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Regime Switching Model of US Crude Oil and Stock Market Prices: 1859 to 2013

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Cited by:

  1. Chen, Lemeng & Lazrak, Skander & Wang, Yan & Welch, Robert, 2019. "Pure momentum is priced," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 75-89.
  2. Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh & Sami Ben Naceur & Mr. Oussama Kanaan & Christophe Rault, 2018. "Oil Prices and GCC Stock Markets: New Evidence from Smooth Transition Models," IMF Working Papers 2018/098, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2017. "Modeling systemic risk and dependence structure between oil and stock markets using a variational mode decomposition-based copula method," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 258-279.
  4. Kang, Sang Hoon & Arreola Hernandez, Jose & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2023. "Spillovers and hedging between US equity sectors and gold, oil, islamic stocks and implied volatilities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
  5. Oscar V. De la Torre-Torres & Evaristo Galeana-Figueroa & José Álvarez-García, 2021. "A Markov-Switching VSTOXX Trading Algorithm for Enhancing EUR Stock Portfolio Performance," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-28, May.
  6. Mo, Xuan & Su, Zhi & Yin, Libo, 2019. "Can the skewness of oil returns affect stock returns? Evidence from China’s A-Share markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
  7. Juncal Cunado & Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Xin Sheng, 2020. "Time-Varying Impact of Geopolitical Risks on Oil Prices," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(6), pages 692-706, August.
  8. Batten, Jonathan A. & Kinateder, Harald & Szilagyi, Peter G. & Wagner, Niklas F., 2019. "Time-varying energy and stock market integration in Asia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 777-792.
  9. Rangan Gupta & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Xin Sheng & Sowmya Subramaniam, 2023. "The role of oil and risk shocks in the high‐frequency movements of the term structure of interest rates: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1845-1857, April.
  10. Mobeen Ur Rehman, 2020. "Dynamic correlation pattern amongst alternative energy market for diversification opportunities," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 9(1), pages 1-24, December.
  11. Chang, Chia-Lin & McAleer, Michael & Wang, Yanghuiting, 2018. "Testing Co-Volatility spillovers for natural gas spot, futures and ETF spot using dynamic conditional covariances," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 984-997.
  12. David E. Allen & Chialin Chang & Michael McAleer & Abhay K Singh, 2018. "A cointegration analysis of agricultural, energy and bio-fuel spot, and futures prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(7), pages 804-823, February.
  13. Saif Siddiqui & Preeti Roy, 2019. "Predicting Volatility and Dynamic Relation Between Stock Market, Exchange Rate and Select Commodities," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 67(6), pages 1597-1611.
  14. Gupta, Rangan & Kanda, Patrick & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "Time-varying predictability of oil market movements over a century of data: The role of US financial stress," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
  15. Mehmet Balcilar & David Roubaud & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2019. "The Impact of Energy Market Uncertainty Shocks on Energy Transition in Europe," The Energy Journal, , vol. 40(1_suppl), pages 55-80, June.
  16. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Balli, Faruk & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & de Bruin, Anne, 2020. "Energy commodity uncertainties and the systematic risk of US industries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
  17. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "What are the categories of geopolitical risks that could drive oil prices higher? Acts or threats?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
  18. Zhang, Hao & Cai, Guixin & Yang, Dongxiao, 2020. "The impact of oil price shocks on clean energy stocks: Fresh evidence from multi-scale perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
  19. Bos, Martijn & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2018. "Oil returns and volatility: The role of mergers and acquisitions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 62-69.
  20. Jean Marcelin B. Brou & Mbodja Mougoué & Eugene Kouassi & Kebaabetswe Thulaganyo & Benjamin K. Acquah, 2022. "Effects of diamond price volatility on stock returns: Evidence from a developing economy," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 1025-1043, January.
  21. Mokni, Khaled & Al-Shboul, Mohammed & Assaf, Ata, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and dynamic spillover among precious metals under market conditions: Does COVID-19 have any effects?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
  22. Ben Cheikh, Nidhaleddine & Ben Naceur, Sami & Kanaan, Oussama & Rault, Christophe, 2021. "Investigating the asymmetric impact of oil prices on GCC stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
  23. Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark, 2017. "Forecasting oil and stock returns with a Qual VAR using over 150years off data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 181-186.
  24. Bilgili, Faik & Kassouri, Yacouba & Kuşkaya, Sevda & Majok Garang, Aweng Peter, 2024. "The dynamic nexus of oil price fluctuations and banking sector in China: A continuous wavelet analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
  25. Marfatia, Hardik A. & Gupta, Rangan & Cakan, Esin, 2021. "Dynamic impact of the U.S. monetary policy on oil market returns and volatility," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 159-169.
  26. Ahmed, Osama, 2021. "Do future markets protect the spot markets in developing countries? The case of the Egyptian wheat market," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 20(5), pages 65-83.
  27. Raheem, Ibrahim D., 2022. "Different strokes for different folks: The case of oil shocks and emerging equity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
  28. Huachen Li & Tiezheng Song, 2024. "Regime dependent dynamics of parallel and official exchange markets in China: evidence from cryptocurrency," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(41), pages 4952-4973, September.
  29. Liu, Yue & Sun, Huaping & Zhang, Jijian & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad, 2020. "Detection of volatility regime-switching for crude oil price modeling and forecasting," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
  30. Sheng, Xin & Marfatia, Hardik A. & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2021. "House price synchronization across the US states: The role of structural oil shocks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
  31. Li, Xiafei & Wei, Yu, 2018. "The dependence and risk spillover between crude oil market and China stock market: New evidence from a variational mode decomposition-based copula method," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 565-581.
  32. Nazlioglu, Saban & Gupta, Rangan & Gormus, Alper & Soytas, Ugur, 2020. "Price and volatility linkages between international REITs and oil markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
  33. Zhang, Guofu & Liu, Wei, 2018. "Analysis of the international propagation of contagion between oil and stock markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PA), pages 469-486.
  34. Semei Coronado & Rangan Gupta & Saban Nazlioglu & Omar Rojas, 2023. "Time‐varying causality between bond and oil markets of the United States: Evidence from over one and half centuries of data," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 2239-2247, July.
  35. Nima Nonejad, 2021. "Should crude oil price volatility receive more attention than the price of crude oil? An empirical investigation via a large‐scale out‐of‐sample forecast evaluation of US macroeconomic data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(5), pages 769-791, August.
  36. Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2016. "The impact of oil shocks on exchange rates: A Markov-switching approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 11-23.
  37. Rangan Gupta & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Xin Sheng & Sowmya Subramaniam, 2020. "The Role of Oil and Risk Shocks in the High-Frequency Movements of the Term Structure of Interest Rates of the United States," Working Papers 202063, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  38. Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Jacobus Nel & Christian Pierdzioch, 2020. "Effect of Rare Disaster Risks on Crude Oil: Evidence from El Nino from Over 140 Years of Data," Working Papers 2020104, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  39. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2015-026 is not listed on IDEAS
  40. Mohammadreza Mahmoudi & Hana Ghaneei, 2021. "Detection of Structural Regimes and Analyzing the Impact of Crude Oil Market on Canadian Stock Market: Markov Regime-Switching Approach," Papers 2109.01046, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2021.
  41. Gupta, Rangan & Kotzé, Kevin, 2017. "The role of oil prices in the forecasts of South African interest rates: A Bayesian approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 270-278.
  42. Serletis, Apostolos & Xu, Libo, 2019. "The ethanol mandate and crude oil and biofuel agricultural commodity price dynamics," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 1-1.
  43. Gupta, Rangan & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2018. "OPEC news and predictability of oil futures returns and volatility: Evidence from a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 206-214.
  44. Silvapulle, Param & Smyth, Russell & Zhang, Xibin & Fenech, Jean-Pierre, 2017. "Nonparametric panel data model for crude oil and stock market prices in net oil importing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 255-267.
  45. Nonejad, Nima, 2021. "The price of crude oil and (conditional) out-of-sample predictability of world industrial production," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
  46. Maud Korley & Evangelos Giouvris, 2021. "The Regime-Switching Behaviour of Exchange Rates and Frontier Stock Market Prices in Sub-Saharan Africa," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-30, March.
  47. Syed Abul Basher & Alfred Haug & Perry Sadorsky, 2017. "The impact of oil-market shocks on stock returns in major oil-exporting countries: A Markov-switching approach," Working Papers 1710, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2017.
  48. Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian & Polat, Onur, 2024. "Forecasting U.S. recessions using over 150 years of data: Stock-market moments versus oil-market moments," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(PB).
  49. Antonio Fernandois & Carlos A. Medel, 2020. "Geopolitical tensions, OPEC news, and the oil price: A granger causality analysis," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 35(2), pages 57-90, October.
  50. Afees A. Salisu & Rangan Gupta, 2023. "Oil Price Returns Skewness and Forecastability of International Stock Returns Over One Century of Data," Working Papers 202339, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  51. Abdollahi, Hooman, 2020. "A novel hybrid model for forecasting crude oil price based on time series decomposition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
  52. Nonejad, Nima, 2022. "Equity premium prediction using the price of crude oil: Uncovering the nonlinear predictive impact," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
  53. Ziadat, Salem Adel & McMillan, David G. & Herbst, Patrick, 2022. "Oil shocks and equity returns during bull and bear markets: The case of oil importing and exporting nations," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
  54. Ben-Salha, Ousama & Mokni, Khaled, 2022. "Detrended cross-correlation analysis in quantiles between oil price and the US stock market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
  55. Ferreiro Javier Ojea, 2019. "Structural change in the link between oil and the European stock market: implications for risk management," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 53-125, January.
  56. Shen, Zhiwei & Ritter, Matthias, 2016. "Forecasting volatility of wind power production," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 295-308.
  57. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Common cycles and common trends in the stock and oil markets: Evidence from more than 150years of data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 72-86.
  58. Plakandaras, Vasilios & Gupta, Rangan & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2019. "Point and density forecasts of oil returns: The role of geopolitical risks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 580-587.
  59. Kumar, Suresh & Choudhary, Sangita & Singh, Gurcharan & Singhal, Shelly, 2021. "Crude oil, gold, natural gas, exchange rate and indian stock market: Evidence from the asymmetric nonlinear ARDL model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
  60. Kumar, Satish, 2019. "Asymmetric impact of oil prices on exchange rate and stock prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 41-51.
  61. Qian, Lihua & Zeng, Qing & Li, Tao, 2022. "Geopolitical risk and oil price volatility: Evidence from Markov-switching model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 29-38.
  62. Lin, Ling & Zhou, Zhongbao & Jiang, Yong & Ou, Yangchen, 2021. "Risk spillovers and hedge strategies between global crude oil markets and stock markets: Do regime switching processes combining long memory and asymmetry matter?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
  63. Panayotis G. Papaioannou & George P. Papaioannou & George Evangelidis & George Gavalakis, 2024. "Detecting Structural breakpoints in natural gas and electricity wholesale prices via Bayesian ensemble approach, in the era of energy prices turmoil of 2022 period: the cases of ten European markets," Papers 2410.07224, arXiv.org.
  64. Arezoo Ghazanfari & Armin Razmjoo, 2022. "The Effect of Market Isolation on Competitive Behavior in Retail Petrol Markets," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-33, July.
  65. Sun, Chuanwang & Zhan, Yanhong & Peng, Yiqi & Cai, Weiyi, 2022. "Crude oil price and exchange rate: Evidence from the period before and after the launch of China's crude oil futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
  66. Feng, Yusen & Wang, Gang-Jin & Zhu, You & Xie, Chi, 2023. "Systemic risk spillovers and the determinants in the stock markets of the Belt and Road countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
  67. Nonejad, Nima, 2023. "Modeling the out-of-sample predictive relationship between equity premium, returns on the price of crude oil and economic policy uncertainty using multivariate time-varying dimension models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
  68. Mokni, Khaled, 2020. "A dynamic quantile regression model for the relationship between oil price and stock markets in oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
  69. Hassan, Kamrul & Hoque, Ariful & Gasbarro, Dominic, 2019. "Separating BRIC using Islamic stocks and crude oil: dynamic conditional correlation and volatility spillover analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 950-969.
  70. Huiming Zhu & Xianfang Su & Wanhai You & Yinghua Ren, 2017. "Asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on stock returns: evidence from a two-stage Markov regime-switching approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(25), pages 2491-2507, May.
  71. Hachicha, Néjib & Ben Amar, Amine & Ben Slimane, Ikrame & Bellalah, Makram & Prigent, Jean-Luc, 2022. "Dynamic connectedness and optimal hedging strategy among commodities and financial indices," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
  72. Shanshan Qin & Zhenni Tan & Yuehua Wu, 2024. "On robust estimation of hidden semi-Markov regime-switching models," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 338(2), pages 1049-1081, July.
  73. Lu, Xinjie & Ma, Feng & Wang, Jiqian & Zhu, Bo, 2021. "Oil shocks and stock market volatility: New evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
  74. Tang, Le & Jefferson, Gary, 2024. "A DSGE model of energy efficiency with vintage capital in Chinese industry," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
  75. Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2018. "The impact of oil-market shocks on stock returns in major oil-exporting countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 264-280.
  76. NIDHALEDDINE BEN CHEIKH & SAMI BEN NACEUR & OUSSAMA KANAAN & Christophe RAULT, 2019. "Oil Prices and GCC Stock Markets: New Evidence from Vector Smooth Transition Models," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2697, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
  77. Samet Gunay & Bojan Georgievski, 2018. "Effectiveness of Interest Rate Policy of the Fed in Management of Subprime Mortgage Crisis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-11, February.
  78. Yonghong Jiang & Jinqi Mu & He Nie & Lanxin Wu, 2022. "Time‐frequency analysis of risk spillovers from oil to BRICS stock markets: A long‐memory Copula‐CoVaR‐MODWT method," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3386-3404, July.
  79. Nima Nonejad, 2020. "Does the price of crude oil help predict the conditional distribution of aggregate equity return?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 313-349, January.
  80. Suman Das & Saikat Sinha Roy, 2021. "Predicting regime switching in BRICS currency volatility: a Markov switching autoregressive approach," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 48(2), pages 165-180, June.
  81. Enwereuzoh, Precious Adaku & Odei-Mensah, Jones & Owusu Junior, Peterson, 2021. "Crude oil shocks and African stock markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
  82. Smyth, Russell & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2018. "What do we know about oil prices and stock returns?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 148-156.
  83. Ugur Korkut Pata & Ojonugwa Usman & Godwin Olasehinde-Williams & Oktay Ozkan, 2024. "Stock Returns, Crude Oil and Gold Prices in Turkey: Evidence from Rolling Window-Based Nonparametric Quantile Causality Test," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 31(3), pages 779-797, September.
  84. Lv, Xin & Lien, Donald & Chen, Qian & Yu, Chang, 2018. "Does exchange rate management affect the causality between exchange rates and oil prices? Evidence from oil-exporting countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 325-343.
  85. Ilu, Ahmad Ibraheem, 2019. "Oil price Volatility and Exchange rate Dynamics in Nigeria: A Markov Switching Approach," MPRA Paper 97643, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  86. Zhang, Dayong & Cao, Hong & Dickinson, David G. & Kutan, Ali M., 2016. "Free cash flows and overinvestment: Further evidence from Chinese energy firms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 116-124.
  87. Salisu, Afees A. & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2022. "Forecasting oil prices over 150 years: The role of tail risks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
  88. Jammazi, Rania & Reboredo, Juan C., 2016. "Dependence and risk management in oil and stock markets. A wavelet-copula analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 866-888.
  89. Jamel JOUINI, 2018. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Impacts of Fiscal Policy Shocks in the Saudi Economy : A Markov Switching Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 55-70, December.
  90. Seuk Wai Phoong & Masnun Al Mahi & Seuk Yen Phoong, 2023. "A Markov Switching Approach in Assessing Oil Price and Stock Market Nexus in the Last Decade: The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(1), pages 21582440231, February.
  91. Kirikkaleli, Dervis, 2020. "The effect of domestic and foreign risks on an emerging stock market: A time series analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
  92. Maghyereh, Aktham & Abdoh, Hussein, 2021. "The impact of extreme structural oil-price shocks on clean energy and oil stocks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
  93. Navratil, Robert & Taylor, Stephen & Vecer, Jan, 2021. "On equity market inefficiency during the COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
  94. Nonejad, Nima, 2022. "Understanding the conditional out-of-sample predictive impact of the price of crude oil on aggregate equity return volatility," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
  95. Wang, Lu & Ma, Feng & Hao, Jianyang & Gao, Xinxin, 2021. "Forecasting crude oil volatility with geopolitical risk: Do time-varying switching probabilities play a role?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
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