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Contagious diseases and gold: Over 700 years of evidence from quantile regressions

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  • Bouri, Elie
  • Gupta, Rangan
  • Nel, Jacobus
  • Shiba, Sisa

Abstract

We investigate the effect of the probability of fatality due to contagious diseases on real gold returns over the period 1258–2020 using a predictive quantile regression model, which is justified by the features of non-normality, nonlinearity, and structural breaks in the dataset involving real gold returns and the probability of fatality. We show that real gold returns hedge the probability of fatality due to contagious diseases primarily when the gold market is bullish. However, the hedging ability is insignificant when the gold market is bearish. These results are important for investors seeking refuge in gold during rare disaster events.

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  • Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Nel, Jacobus & Shiba, Sisa, 2022. "Contagious diseases and gold: Over 700 years of evidence from quantile regressions," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:50:y:2022:i:c:s1544612322004573
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2022.103266
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    Cited by:

    1. Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Christian Pierdzioch & Onur Polat, 2024. "Climate Risks and Real Gold Returns over 750 Years," Working Papers 202436, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    2. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Nel, Jacobus, 2022. "Rare disaster risks and gold over 700 years: Evidence from nonparametric quantile regressions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    3. Thanoj K. Muddana & Komal S.R. Bhimireddy & Anandamayee Majumdar & Rangan Gupta, 2024. "Forecasting Gold Returns Volatility Over 1258-2023: The Role of Moments," Working Papers 202421, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    4. Karmakar, Sayar & Gupta, Rangan & Cepni, Oguzhan & Rognone, Lavinia, 2023. "Climate risks and predictability of the trading volume of gold: Evidence from an INGARCH model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    5. Feng, Qianbin & Hu, Xiao & Deng, Xinyi & Lu, Jun, 2023. "Anti-corruption campaign and capacity utilization of state-owned enterprises: Evidence from China’s central committee inspection," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 319-346.
    6. Bruno Coric & Rangan Gupta, 2022. "Economic Disasters and Inequality," Working Papers 202255, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    7. Bruno Ćorić & Rangan Gupta, 2023. "Economic disasters and inequality: a note," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 3527-3543, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real gold returns; contagious diseases; COVID-19 outbreak; probability of fatality; predictive quantile regression model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market

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