IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jrpoli/v79y2022ics0301420722004962.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Rare disaster risks and gold over 700 years: Evidence from nonparametric quantile regressions

Author

Listed:
  • Balcilar, Mehmet
  • Gupta, Rangan
  • Nel, Jacobus

Abstract

Using annual data on real gold returns and measures of rare disaster risks over the period of 1280–2016, we show the existence of nonlinearity and regime changes in the relationship between the two variables of concern, over and above the existence of non-normality in the data. In light of these issues, we rely on a nonparametric quantile regression model to show that real gold returns can hedge against such risks, but only when the market is in its bullish-state, with it being negatively impacted in its bearish-phase. Understandably, our results have important implications for investors seeking refuge in the safe haven of gold during rare disaster events. In addition, our findings, would require theoreticians to develop new asset pricing models, which would incorporate the state-specific impact of rare disaster risks on gold.

Suggested Citation

  • Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Nel, Jacobus, 2022. "Rare disaster risks and gold over 700 years: Evidence from nonparametric quantile regressions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:79:y:2022:i:c:s0301420722004962
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.103053
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301420722004962
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.103053?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dirk G. Baur & Brian M. Lucey, 2010. "Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 217-229, May.
    2. Koenker, Roger & Xiao, Zhijie, 2006. "Quantile Autoregression," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 980-990, September.
    3. Henk Berkman & Ben Jacobsen & John B. Lee, 2017. "Rare disaster risk and the expected equity risk premium," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57(2), pages 351-372, June.
    4. Bonato, Matteo & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2018. "Gold futures returns and realized moments: A forecasting experiment using a quantile-boosting approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 196-212.
    5. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Measuring the response of gold prices to uncertainty: An analysis beyond the mean," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 105-116.
    6. Balcilar, Mehmet & Bonato, Matteo & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan, 2017. "The effect of investor sentiment on gold market return dynamics: Evidence from a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 77-84.
    7. Baur, Dirk G. & McDermott, Thomas K., 2010. "Is gold a safe haven? International evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1886-1898, August.
    8. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2016. "Does uncertainty move the gold price? New evidence from a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 74-80.
    9. Zhi Da & Joseph Engelberg & Pengjie Gao, 2015. "Editor's Choice The Sum of All FEARS Investor Sentiment and Asset Prices," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(1), pages 1-32.
    10. Manabu Asai & Rangan Gupta & Michael McAleer, 2019. "The Impact of Jumps and Leverage in Forecasting the Co-Volatility of Oil and Gold Futures," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-17, September.
    11. Jessica A. Wachter, 2013. "Can Time-Varying Risk of Rare Disasters Explain Aggregate Stock Market Volatility?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 987-1035, June.
    12. Emmanuel Farhi & Xavier Gabaix, 2016. "Editor's Choice Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(1), pages 1-52.
    13. Koenker,Roger, 2005. "Quantile Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521608275.
    14. Xingdong Feng & Xuming He & Jianhua Hu, 2011. "Wild bootstrap for quantile regression," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 98(4), pages 995-999.
    15. Rangan Gupta & Tahir Suleman & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "Exchange rate returns and volatility: the role of time-varying rare disaster risks," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2), pages 190-203, January.
    16. Coric, Bruno, 2021. "Economic Disasters: A New Data Set," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    17. Asai, Manabu & Gupta, Rangan & McAleer, Michael, 2020. "Forecasting volatility and co-volatility of crude oil and gold futures: Effects of leverage, jumps, spillovers, and geopolitical risks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 933-948.
    18. Boubaker, Heni & Cunado, Juncal & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Gupta, Rangan, 2020. "Global crises and gold as a safe haven: Evidence from over seven and a half centuries of data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 540(C).
    19. Robert J. Barro, 2009. "Rare Disasters, Asset Prices, and Welfare Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(1), pages 243-264, March.
    20. Xavier Gabaix, 2012. "Variable Rare Disasters: An Exactly Solved Framework for Ten Puzzles in Macro-Finance," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(2), pages 645-700.
    21. Berkman, Henk & Jacobsen, Ben & Lee, John B., 2011. "Time-varying rare disaster risk and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 313-332, August.
    22. Robert J. Barro, 2006. "Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(3), pages 823-866.
    23. Robert J. Barro & José F. Ursúa, 2012. "Rare Macroeconomic Disasters," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 83-109, July.
    24. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
    25. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Mark E. Wohar, 2018. "Causal effects of the United States and Japan on Pacific-Rim stock markets: nonparametric quantile causality approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(53), pages 5712-5727, November.
    26. Raza, Syed Ali & Shah, Nida & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2018. "Does economic policy uncertainty influence gold prices? Evidence from a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 61-68.
    27. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    28. Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Nel, Jacobus & Shiba, Sisa, 2022. "Contagious diseases and gold: Over 700 years of evidence from quantile regressions," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    29. Sim, Nicholas & Zhou, Hongtao, 2015. "Oil prices, US stock return, and the dependence between their quantiles," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 1-8.
    30. Robert J. Barro & Jose F. Ursua, 2008. "Macroeconomic Crises since 1870," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(1 (Spring), pages 255-350.
    31. Ji, Qiang & Zhang, Dayong & Zhao, Yuqian, 2020. "Searching for safe-haven assets during the COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    32. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    33. Lahiani, Amine & Mefteh-Wali, Salma & Vasbieva, Dinara G., 2021. "The safe-haven property of precious metal commodities in the COVID-19 era," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    34. Koenker,Roger, 2005. "Quantile Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521845731.
    35. Rangan Gupta & Tahir Suleman & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "The role of time‐varying rare disaster risks in predicting bond returns and volatility," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 327-340, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fava, Santino Del & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian & Rognone, Lavinia, 2024. "Forecasting international financial stress: The role of climate risks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    2. Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Christian Pierdzioch & Onur Polat, 2024. "Climate Risks and Real Gold Returns over 750 Years," Working Papers 202436, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Thanoj K. Muddana & Komal S.R. Bhimireddy & Anandamayee Majumdar & Rangan Gupta, 2024. "Forecasting Gold Returns Volatility Over 1258-2023: The Role of Moments," Working Papers 202421, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    4. Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang & Pierdzioch, Christian & Plakandaras, Vasilios, 2023. "Forecasting the conditional distribution of realized volatility of oil price returns: The role of skewness over 1859 to 2023," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rangan Gupta & Tahir Suleman & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "The role of time‐varying rare disaster risks in predicting bond returns and volatility," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 327-340, July.
    2. Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan & Suleman, Tahir & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Time-varying rare disaster risks, oil returns and volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 239-248.
    3. Chi-Wei Su & Lidong Pang & Muhammad Umar & Oana-Ramona Lobonţ, 2022. "Will Gold Always Shine amid World Uncertainty?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(12), pages 3425-3438, September.
    4. Marfè, Roberto & Pénasse, Julien, 2024. "Measuring macroeconomic tail risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    5. Bonato, Matteo & Gupta, Rangan & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Wang, Shixuan, 2020. "Moments-based spillovers across gold and oil markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    6. Bonato, Matteo & Gkillas, Konstantinos & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2021. "A note on investor happiness and the predictability of realized volatility of gold," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    7. Rangan Gupta & Sayar Karmakar & Christian Pierdzioch, 2024. "Safe Havens, Machine Learning, and the Sources of Geopolitical Risk: A Forecasting Analysis Using Over a Century of Data," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(1), pages 487-513, July.
    8. Su, Chi-Wei & Pang, Lidong & Umar, Muhammad & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona & Moldovan, Nicoleta-Claudia, 2022. "Does gold's hedging uncertainty aura fade away?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    9. Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Jacobus Nel & Christian Pierdzioch, 2020. "Effect of Rare Disaster Risks on Crude Oil: Evidence from El Nino from Over 140 Years of Data," Working Papers 2020104, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    10. Arshian Sharif & Eyup Dogan & Ameenullah Aman & Hafizah Hammad Ahmad Khan & Isma Zaighum, 2020. "Rare disaster and renewable energy in the USA: new insights from wavelet coherence and rolling-window analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(3), pages 2731-2755, September.
    11. Robert Barro & Tao Jin, 2021. "Rare Events and Long-Run Risks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 39, pages 1-25, January.
    12. Salisu, Afees A. & Gupta, Rangan & Nel, Jacobus & Bouri, Elie, 2022. "The (Asymmetric) effect of El Niño and La Niña on gold and silver prices in a GVAR model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    13. Thanoj K. Muddana & Komal S.R. Bhimireddy & Anandamayee Majumdar & Rangan Gupta, 2024. "Forecasting Gold Returns Volatility Over 1258-2023: The Role of Moments," Working Papers 202421, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    14. Robert Barro & Tao Jin, 2021. "Rare Events and Long-Run Risks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 39, pages 1-25, January.
    15. Bruno Ćorić & Vladimir Šimić, 2021. "Economic disasters and aggregate investment," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(6), pages 3087-3124, December.
    16. Bo Liu & Yingjie Niu & Jinqiang Yang & Zhentao Zou, 2020. "Time‐varying risk of rare disasters, investment, and asset pricing," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 503-524, August.
    17. Abdulsalam Abidemi Sikiru & Afees A. Salisu, 2022. "Assessing the hedging potential of gold and other precious metals against uncertainty due to epidemics and pandemics," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 2199-2214, August.
    18. Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Nel, Jacobus & Shiba, Sisa, 2022. "Contagious diseases and gold: Over 700 years of evidence from quantile regressions," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    19. Bouri, Elie & Gkillas, Konstantinos & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2021. "Forecasting power of infectious diseases-related uncertainty for gold realized variance," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    20. Bonato, Matteo & Cepni, Oguzhan & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2023. "Climate risks and state-level stock market realized volatility," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real gold returns; Rare disaster risks; Quantile regressions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:79:y:2022:i:c:s0301420722004962. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30467 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.