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Predicting Indian Business Cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Pami Dua

    (Pami Dua is at the Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, University of Delhi, Delhi 110007, India, and Economic Cycle Research Institute, New York; e-mail: dua@econdse.org)

  • Anirvan Banerji

    (Anirvan Banerji is at Economic Cycle Research Institute, 420 Lexington Avenue, Suite 1626, New York, NY 10170, US; e-mail: anirvan@businesscycle.com)

Abstract

This paper evaluates the real-time performance of the Delhi School of Economics-Economic Cycle Research Institute (DSE-ECRI) Indian Leading Index for exports for predicting cyclical swings in Indian exports growth. The index comprises the 36-country real effective exchange rate and leading indices of India's 17 major trading partners. Leading indices of India's major trading partners were developed at the Economic Cycle Research Institute and forecast the onset and end of recessions in overall economic activity in these economies. The results show that the real-time performance of the leading index of Indian exports has been creditable in the last seven years since its construction in 2001. In conjunction with the DSE-ECRI Indian Leading Index, designed to monitor the domestic economy, the exports leading index forms a sound foundation for a pioneering effort to monitor Indian economic cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Pami Dua & Anirvan Banerji, 2007. "Predicting Indian Business Cycles," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 1(3), pages 249-265, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:mareco:v:1:y:2007:i:3:p:249-265
    DOI: 10.1177/097380100700100301
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    9. Pami Dua & Anirvan Banerji, 2001. "An Indicator Approach to Business and Growth Rate Cycles: The Case of India," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 55-78, January.
    10. Pami Dua & Anirvan Banerji, 2012. "Business And Growth Rate Cycles In India," Working papers 210, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Anirvan Banerji & Pami Dua, 2010. "Synchronisation of Recessions in Major Developed and Emerging Economies," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 4(2), pages 197-223, May.
    2. Pami Dua & Divya Tuteja, 2015. "Global Recession and Eurozone Debt Crisis: Impact on Exports of China and India," Working Papers id:7386, eSocialSciences.
    3. Pami Dua & Anirvan Banerji, 2012. "Business And Growth Rate Cycles In India," Working papers 210, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    JEL Classification: E32; JEL Classification: E37; JEL Classification: F17; Indian Leading Index; Exports; Evaluation of Leading Indicator; Lead Profile;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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