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The Impact of Energy Market Uncertainty Shocks on Energy Transition in Europe

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  • Mehmet Balcilar
  • David Roubaud
  • Muhammad Shahbaz

Abstract

We study effects of energy market uncertainty shocks on energy transition on the 28 European Union countries from 1990 to 2015 using annual frequency data. We assess the effects of oil price as well as the energy market supply, demand, and residual price shocks using a time-varying parameter panel data stochastic volatility model. We show the importance of reducing energy market uncertainty for the success of a clean energy transition in Europe as uncertainties have strong time-varying effects on the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy. The oil price and residual energy price uncertainties are the key factors encouraging renewable energy transition that reduces the vulnerability of economies to energy shocks. Energy supply shocks affect the transition negatively while the demand shocks work similarly to residual energy prices shocks, requiring a robust energy base that is less volatile. The paper also discusses policy recommendations.

Suggested Citation

  • Mehmet Balcilar & David Roubaud & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2019. "The Impact of Energy Market Uncertainty Shocks on Energy Transition in Europe," The Energy Journal, , vol. 40(1_suppl), pages 55-80, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:40:y:2019:i:1_suppl:p:55-80
    DOI: 10.5547/01956574.40.SI1.mbal
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    Cited by:

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    5. Işık, Cem & Kuziboev, Bekhzod & Ongan, Serdar & Saidmamatov, Olimjon & Mirkhoshimova, Mokhirakhon & Rajabov, Alibek, 2024. "The volatility of global energy uncertainty: Renewable alternatives," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 297(C).
    6. Isaac Appiah-Otoo, 2021. "Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Renewable Energy Growth," Energy RESEARCH LETTERS, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 2(1), pages 1-5.
    7. Bruno Di Giusto & Joseph Lavallee & Igor Žilák & Yvonne Hu Di Giusto, 2024. "Public Opinion and the Energy Transition in East Asia: The Case of Taiwan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-20, May.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy transition; Uncertainty; Europe; Stochastic volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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