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Stock valuation during the COVID-19 pandemic: An explanation using option-based discount rates

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  • Berkman, Henk
  • Malloch, Hamish

Abstract

Changes in short-term expected market returns (discount rates) were a significant driver behind the unprecedented fluctuations in equity markets during the first 4 months of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using option-based estimates of the expected market risk premium for 13 international markets, we find that approximately 40% of the change in market values during the COVID-19 pandemic can be attributed to changes in short-term discount rates. We also document sharply downward sloping term structures of equity risk premia at the start of the pandemic, consistent with Hasler and Marfè (2016). Finally, we document a significant increase in the correlation between index returns and changes in the short-term discount rate during the pandemic compared to the period before the pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Berkman, Henk & Malloch, Hamish, 2023. "Stock valuation during the COVID-19 pandemic: An explanation using option-based discount rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:147:y:2023:i:c:s037842662100337x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106386
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Angelo Aspris & Ester Félez‐Viñas & Sean Foley & Hamish Malloch & Jiri Svec, 2024. "The market risk premium in Australia: Forward‐looking evidence from the options market," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 64(4), pages 3951-3972, December.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Option implied market risk premium; Stock return decomposition; Disaster asset pricing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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