IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v68y2024ics1544612324010298.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic margin optimization

Author

Listed:
  • Berlinger, Edina
  • Bihary, Zsolt
  • Dömötör, Barbara

Abstract

In response to the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2009, by now, most of the financial transactions must be cleared through central counterparties operating a dynamic margin setting mechanism. High margin calls can reduce counterparty risk in a turbulent market, but at the same time, increase liquidity risk and escalate systemic risk. In this paper, we construct a theoretical model to address this challenge, deriving an optimal margin setting policy framed as a stochastic control problem. Our analysis reveals that an adaptive, countercyclical approach is superior to a purely risk-sensitive strategy, primarily by minimizing the expected loss for the clearing institution.

Suggested Citation

  • Berlinger, Edina & Bihary, Zsolt & Dömötör, Barbara, 2024. "Dynamic margin optimization," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:68:y:2024:i:c:s1544612324010298
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2024.105999
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612324010298
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2024.105999?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
    2. Brennan, Michael J., 1986. "A theory of price limits in futures markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 213-233, June.
    3. Ghamami, Samim & Paddrik, Mark & Zhang, Simpson, 2023. "Central Counterparty Default Waterfalls and Systemic Loss," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 58(8), pages 3577-3612, December.
    4. Péter Csóka & P. Jean-Jacques Herings, 2018. "Decentralized Clearing in Financial Networks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(10), pages 4681-4699, October.
    5. George W. Fenn & Paul Kupiec, 1993. "Prudential margin policy in a futures‐style settlement system," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 389-408, June.
    6. Caio Mário Mesquita & Cristiano Arbex Valle & Adriano César Machado Pereira, 2024. "Scenario Generation for Financial Data with a Machine Learning Approach Based on Realized Volatility and Copulas," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 63(5), pages 1879-1919, May.
    7. Brumm, Johannes & Grill, Michael & Kubler, Felix & Schmedders, Karl, 2015. "Margin regulation and volatility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 54-68.
    8. Berlinger, Edina & Dömötör, Barbara & Illés, Ferenc, 2019. "Anti-cyclical versus risk-sensitive margin strategies in central clearing," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 117-131.
    9. Auer, Raphael & Matyunina, Alexandra & Ongena, Steven, 2022. "The countercyclical capital buffer and the composition of bank lending," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    10. Bellia, Mario & Girardi, Giulio & Panzica, Roberto & Pelizzon, Loriana & Peltonen, Tuomas, 2024. "The demand for central clearing: To clear or not to clear, that is the question!," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    11. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    12. Asai, Manabu & Gupta, Rangan & McAleer, Michael, 2020. "Forecasting volatility and co-volatility of crude oil and gold futures: Effects of leverage, jumps, spillovers, and geopolitical risks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 933-948.
    13. Murphy, David & Vasios, Michalis & Vause, Nicholas, 2016. "A comparative analysis of tools to limit the procyclicality of initial margin requirements," Bank of England working papers 597, Bank of England.
    14. Shanker, Latha & Balakrishnan, Narayanaswamy, 2005. "Optimal clearing margin, capital and price limits for futures clearinghouses," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1611-1630, July.
    15. Ma, Feng & Guo, Yangli & Chevallier, Julien & Huang, Dengshi, 2022. "Macroeconomic attention, economic policy uncertainty, and stock volatility predictability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    16. Yang-Ho Park & Nicole Abruzzo, 2016. "An Empirical Analysis of Futures Margin Changes: Determinants and Policy Implications," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 65-100, February.
    17. Stephen Figlewski, 1984. "Margins and market integrity: Margin setting for stock index futures and options," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(3), pages 385-416, September.
    18. Leitner, Georg & Dvořák, Michal & Magi, Alessandro & Zsámboki, Balázs, 2023. "How usable are capital buffers?," Occasional Paper Series 329, European Central Bank.
    19. Friesz, Melinda & Váradi, Kata, 2023. "Your skin or mine: Ensuring the viability of a central counterparty," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    20. Brailsford, Timothy J. & Faff, Robert W., 1996. "An evaluation of volatility forecasting techniques," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 419-438, April.
    21. Paul Glasserman & Qi Wu, 2018. "Persistence and Procyclicality in Margin Requirements," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(12), pages 5705-5724, December.
    22. Feng Ma & Yangli Guo & Julien Chevallier & Dengshi Huang, 2022. "Macroeconomic attention, economic policy uncertainty, and stock volatility predictability," Post-Print halshs-04250304, HAL.
    23. François M. Longin, 1999. "Optimal margin level in futures markets: Extreme price movements," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(2), pages 127-152, April.
    24. Ron Berndsen, 2021. "Fundamental questions on central counterparties: A review of the literature," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(12), pages 2009-2022, December.
    25. Hui Hong & Chien-Chiang Lee, 2022. "Optimal Margin Levels for Margin Buying in China: An Extreme Value Method," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(9), pages 2553-2566, July.
    26. Crouhy, Michel & Galai, Dan & Mark, Robert, 2000. "A comparative analysis of current credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 59-117, January.
    27. Berlinger, Edina & Dömötör, Barbara & Illés, Ferenc, 2019. "Optimal margin requirement," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alexander, Carol & Kaeck, Andreas & Sumawong, Anannit, 2019. "A parsimonious parametric model for generating margin requirements for futures," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 273(1), pages 31-43.
    2. Berlinger, Edina & Dömötör, Barbara & Illés, Ferenc, 2019. "Optimal margin requirement," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    3. Berlinger, Edina & Dömötör, Barbara & Illés, Ferenc, 2019. "Anti-cyclical versus risk-sensitive margin strategies in central clearing," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 117-131.
    4. Dávid Zoltán Szabó & Kata Váradi, 2022. "Margin requirements based on a stochastic correlation model," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(10), pages 1797-1820, October.
    5. Friesz, Melinda & Váradi, Kata, 2023. "Your skin or mine: Ensuring the viability of a central counterparty," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    6. Corradin, Stefano & Heider, Florian & Hoerova, Marie, 2017. "On collateral: implications for financial stability and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2107, European Central Bank.
    7. Chen, Yan & Yu, Wenqiang, 2020. "Setting the margins of Hang Seng Index Futures on different positions using an APARCH-GPD Model based on extreme value theory," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 544(C).
    8. Robert A. Jones & Christophe Pérignon, 2013. "Derivatives Clearing, Default Risk, and Insurance," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 80(2), pages 373-400, June.
    9. repec:ecb:ecbdps:20174 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Chen-Yu Chen & Jian-Hsin Chou & Hung-Gay Fung & Yiuman Tse, 2017. "Setting the futures margin with price limits: the case for single-stock futures," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 219-237, January.
    11. Wang, Yuejing & Ye, Wuyi & Jiang, Ying & Liu, Xiaoquan, 2024. "Volatility prediction for the energy sector with economic determinants: Evidence from a hybrid model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    12. Capponi, Agostino & Cheng, Wan-Schwin Allen & Giglio, Stefano & Haynes, Richard, 2022. "The collateral rule: Evidence from the credit default swap market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 58-86.
    13. Váradi, Kata & Ladoniczki, Sára Kata, 2018. "Elszámolóházak alapbiztosítéki követelményeinek számítási módszertana [Numerical methodology in the basic insurance requirements of clearing houses]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 780-809.
    14. González-Urteaga, Ana & Rubio, Gonzalo, 2022. "Guarantee requirements by European central counterparties and international volatility spillovers," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    15. Daskalaki, Charoula & Skiadopoulos, George, 2016. "The effects of margin changes on commodity futures markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 129-152.
    16. David Bates & Roger Craine, 1998. "Valuing the Futures Market Clearinghouse's Default Exposure During the 1987 Crash," NBER Working Papers 6505, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Jin, YangKyu & Suh, Sangwon, 2024. "Procyclical variation margins in central clearing," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    18. Ron Berndsen, 2021. "Fundamental questions on central counterparties: A review of the literature," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(12), pages 2009-2022, December.
    19. Berndsen, Ron, 2020. "Five Fundamental Questions on Central Counterparties," Other publications TiSEM 1f3bd844-92ab-4104-8f57-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    20. Kern, Markus & Rudolph, Bernd, 2001. "Comparative analysis of alternative credit risk models: An application on German middle market loan portfolios," CFS Working Paper Series 2001/03, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    21. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Schuermann, Til & Treutler, Bjorn-Jakob & Weiner, Scott M., 2006. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1211-1261, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central counterparty; Clearing; Countercyclical margin; Dynamic modelling; Stochastic control;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:68:y:2024:i:c:s1544612324010298. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.