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
  41. Andreas Dibiasi & David Iselin, 2021. "Measuring Knightian uncertainty," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 2113-2141, October.
  42. Stanisławska, Ewa & Paloviita, Maritta, 2021. "Responsiveness of consumers' medium-term inflation expectations : evidence from a new euro area survey," Research Discussion Papers 10/2021, Bank of Finland.
  43. Michael Clements, 2016. "Are Macro-Forecasters Essentially The Same? An Analysis of Disagreement, Accuracy and Efficiency," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2016-08, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
  44. Liu, Yang & Sheng, Xuguang Simon, 2019. "The measurement and transmission of macroeconomic uncertainty: Evidence from the U.S. and BRIC countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 967-979.
  45. Geoff Kenny & Thomas Kostka & Federico Masera, 2015. "Density characteristics and density forecast performance: a panel analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1203-1231, May.
  46. Binder, Carola C., 2017. "Measuring uncertainty based on rounding: New method and application to inflation expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 1-12.
  47. Clements, Michael P., 2024. "Do professional forecasters believe in the Phillips curve?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 1238-1254.
  48. Chen, Ji & Yang, Xinglin & Liu, Xiliang, 2022. "Learning, disagreement and inflation forecasting," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
  49. Ricco, Giovanni & Callegari, Giovanni & Cimadomo, Jacopo, 2014. "Signals from the Government: Policy Uncertainty and the Transmission of Fiscal Shocks," MPRA Paper 56136, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  50. Geoff Kenny & Thomas Kostka & Federico Masera, 2014. "How Informative are the Subjective Density Forecasts of Macroeconomists?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(3), pages 163-185, April.
  51. Kenneth Wallis, 2011. "Combining forecasts - forty years later," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1-2), pages 33-41.
  52. Andrade, P. & Ghysels, E. & Idier, J., 2012. "Tails of Inflation Forecasts and Tales of Monetary Policy," Working papers 407, Banque de France.
  53. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2023. "Forecasting inflation with a zero lower bound or negative interest rates: Evidence from point and density forecasts," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 91(3), pages 171-232, June.
  54. Kang, Wensheng & Lee, Kiseok & Ratti, Ronald A., 2014. "Economic policy uncertainty and firm-level investment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 42-53.
  55. Victor Lopez-Perez, 2016. "Macroeconomic Forecast Uncertainty In The Euro Area," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 11(1), pages 9-41, March.
  56. Michael Clements & Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2024. "An Investigation into the Uncertainty Revision Process of Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 24-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  57. Federico Bassetti & Roberto Casarin & Marco Del Negro, 2022. "A Bayesian Approach to Inference on Probabilistic Surveys," Staff Reports 1025, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  58. Pascal Kieren & Christian König-Kersting & Robert Schmidt & Stefan Trautmann & Franziska Heinicke, 2023. "First-Order and Higher-Order Inflation Expectations: Evidence about Households and Firms," Working Papers 2023-10, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
  59. Zhao, Yongchen, 2024. "Uncertainty of household inflation expectations: Reconciling point and density forecasts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
  60. Brent Meyer & Nicholas B. Parker & Xuguang Sheng, 2021. "Unit Cost Expectations and Uncertainty: Firms' Perspectives on Inflation," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2021-12a, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  61. Pfajfar, D. & Zakelj, B., 2012. "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation : Evidence from the Laboratory (Revised version of CentER DP 2011-053)," Discussion Paper 2012-072, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  62. Joshua C.C. Chan & Yong Song, 2018. "Measuring Inflation Expectations Uncertainty Using High‐Frequency Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(6), pages 1139-1166, September.
  63. Adra, Samer & Barbopoulos, Leonidas G. & Saunders, Anthony, 2020. "The impact of monetary policy on M&A outcomes," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
  64. repec:zbw:bofrdp:037 is not listed on IDEAS
  65. repec:bdr:ensayo:v:35:y:2017:i:82:p:31-45 is not listed on IDEAS
  66. Joshua Abel & Robert Rich & Joseph Song & Joseph Tracy, 2016. "The Measurement and Behavior of Uncertainty: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 533-550, April.
  67. Suh, Sangwon & Kim, Daehwan, 2021. "Inflation targeting and expectation anchoring: Evidence from developed and emerging market economies," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
  68. Clements, Michael P., 2018. "Are macroeconomic density forecasts informative?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 181-198.
  69. Dovern, Jonas, 2014. "A Multivariate Analysis of Forecast Disagreement: Confronting Models of Disagreement with SPF Data," Working Papers 0571, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
  70. Tosapol Apaitan & Pongsak Luangaram & Pym Manopimoke, 2020. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Does it Matter for Thailand?," PIER Discussion Papers 130, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
  71. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench & Bruce Preston, 2021. "The Term Structure of Expectations," Staff Reports 992, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  72. Huisman, Ronald & Van der Sar, Nico L. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2021. "Volatility expectations and disagreement," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 379-393.
  73. Beckmann, Joscha & Davidson, Sharada Nia & Koop, Gary & Schüssler, Rainer, 2023. "Cross-country uncertainty spillovers: Evidence from international survey data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
  74. Steffen R. Henzel & Malte Rengel, 2017. "Dimensions Of Macroeconomic Uncertainty: A Common Factor Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(2), pages 843-877, April.
  75. Wojciech Charemza & Carlos Diaz Vela & Svetlana Makarova, 2013. "Inflation fan charts, monetary policy and skew normal distribution," Discussion Papers in Economics 13/06, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
  76. Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2017. "The behavior of uncertainty and disagreement and their roles in economic prediction: a panel analysis," Staff Reports 808, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  77. Sheen, Jeffrey & Wang, Ben Zhe, 2021. "Measuring macroeconomic disagreement – A mixed frequency approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 547-566.
  78. Maurizio Bovi, 2016. "The tale of two expectations," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 50(6), pages 2677-2705, November.
  79. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2019. "Economic Uncertainty: A Geometric Indicator of Discrepancy Among Experts’ Expectations," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 143(1), pages 95-114, May.
  80. Stefano Eusepi & Richard Crump & Emanuel Moench & Philippe Andrade, 2014. "Noisy Information and Fundamental Disagreement," 2014 Meeting Papers 797, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  81. Krüger, Fabian & Pavlova, Lora, 2024. "Quantifying subjective uncertainty in survey expectations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 796-810.
  82. MORIKAWA Masayuki, 2019. "Firms' Subjective Uncertainty and Forecast Errors," Discussion papers 19055, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  83. Clements, Michael P., 2021. "Do survey joiners and leavers differ from regular participants? The US SPF GDP growth and inflation forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 634-646.
  84. Fabian Kruger, 2024. "A Kernel Score Perspective on Forecast Disagreement and the Linear Pool," Papers 2412.09430, arXiv.org.
  85. M. E. Bontempi & R. Golinelli & M. Squadrani, 2016. "A New Index of Uncertainty Based on Internet Searches: A Friend or Foe of Other Indicators?," Working Papers wp1062, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  86. Paloviita, Maritta & Virén, Matti, 2014. "Analysis of forecast errors in micro-level survey data," Research Discussion Papers 8/2014, Bank of Finland.
  87. Paloviita, Maritta & Virén, Matti, 2014. "Analysis of forecast errors in micro-level survey data," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2014, Bank of Finland.
  88. Baetje, Fabian & Friedrici, Karola, 2016. "Does cross-sectional forecast dispersion proxy for macroeconomic uncertainty? New empirical evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 38-43.
  89. Li, You & Tay, Anthony, 2021. "The role of macroeconomic and policy uncertainty in density forecast dispersion," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
  90. Tsvetomira Tsenova, 2015. "Are Long-Term Inflation Expectations Well-Anchored? Evidence From The Euro Area And The United States," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(1), pages 65-82, January.
  91. Glas, Alexander, 2020. "Five dimensions of the uncertainty–disagreement linkage," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 607-627.
  92. Pilar Poncela & Eva Senra, 2017. "Measuring uncertainty and assessing its predictive power in the euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 165-182, August.
  93. Stefania D'Amico & Athanasios Orphanides, 2014. "Inflation Uncertainty and Disagreement in Bond Risk Premia," Working Paper Series WP-2014-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  94. Christensen, Peter & Gillingham, Kenneth & Nordhaus, William, 2016. "Uncertainty in Forecasts of Long-Run Productivity Growth," Conference papers 332787, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
  95. Fuest, Angela & Schmidt, Torsten, 2020. "Inflation expectation uncertainty in a New Keynesian framework," Ruhr Economic Papers 867, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
  96. Tosapol Apaitan & Pongsak Luangaram & Pym Manopimoke, 2022. "Uncertainty in an emerging market economy: evidence from Thailand," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 933-989, March.
  97. Ma, Chao, 2020. "Momentum and Reversion to Fundamentals: Are They Captured by Subjective Expectations of House Prices?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
  98. Christian Glocker & Werner Hölzl, 2019. "Assessing the Economic Content of Direct and Indirect Business Uncertainty Measures," WIFO Working Papers 576, WIFO.
  99. Klein, Tony, 2022. "Agree to disagree? Predictions of U.S. nonfarm payroll changes between 2008 and 2020 and the impact of the COVID19 labor shock," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 264-286.
  100. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2014_008 is not listed on IDEAS
  101. Santiago Pinto & Pierre-Daniel Sarte & Robert Sharp, 2020. "The Information Content and Statistical Properties of Diffusion Indexes," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(4), pages 47-99, September.
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