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Forecasting Volatility and Co-volatility of Crude Oil and Gold Futures: Effects of Leverage, Jumps, Spillovers, and Geopolitical Risks

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  1. Wang, Xiao-Qing & Wu, Tong & Zhong, Huaming & Su, Chi-Wei, 2023. "Bubble behaviors in nickel price: What roles do geopolitical risk and speculation play?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
  2. Assaf, Ata & Charif, Husni & Mokni, Khaled, 2021. "Dynamic connectedness between uncertainty and energy markets: Do investor sentiments matter?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
  3. Matteo Bonato & Konstantinos Gkillas & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2020. "Investor Happiness and Predictability of the Realized Volatility of Oil Price," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-11, May.
  4. Bouri, Elie & Gkillas, Konstantinos & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2021. "Forecasting power of infectious diseases-related uncertainty for gold realized variance," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
  5. Zheng, Jinlin & Wen, Baoyu & Jiang, Yaohui & Wang, Xiaohan & Shen, Yue, 2023. "Risk spillovers across geopolitical risk and global financial markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PA).
  6. Salisu, Afees A. & Gupta, Rangan & Karmakar, Sayar & Das, Sonali, 2022. "Forecasting output growth of advanced economies over eight centuries: The role of gold market volatility as a proxy of global uncertainty," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
  7. Mehmet Balcilar & Elie Bouri & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2021. "El Niño, La Niña, and the Forecastability of the Realized Variance of Heating Oil Price Movements," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-23, July.
  8. Li, Yingli & Huang, Jianbai & Chen, Jinyu, 2021. "Dynamic spillovers of geopolitical risks and gold prices: New evidence from 18 emerging economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
  9. Salisu, Afees A. & Pierdzioch, Christian & Gupta, Rangan, 2022. "Oil tail risks and the forecastability of the realized variance of oil-price: Evidence from over 150 years of data," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
  10. Gupta, Rangan & Nielsen, Joshua & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2024. "Stock market bubbles and the realized volatility of oil price returns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
  11. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Khan, Asad ul Islam & Mubarak, Muhammad Shujaat, 2023. "Roling-window bounds testing approach to analyze the relationship between oil prices and metal prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 388-395.
  12. Long, Shaobo & Guo, Jiaqi, 2022. "Infectious disease equity market volatility, geopolitical risk, speculation, and commodity returns: Comparative analysis of five epidemic outbreaks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
  13. Ngo, Vu Minh & Nguyen, Phuc Van & Hoang, Yen Hai, 2024. "The impacts of geopolitical risks on gold, oil and financial reserve management," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
  14. Wang, Zhe & Teng, Yin-Pei & Wu, Shuzhao & Liu, Yuxiang & Liu, Xianchang, 2023. "Geopolitical risk, financial system and natural resources extraction: Evidence from China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
  15. Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2021. "Climate Risks and the Realized Volatility Oil and Gas Prices: Results of an Out-of-Sample Forecasting Experiment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-18, December.
  16. Rangan Gupta & Sayar Karmakar & Christian Pierdzioch, 2024. "Safe Havens, Machine Learning, and the Sources of Geopolitical Risk: A Forecasting Analysis Using Over a Century of Data," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(1), pages 487-513, July.
  17. Thanoj K. Muddana & Komal S.R. Bhimireddy & Anandamayee Majumdar & Rangan Gupta, 2024. "Forecasting Gold Returns Volatility Over 1258-2023: The Role of Moments," Working Papers 202421, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  18. Riza Demirer & Konstantinos Gkillas & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2022. "Risk aversion and the predictability of crude oil market volatility: A forecasting experiment with random forests," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 73(8), pages 1755-1767, August.
  19. Yang, Cai & Niu, Zibo & Gao, Wang, 2022. "The time-varying effects of trade policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks shocks on the commodity market prices: Evidence from the TVP-VAR-SV approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
  20. O-Chia Chuang & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch & Buliao Shu, 2024. "Financial Uncertainty and Gold Market Volatility: Evidence from a GARCH-MIDAS Approach with Variable Selection," Working Papers 202441, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  21. Nikitopoulos, Christina Sklibosios & Thomas, Alice Carole & Wang, Jianxin, 2023. "The economic impact of daily volatility persistence on energy markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
  22. Luo, Keyu & Guo, Qiang & Li, Xiafei, 2022. "Can the return connectedness indices from grey energy to natural gas help to forecast the natural gas returns?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
  23. Qin, Yun & Hong, Kairong & Chen, Jinyu & Zhang, Zitao, 2020. "Asymmetric effects of geopolitical risks on energy returns and volatility under different market conditions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
  24. Bonato, Matteo & Gkillas, Konstantinos & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2021. "A note on investor happiness and the predictability of realized volatility of gold," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
  25. Sheng, Xin & Kim, Won Joong & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2023. "The impacts of oil price volatility on financial stress: Is the COVID-19 period different?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 520-532.
  26. Li, Xiaoqian & Ma, Xiaoqi, 2023. "Jumps and gold futures volatility prediction," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
  27. Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Jacobus Nel & Christian Pierdzioch, 2020. "Effect of Rare Disaster Risks on Crude Oil: Evidence from El Nino from Over 140 Years of Data," Working Papers 2020104, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  28. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David & Perez de Gracia, Fernando, 2022. "Tail risk connectedness in the refined petroleum market: A first look at the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
  29. Mengxi He & Yaojie Zhang & Yudong Wang & Danyan Wen, 2024. "Modelling and forecasting crude oil price volatility with climate policy uncertainty," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-10, December.
  30. Ding, Qian & Huang, Jianbai & Zhang, Hongwei, 2021. "The time-varying effects of financial and geopolitical uncertainties on commodity market dynamics: A TVP-SVAR-SV analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
  31. Du, Pei & Guo, Ju’e & Sun, Shaolong & Wang, Shouyang & Wu, Jing, 2021. "Multi-step metal prices forecasting based on a data preprocessing method and an optimized extreme learning machine by marine predators algorithm," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
  32. Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2020. "The predictive power of oil price shocks on realized volatility of oil: A note," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
  33. Abid, Ilyes & Dhaoui, Abderrazak & Kaabia, Olfa & Tarchella, Salma, 2023. "Geopolitical risk on energy, agriculture, livestock, precious and industrial metals: New insights from a Markov Switching model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
  34. Cheng, Sheng & Deng, MingJie & Liang, Ruibin & Cao, Yan, 2023. "Asymmetric volatility spillover among global oil, gold, and Chinese sectors in the presence of major emergencies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
  35. Luo, Jiawen & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2022. "Forecasting oil and gold volatilities with sentiment indicators under structural breaks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
  36. Yaojie Zhang & Mengxi He & Danyan Wen & Yudong Wang, 2022. "Forecasting Bitcoin volatility: A new insight from the threshold regression model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(3), pages 633-652, April.
  37. Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2022. "Climate risks and forecastability of the realized volatility of gold and other metal prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
  38. Yan Ding & Yue Liu & Pierre Failler, 2022. "The Impact of Uncertainties on Crude Oil Prices: Based on a Quantile-on-Quantile Method," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-35, May.
  39. Zixin Liu & Shuguang Zhang, 2024. "RETRACTED ARTICLE: How does environmental performance ensured energy transition? Impact of ecological change," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 1-27, April.
  40. Văn, Lê & Bảo, Nguyễn Khắc Quốc, 2022. "The relationship between global stock and precious metals under Covid-19 and happiness perspectives," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
  41. Zhang, Li & Wang, Lu & Peng, Lijuan & Luo, Keyu, 2023. "Measuring the response of clean energy stock price volatility to extreme shocks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 1289-1300.
  42. Song, Yuping & Huang, Jiefei & Zhang, Qichao & Xu, Yang, 2024. "Heterogeneity effect of positive and negative jumps on the realized volatility: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
  43. Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2023. "Do U.S. economic conditions at the state level predict the realized volatility of oil-price returns? A quantile machine-learning approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-22, December.
  44. Zhao, Jing, 2023. "Time-varying impact of geopolitical risk on natural resources prices: Evidence from the hybrid TVP-VAR model with large system," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
  45. Xiafei Li & Dongxin Li & Xuhui Zhang & Guiwu Wei & Lan Bai & Yu Wei, 2021. "Forecasting regular and extreme gold price volatility: The roles of asymmetry, extreme event, and jump," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(8), pages 1501-1523, December.
  46. Asai Manabu & So Mike K. P., 2023. "Realized BEKK-CAW Models," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 49-77, January.
  47. Le, Thanh Ha, 2023. "Quantile time-frequency connectedness between cryptocurrency volatility and renewable energy volatility during the COVID-19 pandemic and Ukraine-Russia conflicts," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 613-625.
  48. Nonejad, Nima, 2022. "Forecasting crude oil price volatility out-of-sample using news-based geopolitical risk index: What forms of nonlinearity help improve forecast accuracy the most?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
  49. Syed Kumail Abbas Rizvi & Bushra Naqvi & Nawazish Mirza, 2022. "Is green investment different from grey? Return and volatility spillovers between green and grey energy ETFs," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(1), pages 495-524, June.
  50. Gkillas, Konstantinos & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2021. "OPEC news and jumps in the oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
  51. Niu, Zibo & Ma, Feng & Zhang, Hongwei, 2022. "The role of uncertainty measures in volatility forecasting of the crude oil futures market before and during the COVID-19 pandemic," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
  52. Yanqiong Liu & Zhenghui Li & Yanyan Yao & Hao Dong, 2021. "Asymmetry of Risk Evolution in Crude Oil Market: From the Perspective of Dual Attributes of Oil," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-22, July.
  53. Sun, Guanglin & Li, Jianfeng & Shang, Zezhong, 2022. "Return and volatility linkages between international energy markets and Chinese commodity market," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
  54. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Nel, Jacobus, 2022. "Rare disaster risks and gold over 700 years: Evidence from nonparametric quantile regressions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
  55. Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2021. "Forecasting the Volatility of Crude Oil: The Role of Uncertainty and Spillovers," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-15, July.
  56. Zhang, Jilu & Guxue, Kaicheng, 2024. "Fostering sustainability: Exploring natural resources, mineral resources, and their impact on carbon reduction, economic growth," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
  57. Salisu, Afees A. & Pierdzioch, Christian & Gupta, Rangan, 2021. "Geopolitical risk and forecastability of tail risk in the oil market: Evidence from over a century of monthly data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
  58. Foglia, Matteo & Palomba, Giulio & Tedeschi, Marco, 2023. "Disentangling the geopolitical risk and its effects on commodities. Evidence from a panel of G8 countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
  59. Usha Rekha Chinthapalli, 2021. "A Comparative Analysis on Probability of Volatility Clusters on Cryptocurrencies, and FOREX Currencies," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-23, July.
  60. Gong, Xu & Xu, Jun, 2022. "Geopolitical risk and dynamic connectedness between commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
  61. Ahdi Noomen Ajmi & Roula Inglesi-Lotz, 2021. "Revisiting the Kuznets Curve Hypothesis for Tunisia: Carbon Dioxide vs. Ecological Footprint," Working Papers 202171, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  62. Tamilselvan, M. & Halder, Abhishek & Kannadhasan, M., 2024. "Exploring the ingredients, mixtures, and inclinations of geopolitical risk," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 187-206.
  63. Mo, Bin & Nie, He & Zhao, Rongjie, 2024. "Dynamic nonlinear effects of geopolitical risks on commodities: Fresh evidence from quantile methods," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
  64. Song, Yixuan & He, Mengxi & Wang, Yudong & Zhang, Yaojie, 2022. "Forecasting crude oil market volatility: A newspaper-based predictor regarding petroleum market volatility," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
  65. Çepni, Oğuzhan & Gupta, Rangan & Pienaar, Daniel & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2022. "Forecasting the realized variance of oil-price returns using machine learning: Is there a role for U.S. state-level uncertainty?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
  66. Li, Yingli & Huang, Jianbai & Gao, Wang & Zhang, Hongwei, 2021. "Analyzing the time-frequency connectedness among oil, gold prices and BRICS geopolitical risks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
  67. Choi, Sun-Yong, 2022. "Evidence from a multiple and partial wavelet analysis on the impact of geopolitical concerns on stock markets in North-East Asian countries," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
  68. Elie Bouri & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2020. "Infectious Diseases, Market Uncertainty and Oil Market Volatility," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-8, August.
  69. Salisu, Afees A. & Gupta, Rangan & Bouri, Elie & Ji, Qiang, 2020. "The role of global economic conditions in forecasting gold market volatility: Evidence from a GARCH-MIDAS approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
  70. Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang & Pierdzioch, Christian & Plakandaras, Vasilios, 2023. "Forecasting the conditional distribution of realized volatility of oil price returns: The role of skewness over 1859 to 2023," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
  71. Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Nel, Jacobus & Shiba, Sisa, 2022. "Contagious diseases and gold: Over 700 years of evidence from quantile regressions," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
  72. Zhang, Jialin & Shi, Shaodong, 2023. "Extraction of natural resources and geopolitical risk revisited: A novel perspective of research and development with financial development," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
  73. Wang, Lu & Ma, Feng & Hao, Jianyang & Gao, Xinxin, 2021. "Forecasting crude oil volatility with geopolitical risk: Do time-varying switching probabilities play a role?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
  74. Danyan Wen & Mengxi He & Yaojie Zhang & Yudong Wang, 2022. "Forecasting realized volatility of Chinese stock market: A simple but efficient truncated approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(2), pages 230-251, March.
  75. Borg, Elin & Kits, Ilya & Junttila, Juha & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2022. "Dependence between renewable energy related critical metal futures and producer equity markets across varying market conditions," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 879-892.
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