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Business Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy

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  1. Another Global Warming Uh-Oh
    by Dave in voluntaryXchange on 2007-11-29 23:52:00

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Cited by:

  1. Joseph H. Haimowitz, 1998. "The longevity of expansions," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 83(Q IV), pages 13-34.
  2. Robert Buckle & David Haugh & Peter Thomson, 2003. "Calm after the storm? Supply-side contributions to New Zealand's GDP volatility decline," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 217-243.
  3. Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2017. "Deep Recessions, Fast Recoveries, And Financial Crises: Evidence From The American Record," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(1), pages 527-541, January.
  4. Patrick Feve & Julien Matheron & Guillaume Sahuc, 2010. "Désinflation et chômage dans la zone euro : une analyse à l'aide d'un modèle var structurel," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 99-100, pages 365-394.
  5. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Diebolt, Claude & Ferrara, Laurent, 2015. "A new monthly chronology of the US industrial cycles in the prewar economy," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 3-9.
  6. Edwards, Sebastian & Biscarri, Javier Gomez & Perez de Gracia, Fernando, 2003. "Stock market cycles, financial liberalization and volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 925-955, December.
  7. Albuquerque, Rui & Eichenbaum, Martin & Papanikolaou, Dimitris & Rebelo, Sergio, 2015. "Long-run bulls and bears," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(S), pages 21-36.
  8. Pontines, Victor, 2017. "The financial cycles in four East Asian economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 51-66.
  9. Frédéric Carsoule & Philip Franses, 2003. "A note on monitoring time-varying parameters in an autoregression," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 51-62, February.
  10. Cashin, Paul & McDermott, C. John & Scott, Alasdair, 2002. "Booms and slumps in world commodity prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 277-296, October.
  11. Ahmed, Jameel & Straetmans, Stefan, 2015. "Predicting exchange rate cycles utilizing risk factors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 112-130.
  12. repec:dau:papers:123456789/6830 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Maria Gadea & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Antonio Montañés, 2012. "Cycles inside cycles: Spanish regional aggregation," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 423-456, December.
  14. António Rua, . "Dating the Portuguese business cycle," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  15. Marcelle Chauvet & Jeremy Piger, 2013. "Employment And The Business Cycle," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81, pages 16-42, October.
  16. Banerji, Anirvan & Hiris, Lorene, 2001. "A framework for measuring international business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 333-348.
  17. Pami Dua, 2007. "Predicting Indian Business Cycles: Leading Indices for External and Domestic Sectors," Working Papers id:1144, eSocialSciences.
  18. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1999. "Resuscitating real business cycles," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 14, pages 927-1007, Elsevier.
  19. Filardo, Andrew J. & Gordon, Stephen F., 1998. "Business cycle durations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 99-123, July.
  20. Bredin, Don & Fountas, Stilianos, 2018. "US inflation and inflation uncertainty over 200 years," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 141-159, August.
  21. Hans-Martin Krolzig & Michael P. Clements & Department of Economics & University of Warwick, 2001. "Modelling Business Cycle Features Using Switching Regime Models," Economics Series Working Papers 58, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  22. Hodula, Martin & Pfeifer, Lukáš & Janků, Jan, 2022. "The effect of structural risks on financial downturns," ESRB Working Paper Series 138, European Systemic Risk Board.
  23. Yongsung Chang & Sunoong Hwang, 2015. "Asymmetric Phase Shifts in U.S. Industrial Production Cycles," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(1), pages 116-133, March.
  24. Ferreira da Silva, Gisele, 2002. "The impact of financial system development on business cycles volatility: cross-country evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 233-253, June.
  25. Warren Thomson, 2016. "Influence of market states on industry returns," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 17(2), pages 119-134, March.
  26. Hong, Kiseok & Lee, Jong-Wha & Tang, Hsiao Chink, 2010. "Crises in Asia: Historical perspectives and implications," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 265-279, June.
  27. Paul Cashin & Sam Ouliaris, 2004. "Key Features of Australian Business Cycles," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 39-58, March.
  28. Harun Alp & Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Mustafa Kilinc & Canan Yuksel, 2012. "Stylized Facts for Business Cycles in Turkey," Working Papers 1202, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  29. Issler, Joao Victor & Vahid, Farshid, 2006. "The missing link: using the NBER recession indicator to construct coincident and leading indices of economic activity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 281-303, May.
  30. Andrew J. Filardo, 1997. "Cyclical implications of the declining manufacturing employment share," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 82(Q II), pages 63-87.
  31. Hong, Kiseok, 2010. "Fiscal Policy Issues in Korea after the Current Crisis," ADBI Working Papers 225, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  32. Bartoletto, Silvana & Chiarini, Bruno & Marzano, Elisabetta & Piselli, Paolo, 2019. "Business cycles, credit cycles, and asymmetric effects of credit fluctuations: Evidence from Italy for the period of 1861–2013," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-1.
  33. Ghysels, Eric, 1994. "On the Periodic Structure of the Business Cycle," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 289-298, July.
  34. Christian Aßmann & Jens Boysen-Hogrefe & Nils Jannsen, 2013. "Costs Of Housing Crises: International Evidence," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(4), pages 299-313, October.
  35. Martin Hodula & Jan Janku & Lukas Pfeifer, 2021. "Interaction of Cyclical and Structural Systemic Risks: Insights from Around and After the Global Financial Crisis," Research and Policy Notes 2021/03, Czech National Bank.
  36. Billio, Monica & Casarin, Roberto & Ravazzolo, Francesco & van Dijk, Herman K., 2012. "Combination schemes for turning point predictions," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 402-412.
  37. Gregory, Allan W. & Head, Allen C., 1999. "Common and country-specific fluctuations in productivity, investment, and the current account," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 423-451, December.
  38. Kirsten Lommatzsch & Sabine Stephan, 2001. "Seasonal Adjustment Methods and the Determination of Turning Points of the EMU Business Cycle," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 70(3), pages 399-415.
  39. Cover, James P. & Pecorino, Paul, 2005. "The length of US business expansions: When did the break in the data occur?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 452-471, September.
  40. Asea, Patrick K. & Blomberg, Brock, 1998. "Lending cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 89-128.
  41. Javier Gómez Biscarri, 2002. "Dating Recessions from Industrial Production Indexes: An Analysis for Europe and the US," Faculty Working Papers 05/02, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  42. Ghysels, E., 1992. "Charistmas, Spring and the Dawning of Economic Recovery," Cahiers de recherche 9215, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  43. Alexandra Krystaloyianni & George Matysiak & Sotiris Tsolacos, 2004. "Forecasting UK Real Estate Cycle Phases With Leading Indicators: A Probit Approach," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2004-15, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
  44. knani, ramzi & fredj, ali, 2010. "Mondialisation et fluctuations des cycles économiques [globalisation and business cycle fluctuation]," MPRA Paper 22755, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  45. Paul Cashin & C. John McCDermott, 2002. "The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices: Small Trends and Big Variability," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(2), pages 1-2.
  46. Rachidi Kotchoni & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2013. "Probability and Severity of Recessions," Cahiers de recherche 1341, CIRPEE.
  47. Li, Ziran & Sun, Jiajing & Wang, Shouyang, 2013. "An information diffusion-based model of oil futures price," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 518-525.
  48. Charles W. Calomiris & Christopher Hanes, 1994. "Historical Macroeconomics and American Macroeconomic History," NBER Working Papers 4935, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  49. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin, 2010. "Identifying business cycle turning points with sequential Monte Carlo methods: an online and real-time application to the Euro area," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 145-167.
  50. Marcelle Chauvet & Simon Potter, 2001. "Recent Changes in the US Business Cycle," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 69(5), pages 481-508, October.
  51. Jones, John Bailey, 2002. "Has fiscal policy helped stabilize the postwar U.S. economy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 709-746, May.
  52. Caterina Mendicino, 2006. "Credit Market and Macroeconomic Volatility," 2006 Meeting Papers 317, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  53. Edvinsson, Rodney & Hegelund, Erik, 2016. "The business cycle in historical perspective: Reconstructing quarterly data on Swedish GDP 1913-2014," Stockholm Papers in Economic History 18, Stockholm University, Department of Economic History.
  54. Bovi, M., 2005. "Economic Clubs and European Commitment. Evidence from the International Business Cycles," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 2(2), pages 101-122.
  55. Maurizio Bovi, 2005. "Globalization vs. Europeanization: A Business Cycles Race," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(3), pages 331-345, June.
  56. Silvana Bartoletto & Bruno Chiarini & Elisabetta Marzano & Paolo Piselli, 2015. "Business Cycles, Credit Cycles and Bank Holdings of Sovereign Bonds: Historical Evidence for Italy 1861-2013," CESifo Working Paper Series 5318, CESifo.
  57. Abderrezak, Ali, 1997. "Consumer expectations and cyclical durations," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 843-857.
  58. Maximo Camacho & María Dolores Gadea & Ana Gómez Loscos, 2022. "A New Approach to Dating the Reference Cycle," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 66-81, January.
  59. McKay, Alisdair & Reis, Ricardo, 2008. "The brevity and violence of contractions and expansions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 738-751, May.
  60. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-64, Elsevier.
  61. Louise Holm, 2016. "The Swedish business cycle, 1969-2013," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2015(2), pages 1-22.
  62. Selgin, George & Lastrapes, William D. & White, Lawrence H., 2012. "Has the Fed been a failure?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 569-596.
  63. Christina D. Romer, 1999. "Changes in Business Cycles: Evidence and Explanations," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 23-44, Spring.
  64. Maria Dolores Gadea Rivas & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2012. "The failure to predict the Great Recession. The failure of academic economics? A view focusing on the role of credit," Working Papers 1240, Banco de España.
  65. Lin, Boqiang & Wu, Ya & Zhang, Li, 2012. "Electricity saving potential of the power generation industry in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 307-316.
  66. Barberá De La Torre, Rafael Antonio & Doncel Pedrera, Luis Miguel & Sainz González, Jorge, 2006. "On the predictibility of the exchange rate behaviour: An application of Lucas' Model to the Spanish case/¿Es posible predecir el comportamiento del tipo de cambio? Una aplicación del modelo de Lucas a," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 24, pages 427-452, Abril.
  67. Billio Monica & Casarin Roberto, 2011. "Beta Autoregressive Transition Markov-Switching Models for Business Cycle Analysis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(4), pages 1-32, September.
  68. Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Margaret M. McConnell, 2000. "Output Fluctuations in the United States: What Has Changed since the Early 1980's?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1464-1476, December.
  69. Cunado, J. & Gil-Alana, L.A. & Gracia, Fernando Perez de, 2010. "Mean reversion in stock market prices: New evidence based on bull and bear markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 113-122, June.
  70. Barreiro Hurlé, Jesús & Pérez Y Pérez, Luis, 2006. "Social benefi ts of water quality improvement: an evaluation of the averting cost method in households/Benefi cios sociales de la mejora en la calidad del agua: una aproximación a partir de los costes," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 24, pages 453-476, Abril.
  71. Akdi, Yilmaz & Varlik, Serdar & Berument, M. Hakan, 2020. "Duration of Global Financial Cycles," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 549(C).
  72. Viv B. Hall & C. John McDermott, 2007. "Regional business cycles in New Zealand: Do they exist? What might drive them?," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 86(2), pages 167-191, June.
  73. C John McDermott & Alasdair Scott, 1999. "Concordance in business cycles," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/7, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  74. Bertrand Candelon & Jan Piplack & Stefan Straetmans, 2009. "Multivariate Business Cycle Synchronization in Small Samples," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(5), pages 715-737, October.
  75. Pedersen, Torben Mark & Elmer, Anne Marie, 2003. "International evidence on the connection between business cycles and economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 255-275, June.
  76. Dimelis, Sophia P., 2001. "Inventory investment over the business cycle in the EU and the US," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-3), pages 1-8, May.
  77. Beatriz C. Galvao, Ana, 2002. "Can non-linear time series models generate US business cycle asymmetric shape?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 187-194, October.
  78. Maurizio Bovi, 2003. "Nonparametric Analysis Of The International Business Cycles," ISAE Working Papers 37, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
  79. Amélie Charles & Chew Lian Chua & Olivier Darné & Sandy Suardi, 2021. "Oil price shocks, real economic activity and uncertainty," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 364-392, July.
  80. Chebbi, Ali, 2019. "How to enlarge the fiscal space and gain efficiency when adopting automatic fuel pricing mechanisms? The Tunisian case," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 34-43.
  81. Nicolau, João, 2016. "Structural change test in duration of bull and bear markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 64-67.
  82. Pami Dua & Anirvan Banerji, 2001. "A Leading Index for India's Exports," Occasional papers 1, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
  83. Breuer, Janice Boucher & Clements, Leianne A., 2003. "The commodity composition of US-Japanese trade and the yen/dollar real exchange rate," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 307-330, August.
  84. Kee Tuan Teng & Siew Hwa Yen & Soo Y. Chua, 2013. "The Synchronisation of ASEAN-5 Stock Markets with the Growth Rate Cycles of Selected Emerging and Developed Economies," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 7(1), pages 1-28, February.
  85. Tapia, Carlos & Coulton, Jeff & Saydam, Serkan, 2020. "Using entropy to assess dynamic behaviour of long-term copper price," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
  86. Guha, Debashis & Hiris, Lorene, 2002. "The aggregate credit spread and the business cycle," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 219-227.
  87. Craig, Lee A. & Holt, Matthew T., 2008. "Mechanical refrigeration, seasonality, and the hog-corn cycle in the United States: 1870-1940," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 30-50, January.
  88. Mr. Paul Cashin, 2004. "Caribbean Business Cycles," IMF Working Papers 2004/136, International Monetary Fund.
  89. Javier Gómez, 2007. "Changes in the Informational Content of the Spread: Is Monetary Policy Becoming Less Effective?," Faculty Working Papers 05/07, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  90. António Rua, 2017. "Dating the Portuguese business cycle," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  91. Chaojun Li & Yan Liu, 2020. "Asymptotic Properties of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator in Regime-Switching Models with Time-Varying Transition Probabilities," Papers 2010.04930, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2021.
  92. Reuben Ellul, "undated". "Timing the Maltese business cycle: A historical perspective," CBM Working Papers WP/01/2021, Central Bank of Malta.
  93. Ghysels, Eric, 1997. "On seasonality and business cycle durations: A nonparametric investigation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 269-290, August.
  94. Joseph Davis & Marc D. Weidenmier, 2016. "America's First Great Moderation," NBER Working Papers 21856, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  95. Dutra, Tiago Mota & Dias, José Carlos & Teixeira, João C.A., 2022. "Measuring financial cycles: Empirical evidence for Germany, United Kingdom and United States of America," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 599-630.
  96. Matthew Kofi Ocran & Nicholas Biekpe, 2007. "The Role Of Commodity Prices In Macroeconomic Policy In South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 75(2), pages 213-220, June.
  97. Peter F. Christoffersen, "undated". "Dating the Turning Points of Nordic Business Cycles," EPRU Working Paper Series 00-13, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  98. Pami Dua & Anirvan Banerji, 2007. "Predicting Indian Business Cycles," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 1(3), pages 249-265, July.
  99. Yýlmaz Akdi & Serdar Varlik & Hakan Berument, 2018. "Cycle Duration in Production with Periodicity – Evidence from Turkey," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 10(2), pages 24-32, September.
  100. Kiseok Hong, 2010. "Fiscal Policy Issues in Korea after the Current Crisis," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22754, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  101. Hiebert, Paul & Jaccard, Ivan & Schüler, Yves, 2018. "Contrasting financial and business cycles: Stylized facts and candidate explanations," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 72-80.
  102. Thomas L. Hogan & Daniel J. Smith, 2022. "War, money & economy: Inflation and production in the Fed and pre-Fed periods," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 35(1), pages 15-37, March.
  103. Hong, Kiseok & Tang, Hsiao Chink, 2012. "Crises in Asia: Recovery and policy responses," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 654-668.
  104. Roberts, Mark C., 2009. "Duration and characteristics of metal price cycles," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 87-102, September.
  105. Huachen Li, 2023. "The Time‐Varying Response of Hours Worked to a Productivity Shock," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(7), pages 1907-1935, October.
  106. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin, 2008. "Identifying Business Cycle Turning Points with Sequential Monte Carlo Methods," Working Papers 0815, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
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