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Commodity Price Forecasting with Large-Scale Econometric Models and the Futures Market

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Sergio H. Lence & Dermot J. Hayes, 1995. "Optimal Hedging Under Forward‐Looking Behaviour," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 71(4), pages 329-342, December.
  2. Kastens, Terry L. & Schroeder, Ted C., 1993. "Expectations of Cattle Feeding Investors in Feeder Cattle Placements," Staff Papers 118159, Kansas State University, Department of Agricultural Economics.
  3. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Ines Fortin & Jaroslava Hlouskova & Michael Obersteiner, 2024. "Regime‐dependent commodity price dynamics: A predictive analysis," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(7), pages 2822-2847, November.
  4. Mr. Aasim M. Husain & Chakriya Bowman, 2004. "Forecasting Commodity Prices: Futures Versus Judgment," IMF Working Papers 2004/041, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Cady, David Walter, 1987. "Analysis of hedging strategies for southern Iowa stocker operations," ISU General Staff Papers 1987010108000017567, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  6. Haile, Mekbib G. & Wossen, Tesfamicheal & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2019. "Access to information, price expectations and welfare: The role of mobile phone adoption in Ethiopia," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 82-92.
  7. Skold, Karl Durwood, 1989. "The integration of alternative information systems: an application to the Hogs and Pigs report," ISU General Staff Papers 1989010108000010239, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  8. Bessler, David A., 1985. "The Forecast In Risk Analysis," Regional Research Projects > 1985: S-180 Annual Meeting, March 24-27, 1985, Charleston, South Carolina 271795, Regional Research Projects > S-180: An Economic Analysis of Risk Management Strategies for Agricultural Production Firms.
  9. Covey, Ted & Bessler, David A., 1991. "The Role of Futures in Daily Forward Pricing," 1991 Annual Meeting, August 4-7, Manhattan, Kansas 271282, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  10. Xu Xiaojie, 2018. "Using Local Information to Improve Short-Run Corn Price Forecasts," Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, January.
  11. Kauffman, Daniel, 1984. "An Evaluation of the Potential for a Market in Hog Contracts," Agricultural Economic Report Series 201342, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
  12. Harris, Kim & Herr, William McDaniel & Njinkeu, Dominique, 1985. "Evaluation Of Alternative Loan Volume Forecasting Models For The Federal Intermediate Credit Bank Of St. Louis," 1985 Regional Committee NC-161, October 9-10, 1985, St. Louis, Missouri 140935, Regional Research Committee NC-1014: Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition.
  13. Menkhaus, Dale J. & Adams, Richard M., 1981. "Forecasting Price Movements: An Application Of Discriminant Analysis," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 6(2), pages 1-10, December.
  14. William T. McSweeny & David E. Kenyon & Randall A. Kramer, 1987. "Toward an Appropriate Measure of Uncertainty in a Risk Programming Model," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 69(1), pages 87-96.
  15. Rausser, Gordon C & Carter, Colin, 1983. "Futures Market Efficiency in the Soybean Complex," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(3), pages 469-478, August.
  16. Sigl, Lukas & Hirschauer, Norbert, 2024. "The hedging efficiency of wheat futures in various types of farms in Germany," SocArXiv pvq9t, Center for Open Science.
  17. repec:ags:vtaesp:232463 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Huang, Wen-Yuan & Hyberg, Bengt & Segarra, Eduardo, 1990. "A Variable Price Support Farm Program: A Transition Tool To A Free Market," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 22(1), pages 1-11, July.
  19. McCarl, Bruce A., 1984. "Model Validation: An Overview with some Emphasis on Risk Models," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 52(03), pages 1-21, December.
  20. Gross, Martin, 1985. "A test of the efficiency of the aluminium and copper markets at the London Metal Exchange," Kiel Working Papers 243, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  21. Colino, Evelyn V. & Irwin, Scott H. & Garcia, Philip, 2008. "How Much Can Outlook Forecasts be Improved? An Application to the U.S. Hog Market," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37620, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
  22. Schonkwiler, J. Scott, 1982. "Rational Forecasts And Livestock Futures Performance," 1982 Annual Meeting, August 1-4, Logan, Utah 279186, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  23. Wilson, William W., 1982. "Hedging Effectiveness of U.S. Wheat Futures Markets," Agricultural Economics Reports 23215, North Dakota State University, Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics.
  24. Gutierrez, Luciano & Piras, Francesco & Olmeo, Maria Grazia, 2015. "Forecasting Wheat Commodity Prices using a Global Vector Autoregressive model," 2015 Fourth Congress, June 11-12, 2015, Ancona, Italy 207264, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
  25. Sengupta, Sanchita, 2010. "Three Essays in Environmental and Agricultural Issues," ISU General Staff Papers 201001010800002848, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  26. Irwin, Scott H. & Sanders, Dwight R. & Good, Darrel L., 2014. "Evaluation of Selected USDA WAOB and NASS Forecasts and Estimates in Corn and Soybeans," Marketing and Outlook Research Reports 183477, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
  27. Blank, Steven C., 1989. "Research On Futures Markets: Issues, Approaches, And Empirical Findings," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, July.
  28. Holt, Matthew T. & Brandt, Jon A., 1984. "Price Forecasting and Hedging to Enhance Prices and Reduce Risk," 1984 Annual Meeting, August 5-8, Ithaca, New York 278988, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  29. Cho, Gyu D., 1992. "Estimation of a Wheat Acreage Response Function for Kansas," Staff Papers 118174, Kansas State University, Department of Agricultural Economics.
  30. Paroissien, Emmanuel, 2020. "Forecasting bulk prices of Bordeaux wines using leading indicators," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 292-309.
  31. JunJie Wu & Richard M. Adams & Catherine L. Kling & Katsuya Tanaka, 2004. "From Microlevel Decisions to Landscape Changes: An Assessment of Agricultural Conservation Policies," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(1), pages 26-41.
  32. May, Gary J. & Lawrence, John D., 2002. "A Decision Model To Assess Cattle Feeding Price Risk," 2002 Conference, April 22-23, 2002, St. Louis, Missouri 19067, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
  33. Tao Xiong & Miao Li & Jia Cao, 2023. "Do Futures Prices Help Forecast Spot Prices? Evidence from China’s New Live Hog Futures," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-16, August.
  34. Brorsen, B. Wade & Bailey, DeeVon & Richardson, James W., 1984. "Investigation Of Price Discovery And Efficiency For Cash And Futures Cotton Prices," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 9(1), pages 1-7, July.
  35. Gordon, J. Douglas, 1985. "The Distribution of Daily Changes in Commodity Futures Prices," Technical Bulletins 156817, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  36. Haile, Mekbib G & Kalkuhl, Matthias & Usman, Muhammed A, 2015. "Market information and smallholder farmer price expectations," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 10(4), pages 1-15, December.
  37. Na Jin & Sergio Lence & Chad Hart & Dermot Hayes, 2012. "The Long-Term Structure of Commodity Futures," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 94(3), pages 718-735.
  38. Ates, Aaron M. & Lusk, Jayson L. & Brorsen, B. Wade, 2019. "Forecasting Meat Prices Using Consumer Expectations from the Food Demand Survey (FooDS)," Journal of Food Distribution Research, Food Distribution Research Society, vol. 50(1), March.
  39. Evelyn V. Colino & Scott H. Irwin, 2010. "Outlook vs. Futures: Three Decades of Evidence in Hog and Cattle Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(1), pages 1-15.
  40. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Jaroslava Hlouskova & Michael Obersteiner, 2021. "Agricultural commodity price dynamics and their determinants: A comprehensive econometric approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(7), pages 1245-1273, November.
  41. Antonovitz, Frances & Nelson, Ray D., 1987. "Forward And Futures Markets And The Competitive Firm Under Price Uncertainty," Regional Research Projects > 1987: S-180 Annual Meeting, March 22-25, 1987, San Antonio, Texas 272341, Regional Research Projects > S-180: An Economic Analysis of Risk Management Strategies for Agricultural Production Firms.
  42. Sanders, Dwight R. & Garcia, Philip & Manfredo, Mark R., 2008. "Information Content in Deferred Futures Prices: Live Cattle and Hogs," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 33(1), pages 1-12, April.
  43. Cloman, Livia & Epperson, James E. & Fu, Tsu-Tan, 1987. "Simultaneous Forecasting Of Price Magnitude And Direction Using Two-Stage Ols-Probit," 1987 Annual Meeting, August 2-5, East Lansing, Michigan 270145, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  44. Lewis T. Cunningham & B. Wade Brorsen & Kim B. Anderson & Emílio Tostão, 2008. "Gender differences in marketing styles," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 38(1), pages 1-7, January.
  45. Liu, Hsiang-Hsi, 1983. "An annual simultaneous equation econometric model of U.S. corn and soybean cash and futures markets," ISU General Staff Papers 198301010800009935, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  46. Elam, Emmett W. & Holder, Shelby H., 1985. "An Evaluation Of The Rice Outlook And Situation Price Forecasts," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 17(2), pages 1-7, December.
  47. Nerlove, Marc & Fornari, Ilaria, 1998. "Quasi-rational expectations, an alternative to fully rational expectations: An application to US beef cattle supply," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 129-161.
  48. Xiaojie Xu, 2017. "Short-run price forecast performance of individual and composite models for 496 corn cash markets," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(14), pages 2593-2620, October.
  49. Narinder Pal Singh & Archana Singh, 2017. "Empirical Investigation on Food Inflation and Efficiency Issues in Indian Agri-futures Market," Emerging Economy Studies, International Management Institute, vol. 3(2), pages 156-165, November.
  50. Matthew T. Holt & Andrew M. McKenzie, 2003. "Quasi-rational and ex ante price expectations in commodity supply models: an empirical analysis of the US broiler market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 407-426.
  51. Gordon, J. Douglas & Wang, George H. K., 1988. "Problems with an Econometric Test of Forecast Accuracy," 1988 Annual Meeting, August 1-3, Knoxville, Tennessee 270294, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  52. Braschler, Curtis H., 1983. "The Changing Demand Structure For Pork And Beef In The 1970s: Implications For The 1980s," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 15(2), pages 1-6, December.
  53. James E. Epperson & Stanley M. Fletcher, 1985. "Tandem Forecasting of Price and Probability–The Case of Watermelon," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 33(3), pages 375-385, November.
  54. Li, Jianping & Li, Guowen & Liu, Mingxi & Zhu, Xiaoqian & Wei, Lu, 2022. "A novel text-based framework for forecasting agricultural futures using massive online news headlines," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 35-50.
  55. Nyankori, James Cyprian Okuk & Hammig, Michael D., 1983. "Empirical Evaluation of the Relative Forecasting Performances of Fixed and Varying Coefficient Demand Models," Working Papers 117654, Clemson University, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
  56. Tomek, William G., 1996. "Commodity Futures Prices As Forecasts," Working Papers 127901, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
  57. Lence, Sergio Horacio, 1991. "Dynamic firm behavior under uncertainty," ISU General Staff Papers 1991010108000010656, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  58. Irwin, Scott H. & Gerlow, Mary E. & Liu, Te-Ru, 1991. "The Market Timing Value of Outlook Price Forecasts," 1991 Annual Meeting, August 4-7, Manhattan, Kansas 271261, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  59. Andrew McKenzie & Matthew Holt, 2002. "Market efficiency in agricultural futures markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(12), pages 1519-1532.
  60. Blank, Steven C., 1985. "Price Dependence And Futures Price Theory," Northeastern Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 14(2), pages 1-8, October.
  61. Havenner, Arthur & Modjtahedi, Bagher, 1986. "Foreign Exchange Rates: A Multiple Currency And Maturity Analysis," Working Papers 225804, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
  62. Groover, Gordon E., 1989. "An Evaluation Of Production And Marketing Strategies: A Portfolio Approach," 1989 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 2, Baton Rouge, Louisiana 270694, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  63. Choi, Jung-Sup & Helmberger, Peter G., 1993. "Acreage Response, Expected Price Functions, And Endogenous Price Expectations," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 18(1), pages 1-10, July.
  64. Schroeder, Ted C. & Parcell, Joseph L. & Kastens, Terry L. & Dhuyvetter, Kevin C., 1998. "Perceptions Of Marketing Strategies: Producers Versus Extension Economists," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 23(1), pages 1-15, July.
  65. Shonkwiler, John Scott, 1986. "Are Livestock Futures Prices Rational Forecasts?," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 11(2), pages 1-6, December.
  66. Unknown, 1990. "Structural Change in Livestock: Causes, Implications, Alternatives," Research Institute on Livestock Pricing 232728, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
  67. Luis F. Espinoza-Audelo & Maricruz Olazabal-Lugo & Fabio Blanco-Mesa & Ernesto León-Castro & Victor Alfaro-Garcia, 2020. "Bonferroni Probabilistic Ordered Weighted Averaging Operators Applied to Agricultural Commodities’ Price Analysis," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-16, August.
  68. Christian Langpap & JunJie Wu, 2011. "Potential Environmental Impacts of Increased Reliance on Corn-Based Bioenergy," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 49(2), pages 147-171, June.
  69. Kitchen, John, 1988. "Agricultural Futures Prices And New Information," Staff Reports 278066, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  70. Goetz, Cole & Miljkovic, Dragan & Barabanov, Nikita, 2021. "New empirical evidence in support of the theory of price volatility of storable commodities under rational expectations in spot and futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
  71. Bullock, J. Bruce, 1986. "Risk of What?," Working Papers 256565, University of Missouri Columbia, Department of Agricultural Economics.
  72. Koo, Won W. & Lehman, James R., 1984. "Effects of Government Programs on Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat Production in the U.S," Agricultural Economics Reports 23141, North Dakota State University, Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics.
  73. Yun, Won-Cheol & Purcell, Wayne D., 1995. "Impact of Deductibility of Futures Losses on Cattle Feeders' Involvement and the Effectiveness of the Price Discovery Process," Staff Papers 232514, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
  74. Bailey, DeeVon & Peterson, Monte C., 1989. "An Analysis of Factors Affecting Prices in Video Cattle Auctions," WAEA/ WFEA Conference Archive (1929-1995) 244937, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
  75. Chavas, Jean-Paul & Pope, Rulon D. & Kao, Robert S., 1983. "An Analysis Of The Role Of Futures Prices, Cash Prices And Government Programs In Acreage Response," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 8(1), pages 1-7, July.
  76. Xiaojie Xu, 2020. "Corn Cash Price Forecasting," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(4), pages 1297-1320, August.
  77. Gilmour, Brad & Fawcett, Peter, 1986. "The Relationship Between American and Canadian Wheat Prices," Working Papers 243885, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.
  78. Etienne, Xiaoli L. & Farhangdoost, Sara & Hoffman, Linwood A. & Adam, Brian D., 2023. "Forecasting the U.S. season-average farm price of corn: Derivation of an alternative futures-based forecasting model," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
  79. Holt, John, 1982. "Discussion: Research And Extension Issues In Production Economics," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 14(1), pages 1-2, July.
  80. Kastens, Terry L. & Schroeder, Ted C., 1996. "Efficiency Tests Of July Kansas City Wheat Futures," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 21(2), pages 1-12, December.
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