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Explaining the Failures of the Term Spread Models of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Alex Ilek & Tanya Suchoy & Nir Klein, 2006. "Estimating the premium implicit in the yields of Treasury Bills," Israel Economic Review, Bank of Israel, vol. 4(2), pages 53-83.
  2. Boero, G. & Torricelli, C., 1998. "Tests of the Expectations Hypothesis and Policy Reaction to the Term Spread: Some Comparative Evidence," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 512, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  3. Silva Lopes, Artur C. & Monteiro, Olga Susana, 2007. "The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure: Some Empirical Evidence for Portugal," MPRA Paper 6310, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Dec 2007.
  4. Luisa Malaguti & Costanza Torricelli, 2001. "The rational expectation dynamics of a model for the term structure and monetary policy," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 24(2), pages 137-152, November.
  5. Thornton, Daniel L., 2006. "Tests of the Expectations Hypothesis: Resolving the Campbell-Shiller Paradox," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 511-542, March.
  6. T.J. Flavin & M.R. Wickens, 2003. "Macroeconomic influences on optimal asset allocation," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(2), pages 207-231.
  7. Christian Mose Nielsen, 2005. "The information content of the term structure of interest rates about future inflation – an illustration of the importance of accounting for a time-varying real interest rate and inflation risk premiu," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 86, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  8. Hansen, Peter Reinhard, 2003. "Structural changes in the cointegrated vector autoregressive model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 261-295, June.
  9. Mark E. Wohar & Robert Sollis, 2007. "Tests for Asymmetric Threshold Cointegration with an Application to the Term Structure," Journal of Economic Insight, Missouri Valley Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 1-19.
  10. Tzavalis, Elias & Wickens, Michael, 1998. "A Re-examination of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure: Reconciling the Evidence from Long-Run and Short-Run Tests," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(3), pages 229-239, July.
  11. Durré Alain, 2006. "The Liquidity Premium in the Money Market: A Comparison of the German Mark Period and the Euro Area," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 7(2), pages 163-187, May.
  12. Durré, Alain & Evjen, Snorre & Pilegaard, Rasmus, 2003. "Estimating risk premia in money market rates," Working Paper Series 221, European Central Bank.
  13. Johannes Fedderke & Neryvia Pillay, 2010. "A Rational Expectations Consistent Measure of Risk: Using Financial Market Data from a Middle Income Context," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(6), pages 769-793, December.
  14. Marcello Pagnini & Paola Rossi & Valerio Vacca & Iftekhar Hasan & Liuling Liu & Haizhi Wang & Xinting Zhen, 2017. "Bank Market Power and Loan Contracts: Empirical Evidence," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 46(3), pages 649-676, November.
  15. Fabrizio Casalin, 2007. "Single Equation Models, Co-Integration and the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers 110, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised 2007.
  16. Enzo Weber & Jürgen Wolters, 2013. "Risk and Policy Shocks on the US Term Structure," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 60(1), pages 101-119, February.
  17. Arielle Beyaert & Juan Jose Perez-Castejon, 2009. "Markov-switching models, rational expectations and the term structure of interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 399-412.
  18. Peter Smith & Michael Wickens, 2002. "Asset Pricing with Observable Stochastic Discount Factors," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 397-446, July.
  19. Matteo Modena, 2008. "The Term Structure and the Expectations Hypothesis: a Threshold Model," Working Papers 2008_36, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  20. Olga Susana M. Monteiro & Artur C. B. da Silva Lopes, 2010. "Short- and Long-Run Tests of the Expectations Hypothesis: The Portuguese Case," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 56(3), pages 257-280.
  21. Carstensen, Kai, 2003. "Nonstationary term premia and cointegration of the term structure," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 409-413, September.
  22. Sadayuki Ono, 2007. "Term Structure Dynamics in a Monetary Economy with Learning," Discussion Papers 07/29, Department of Economics, University of York.
  23. Matteo Modena, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of the Curvature Factor of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers 2008_35, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  24. Osmani Teixeira De Carvalho Guillen & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2009. "Characterising the Brazilian term structure of interest rates," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 2(2), pages 103-114.
  25. Wickens, Michael R., 2014. "How did we get to where we are now? Reflections on 50 years of macroeconomic and financial econometrics," CEPR Discussion Papers 10197, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  26. Daniel L. Thornton, 2005. "Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Working Papers 2004-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  27. Loukia Meligkotsidou & Elias Tzavalis & Ioannis D. Vrontos, 2004. "A Bayesian Analysis of Unit Roots and Structural Breaks in the Level and the Error Variance of Autoregressive Models," Working Papers 514, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  28. Bulkley, George & Harris, Richard D.F. & Nawosah, Vivekanand, 2011. "Revisiting the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1202-1212, May.
  29. Heather Anderson, 1999. "Explanations of an empirical puzzle: what can be learnt from a test of the rational expectations hypothesis?," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 31-59.
  30. Carlos David Ardila-Dueñas & Hernán Rincón-Castro, 2019. "¿Cómo y qué tanto impacta la deuda pública a las tasas de interés de mercado?," Borradores de Economia 1077, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  31. Panagiotis T. Konstantinou, 2005. "The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure : A Look at the Polish Interbank Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 70-91, May.
  32. Matteo Bonato & Luca Taschini, 2016. "Comovement and the financialization of commodities," GRI Working Papers 215, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
  33. Cuthbertson, Keith & Bredin, Don, 2001. "Risk Premia and Long Rates in Ireland," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(6), pages 391-403, September.
  34. Graeme Guthrie & Julian Wright & Jun Yu, 1999. "Testing the expectations theory of the term structure for New Zealand," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 93-114.
  35. Casalin, Fabrizio, 2013. "Testing the expectations hypothesis of the term structure with permanent-transitory component models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3192-3203.
  36. Smant, David / D.J.C., 2010. "Direct tests of the expectations theory of the term structure: Survey expectations, the term premium and coefficient biases," MPRA Paper 19815, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  37. Benjamin Miranda Tabak & Sandro Canesso de Andrade, 2003. "Testing the Expectations Hypothesis in the Brazilian Term Structure of Interest Rates," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 1(1), pages 19-43.
  38. Kosfeld Reinhold, 2002. "Asset Price Channel and Financial Markets / Vermögenstheoretischer Transmissionsmechanismus und Finanzmärkte," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 222(4), pages 440-462, August.
  39. Johannes W. Fedderke & Neryvia Pillay Bell, 2007. "A Theoretically Defensible Measure of Risk: Using Financial Market Data from a Middle Income Context," Working Papers 064, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  40. Madura, J. & Wiley, M. K. & Zarruk, E. R., 1998. "Cointegration of term structure premiums across countries," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 393-412, November.
  41. Michael Wickens, 2015. "How Did We Get to Where We Are Now? Reflections on 50 Years of Macroeconomic and Financial Econometrics," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 83, pages 60-82, December.
  42. Nikolaos Mylonidis, 2006. "Time-Varying Risk Premia in the Single European Treasury Bill Market," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1-2), pages 65-84.
  43. Li, Jing & Davis, George, 2017. "Rethinking cointegration and the expectation hypothesis of the term structure," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 177-189.
  44. Christian Mose Nielsen, 2007. "Does the choice of interest rate data matter for the results of tests of the expectations hypothesis - some results for the UK," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 132, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  45. Ben Siu Cheong Fung & Scott Mitnick & Eli M Remolona, 1999. "Inflation Expectations and Risks in a Two-Country Affine-Yield Model," CGFS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Market Liquidity: Research Findings and Selected Policy Implications, volume 11, pages 1-23, Bank for International Settlements.
  46. John Anderson, 2003. "A Test of Weak-Form Market Efficiency in Australian Bank Bill Futures Calendar Spreads," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 134, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
  47. Meligkotsidou, Loukia & Tzavalis, Elias & Vrontos, Ioannis, 2017. "On Bayesian analysis and unit root testing for autoregressive models in the presence of multiple structural breaks," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 4(C), pages 70-90.
  48. Gianna Boero & Costanza Torricelli, 2002. "The information in the term structure of German interest rates," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 21-45.
  49. Argyropoulos Efthymios & Tzavalis Elias, 2015. "Term spread regressions of the rational expectations hypothesis of the term structure allowing for risk premium effects," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 49-70, February.
  50. Dieter Nautz & Jürgen Wolters, 1999. "The response of long-term interest rates to news about monetary policy actions: Empirical evidence for the U.S. and Germany," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 135(3), pages 397-412, September.
  51. Felix Geiger, 2009. "International Interest-Rate Risk Premia in Affine Term Structure Models," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 316/2009, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
  52. Guidolin, Massimo & Thornton, Daniel L., 2018. "Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 636-664.
  53. Modena, Matteo, 2008. "Yield curve, time varying term premia, and business cycle fluctuations," MPRA Paper 8873, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  54. Marc Tomljanovich, 2007. "Does Central Bank Transparency Impact Financial Markets? A Cross‐Country Econometric Analysis," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 73(3), pages 791-813, January.
  55. Thomas J. Flavin & Michael R. Wickens, 1998. ": A Risk Management Approach to Optimal Asset Allocation," Economics Department Working Paper Series n851298, Department of Economics, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
  56. Elias, Nikolaos & Smyrnakis, Dimitris & Tzavalis, Elias, 2022. "Predicting future exchange rate changes based on interest rates and holding-period returns differentials net of the forward risk premium effects," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 694-715.
  57. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Evangelia A. Georgiou, 2022. "The effects of Federal Reserve's quantitative easing and balance sheet normalization policies on long-term interest rates," Working Papers 299, Bank of Greece.
  58. Hiona Balfoussia & Mike Wickens, 2007. "Macroeconomic Sources of Risk in the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(1), pages 205-236, February.
  59. Ono, Sadayuki, 2019. "Term structure dynamics in a monetary economy with learning," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 730-745.
  60. Tzavalis, Elias, 2004. "The term premium and the puzzles of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 73-93, January.
  61. Konstantinou, Panagiotis, 2004. "Term Structure Dynamics: A Daily View from the Hungarian Foreign Currency Deposits Markets," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 57(3), pages 315-331.
  62. Kotomin, Vladimir, 2011. "A test of the expectations hypothesis in very short-term international rates in the presence of preferred habitat for liquidity," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 49-55, February.
  63. Li-Hsueh Chen, 2001. "Inflation and real short-term interest rates - A Kalman filter analysis of the term structure," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(7), pages 855-861.
  64. K. Cuthbertson & D. Nitzsche & S. Hyde, 2007. "Monetary Policy And Behavioural Finance," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 935-969, December.
  65. Basma Bekdache & Christopher F. Baum, 1998. "Modeling fixed income excess returns," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 409, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 14 Apr 2000.
  66. Argyropoulos, Efthymios & Tzavalis, Elias, 2015. "Real term structure forecasts of consumption growth," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 208-222.
  67. G. Boero & C. Torricelli, 1999. "The Information in the Term of Structure: further Results for Germany," Working Paper CRENoS 199912, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
  68. repec:bla:germec:v:7:y:2006:i::p:163-187 is not listed on IDEAS
  69. Michael Gordon, 2003. "Estimates of time-varying term premia for New Zealand and Australia," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2003/06, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  70. Benjamin Tabak, 2009. "Testing the expectations hypothesis in the Brazilian term structure of interest rates: a cointegration analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(21), pages 2681-2689.
  71. Peter Reinhard Hansen, 2000. "Structural Breaks in the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1240, Econometric Society.
  72. K. Azim Özdemir & Özgür Özel, 2011. "Regime changes in monetary policy and the Expectation Hypothesis of the term structure in Turkey," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 261-274, May.
  73. Cuthbertson, Keith & Nitzsche, Dirk, 2003. "Long rates, risk premia and the over-reaction hypothesis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 417-435, March.
  74. Toni Gravelle & James Morley, 2005. "A Kalman filter approach to characterizing the Canadian term structure of interest rates," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(10), pages 691-705.
  75. Ben Fung & Scott Mitnick & Eli Remolona, 1999. "Uncovering Inflation Expectations and Risk Premiums From Internationally Integrated Financial Markets," Staff Working Papers 99-6, Bank of Canada.
  76. Avdoulas Christos & Bekiros Stelios & Lucey Brian, 2020. "The term structure of Eurozone peripheral bond yields: an asymmetric regime-switching equilibrium correction approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(4), pages 1-23, September.
  77. Argyropoulos, Efthymios & Tzavalis, Elias, 2021. "The influence of real interest rates and risk premium effects on the ability of the nominal term structure to forecast inflation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 785-796.
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