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What Is the Expected Return on a Stock?

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Irma Alonso & Pedro Serrano & Antoni Vaello-Sebastià, 2021. "The impact of heterogeneous unconventional monetary policies on the expectations of market crashes," Working Papers 2127, Banco de España.
  2. Kroencke, Tim A. & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2021. "The FOMC Risk Shift," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 21-39.
  3. Ian W. R. Martin & Christian Wagner, 2019. "What Is the Expected Return on a Stock?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(4), pages 1887-1929, August.
  4. Faten Ben Bouheni & Manish Tewari, 2023. "Common risk factors and risk–return trade-off for REITs and treasuries," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(5), pages 374-395, September.
  5. Bollerslev, Tim & Todorov, Viktor, 2023. "The jump leverage risk premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(3).
  6. Mathias Krogh & Giovanni Pellegrino, "undated". "Real Activity and Uncertainty Shocks: The Long and the Short of It," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0310, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
  7. repec:ags:aaea22:335789 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Fousseni Chabi-Yo & Chukwuma Dim & Grigory Vilkov, 2023. "Generalized Bounds on the Conditional Expected Excess Return on Individual Stocks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(2), pages 922-939, February.
  9. Pratish Patel & Andrew Raquel & Savannah Chadwick, 2024. "The cash-secured put-write strategy and the variance risk premium," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(1), pages 31-50, February.
  10. Serrano, Pedro & Vaello-Sebastià, Antoni & Vich-Llompart, M. Magdalena, 2024. "The international linkages of market risk perception," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
  11. Elkamhi, Redouane & Jo, Chanik, 2023. "Asset holders’ consumption risk and tests of conditional CCAPM," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(3), pages 220-244.
  12. Geert Bekaert & Eric C. Engstrom & Nancy R. Xu, 2022. "The Time Variation in Risk Appetite and Uncertainty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(6), pages 3975-4004, June.
  13. Juan M. Londono & Mehrdad Samadi, 2023. "The Price of Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Evidence from Daily Options," International Finance Discussion Papers 1376, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  14. Byström, Hans, 2018. "Stock return expectations in the credit market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 85-92.
  15. Victor Olkhov, 2023. "Market-Based Probability of Stock Returns," Papers 2302.07935, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
  16. Đukić Aleksandar & Štaka Mirjana & Drašković Dajana, 2021. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Macroeconomic Aggregates of the European Union," Economics, Sciendo, vol. 9(2), pages 91-108, December.
  17. Attílio, Luccas Assis & Mollick, André Varella, 2024. "Assessing the baseline model of WTI oil and stock returns under financial volatility and spillover effects," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
  18. Bevilacqua, Mattia & Tunaru, Radu & Vioto, Davide, 2020. "Options-based systemic risk, financial distress, and macroeconomic downturns," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118850, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  19. Marfè, Roberto & Pénasse, Julien, 2024. "Measuring macroeconomic tail risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
  20. Lukas Kremens & Ian Martin, 2019. "The Quanto Theory of Exchange Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(3), pages 810-843, March.
  21. Kazuhiro Hiraki & George Skiadopoulos, 2018. "The Contribution of Frictions to Expected Returns," Working Papers 874, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  22. Sanford, Anthony, 2024. "Information content of option prices: Comparing analyst forecasts to option-based forecasts," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
  23. Liu, Hong & Tang, Xiaoxiao & Zhou, Guofu, 2022. "Recovering the FOMC risk premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1), pages 45-68.
  24. Can Gao & Ian W. R. Martin, 2021. "Volatility, Valuation Ratios, and Bubbles: An Empirical Measure of Market Sentiment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 3211-3254, December.
  25. Bevilacqua, Mattia & Tunaru, Radu & Vioto, Davide, 2023. "Options-based systemic risk, financial distress, and macroeconomic downturns," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119289, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  26. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie & Xu, Nancy, 2023. "Risk, Monetary Policy and Asset Prices in a Global World," CEPR Discussion Papers 18229, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  27. Pagano, Marco & Wagner, Christian & Zechner, Josef, 2023. "Disaster resilience and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2).
  28. Ian W. R. Martin & Dimitris Papadimitriou, 2022. "Sentiment and Speculation in a Market with Heterogeneous Beliefs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(8), pages 2465-2517, August.
  29. Tjeerd de Vries, 2021. "A Tale of Two Tails: A Model-free Approach to Estimating Disaster Risk Premia and Testing Asset Pricing Models," Papers 2105.08208, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
  30. Kräussl, Roman & Oladiran, Tobi & Stefanova, Denitsa, 2023. "ESG as protection against downside risk," CFS Working Paper Series 708, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  31. Collin Gilstrap & Alex Petkevich & Pavel Teterin & Kainan Wang, 2024. "Lever up! An analysis of options trading in leveraged ETFs," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(6), pages 986-1002, June.
  32. Berkman, Henk & Malloch, Hamish, 2023. "Stock valuation during the COVID-19 pandemic: An explanation using option-based discount rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
  33. Roberto Marfè, 2015. "Labor Rigidity and the Dynamics of the Value Premium," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 429, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
  34. Foley, Sean & Li, Simeng & Malloch, Hamish & Svec, Jiri, 2022. "What is the expected return on Bitcoin? Extracting the term structure of returns from options prices," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
  35. Sanjay K. Nawalkha & Xiaoyang Zhuo, 2022. "A Theory of Equivalent Expectation Measures for Contingent Claim Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(5), pages 2853-2906, October.
  36. Liu, Yan, 2021. "Index option returns and generalized entropy bounds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(3), pages 1015-1036.
  37. Della Corte, Pasquale & Jeanneret, Alexandre & Patelli, Ella D.S., 2023. "A credit-based theory of the currency risk premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(3), pages 473-496.
  38. Martin, Ian W. R. & Ross, Stephen A., 2019. "Notes on the yield curve," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(3), pages 689-702.
  39. Olkhov, Victor, 2023. "The Market-Based Statistics of “Actual” Returns of Investors," MPRA Paper 116896, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  40. Ren‐Raw Chen & Pei‐Lin Hsieh & Jeffrey Huang & Xiaowei Li, 2023. "Predictive power of the implied volatility term structure in the fixed‐income market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(3), pages 349-383, March.
  41. Iwanicz-Drozdowska Małgorzata & Rogowicz Karol & Smaga Paweł, 2023. "Market-moving events and their role in portfolio optimization of generations X, Y, and Z," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 59(4), pages 371-397, December.
  42. Olivier Dessaint & Jacques Olivier & Clemens A Otto & David Thesmar, 2021. "CAPM-Based Company (Mis)valuations [Credit lines as monitored liquidity insurance: Theory and evidence]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(1), pages 1-66.
  43. Maxim Ulrich & Simon Walther, 2020. "Option-implied information: What’s the vol surface got to do with it?," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 323-355, October.
  44. Nieto, Belén & Rubio, Gonzalo, 2022. "The risk aversion and uncertainty channels between finance and macroeconomics," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
  45. Jozef Barunik & Mattia Bevilacqua & Michael Ellington, 2023. "Common Firm-level Investor Fears: Evidence from Equity Options," Papers 2309.03968, arXiv.org.
  46. Yuan Liao & Xinjie Ma & Andreas Neuhierl & Zhentao Shi, 2023. "Economic Forecasts Using Many Noises," Papers 2312.05593, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
  47. Geert Bekaert & Eric Engstrom & Andrey Ermolov, 2023. "The Variance Risk Premium in Equilibrium Models," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(6), pages 1977-2014.
  48. Michael Hasler & Charles Martineau, 2023. "Explaining the Failure of the Unconditional CAPM with the Conditional CAPM," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(3), pages 1835-1855, March.
  49. Lof, Matthijs & Nyberg, Henri, 2024. "Discount rates and cash flows: A local projection approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
  50. Thaddeus Neururer & George Papadakis & Edward J. Riedl, 2020. "The Effect of Reporting Streaks on Ex Ante Uncertainty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(8), pages 3771-3787, August.
  51. Pohl, Walter & Schmedders, Karl & Wilms, Ole, 2021. "Asset pricing with heterogeneous agents and long-run risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(3), pages 941-964.
  52. Wang, Yunqi & Zhou, Ti, 2023. "Out-of-sample equity premium prediction: The role of option-implied constraints," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 199-226.
  53. Martin, Ian, 2018. "Options and the Gamma Knife," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 88077, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  54. Pyun, Sungjune, 2019. "Variance risk in aggregate stock returns and time-varying return predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 150-174.
  55. Kazuhiro Hiraki & George Skiadopoulos, 2023. "The Contribution of Transaction Costs to Expected Stock Returns: A Novel Measure," Working Papers 946, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  56. Back, Kerry & Crotty, Kevin & Kazempour, Seyed Mohammad, 2022. "Validity, tightness, and forecasting power of risk premium bounds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 732-760.
  57. Stefan Nagel & Zhengyang Xu, 2024. "Movements in Yields, Not the Equity Premium: Bernanke-Kuttner Redux," CESifo Working Paper Series 11305, CESifo.
  58. Khoa Hoang & Robert Faff, 2021. "Is the ex‐ante equity risk premium always positive? Evidence from a new conditional expectations model," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(1), pages 95-124, March.
  59. Keloharju, Matti & Linnainmaa, Juhani T. & Nyberg, Peter, 2021. "Long-term discount rates do not vary across firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 946-967.
  60. Ghazi, Soroush & Schneider, Mark & Dorobiala, Zachary, 2024. "Speculative and non-speculative equity premia," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
  61. Grammig, Joachim & Hanenberg, Constantin & Schlag, Christian & Sönksen, Jantje, 2020. "Diverging roads: Theory-based vs. machine learning-implied stock risk premia," University of Tübingen Working Papers in Business and Economics 130, University of Tuebingen, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, School of Business and Economics.
  62. Oesinghaus, Andreas, 2024. "Analysts’ extrapolative expectations in the cross-section," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
  63. Ian Martin, 2021. "On the Autocorrelation of the Stock Market [X-CAPM: An Extrapolative Capital Asset Pricing Model]," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 39-52.
  64. Cujean, Julien & Andrei, Daniel & Wilson, Mungo, 2018. "The Lost Capital Asset Pricing Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 12607, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  65. Magnus Dahlquist & Markus Ibert, 2024. "Equity Return Expectations and Portfolios: Evidence from Large Asset Managers," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 37(6), pages 1887-1928.
  66. Baumgärtner, Fabienne, 2020. "Elemente und Vorgehensweisen von Influencer Relations," Working Papers for Marketing & Management 46, Offenburg University, Department of Media and Information.
  67. Rubio, Gonzalo & Serrano, Pedro & Vaello-Sebastià, Antoni, 2023. "The international integration of the term structure of expected market risk premia," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PD).
  68. Neilson, Jed J., 2022. "Investor information gathering and the resolution of uncertainty," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1).
  69. Wu, Xu & Wang, Pei-Yu & Wang, Kun, 2023. "The effect of stabilization fund to rescue stock market based on expected return-capita circulation equation," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 87(PB).
  70. Qiao, Kenan & Ji, Zhehan & Xie, Haibin, 2023. "Unrealized return dispersion and the equity risk premium," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
  71. Mathias S. Kruttli & Brigitte Roth Tran & Sumudu W. Watugala, 2019. "Pricing Poseidon: Extreme Weather Uncertainty and Firm Return Dynamics," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-054, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  72. Ye Li & Chen Wang, 2023. "Valuation Duration of the Stock Market," Papers 2310.07110, arXiv.org.
  73. Anarkulova, Aizhan & Cederburg, Scott & O’Doherty, Michael S., 2022. "Stocks for the long run? Evidence from a broad sample of developed markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 409-433.
  74. Pezzo, Luca & Zhu, Yinchu & Hassan, M. Kabir & Tian, Jiayuan, 2024. "Testing the boundaries of applicability of standard Stochastic Discount Factor models," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
  75. Matti Keloharju & Juhani T. Linnainmaa & Peter Nyberg, 2019. "Long-Term Discount Rates Do Not Vary Across Firms," NBER Working Papers 25579, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  76. Pascal François & Rémi Galarneau‐Vincent & Geneviève Gauthier & Frédéric Godin, 2022. "Venturing into uncharted territory: An extensible implied volatility surface model," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(10), pages 1912-1940, October.
  77. Oleg Kucher & Alexander Kurov & Marketa Halova Wolfe, 2023. "A shot in the arm: The effect of COVID‐19 vaccine news on financial and commodity markets," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 575-596, August.
  78. Bevilacqua, Mattia & Tunaru, Radu & Vioto, Davide, 2023. "Options-based systemic risk, financial distress, and macroeconomic downturns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
  79. Kroencke, Tim A., 2022. "Recessions and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 61-77.
  80. Hardeep Singh Mundi, 2023. "Risk neutral variances to compute expected returns using data from S&P BSE 100 firms—a replication study," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 73(1), pages 215-230, February.
  81. Berthold, Brendan, 2023. "The macroeconomic effects of uncertainty and risk aversion shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
  82. Lars A. Lochstoer & Tyler Muir, 2022. "Volatility Expectations and Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 1055-1096, April.
  83. Chabi-Yo, Fousseni & Loudis, Johnathan, 2020. "The conditional expected market return," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(3), pages 752-786.
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