IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/quaeco/v51y2011i1p49-55.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A test of the expectations hypothesis in very short-term international rates in the presence of preferred habitat for liquidity

Author

Listed:
  • Kotomin, Vladimir

Abstract

This study incorporates year-end and quarter-end preferences for liquidity and other calendar-time effects into the test of the expectations hypothesis (EH) in the very short-term LIBOR (maturities of one month and shorter) in seven major world currencies. The calendar-time effects are found to alter long-term relations between very short-term rates in these currencies. These effects alone are not responsible for the rejection of the EH in the data, as it is rejected in most of the cases even after appropriate controls are introduced. However, such effects are capable of causing the EH to be rejected and should be controlled for when testing the EH in very short-term rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Kotomin, Vladimir, 2011. "A test of the expectations hypothesis in very short-term international rates in the presence of preferred habitat for liquidity," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 49-55, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:51:y:2011:i:1:p:49-55
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062-9769(10)00069-4
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Della Corte, Pasquale & Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L., 2008. "The expectation hypothesis of the term structure of very short-term rates: Statistical tests and economic value," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 158-174, July.
    2. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Marshall, David A., 1997. "On biases in tests of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 309-348, June.
    3. Mark D. Griffiths & Drew B. Winters, 2005. "The Turn of the Year in Money Markets: Tests of the Risk-Shifting Window Dressing and Preferred Habitat Hypotheses," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(4), pages 1337-1364, July.
    4. Griffiths, Mark D. & Kotomin, Vladimir & Winters, Drew B., 2009. "Year-end and quarter-end effects in the term structure of sterling repo and Eurepo rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 803-817, December.
    5. Longstaff, Francis A., 2000. "The term structure of very short-term rates: New evidence for the expectations hypothesis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 397-415, December.
    6. Mark Griffiths & Drew Winters, 1997. "On a Preferred Habitat for Liquidity at the Turn-of-the-Year: Evidence from the Term-Repo Market," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 12(1), pages 21-38, August.
    7. Kotomin, Vladimir & Smith, Stanley D. & Winters, Drew B., 2008. "Preferred habitat for liquidity in international short-term interest rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 240-250, February.
    8. Downing, Chris & Oliner, Stephen, 2007. "The term structure of commercial paper rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 59-86, January.
    9. Brown, Craig R. & Cyree, Ken B. & Griffiths, Mark D. & Winters, Drew B., 2008. "Further analysis of the expectations hypothesis using very short-term rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 600-613, April.
    10. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514.
    11. Tzavalis, Elias & Wickens, Michael R, 1997. "Explaining the Failures of the Term Spread Models of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 364-380, August.
    12. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
    13. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    14. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:1:p:365-383 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hassan Shareef & Santhakumar Shijin, 2016. "Expectations Hypothesis and Term Structure of Interest Rates: An Evidence from Emerging Market," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 23(2), pages 137-152, June.
    2. Hernandis, Lucía & Torró, Hipòlit, 2013. "The information content of Eonia swap rates before and during the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5316-5328.
    3. Kopchak, Seth J., 2013. "The realized forward term premium in the repo market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 253-278.
    4. Ahmed S. Baig & Drew B. Winters, 2021. "Month-End Regularities in the Overnight Bank Funding Markets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-16, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Brown, Craig R. & Cyree, Ken B. & Griffiths, Mark D. & Winters, Drew B., 2008. "Further analysis of the expectations hypothesis using very short-term rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 600-613, April.
    2. Benjamin Tabak, 2009. "Testing the expectations hypothesis in the Brazilian term structure of interest rates: a cointegration analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(21), pages 2681-2689.
    3. Griffiths, Mark D. & Kotomin, Vladimir & Winters, Drew B., 2009. "Year-end and quarter-end effects in the term structure of sterling repo and Eurepo rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 803-817, December.
    4. Cuthbertson, Keith & Nitzsche, Dirk, 2003. "Long rates, risk premia and the over-reaction hypothesis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 417-435, March.
    5. Bulkley, George & Harris, Richard D.F. & Nawosah, Vivekanand, 2011. "Revisiting the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1202-1212, May.
    6. Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas & Steffensen, Sigurd A.M., 2022. "Monetary policy expectation errors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 841-858.
    7. K. Cuthbertson & D. Nitzsche & S. Hyde, 2007. "Monetary Policy And Behavioural Finance," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 935-969, December.
    8. Antonio Díaz & Francisco Jareño & Eliseo Navarro, 2020. "Yield curves from different bond data sets," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 191-226, July.
    9. Guidolin, Massimo & Thornton, Daniel L., 2018. "Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 636-664.
    10. Thornton, Daniel L., 2006. "Tests of the Expectations Hypothesis: Resolving the Campbell-Shiller Paradox," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 511-542, March.
    11. Kopchak, Seth J., 2013. "The realized forward term premium in the repo market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 253-278.
    12. Hiona Balfoussia & Mike Wickens, 2007. "Macroeconomic Sources of Risk in the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(1), pages 205-236, February.
    13. Daniel L. Thornton, 2005. "Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Working Papers 2004-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    14. Hernandis, Lucía & Torró, Hipòlit, 2013. "The information content of Eonia swap rates before and during the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5316-5328.
    15. Marc Tomljanovich, 2007. "Does Central Bank Transparency Impact Financial Markets? A Cross‐Country Econometric Analysis," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 73(3), pages 791-813, January.
    16. Fabian Hollstein & Marcel Prokopczuk & Chardin Wese Simen, 2019. "The term structure of systematic and idiosyncratic risk," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(4), pages 435-460, April.
    17. Jiyoung Lee, 2015. "Disentangling the Predictive Power of Term Spreads under Inflation Targeting," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 419-450, September.
    18. Brito, Ricardo D. & Duarte, Angelo José Mont' Alverne & Guillen, Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho, 2004. "Overreaction of yield spreads and movements of Brazilian interest ratest," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 24(1), May.
    19. Hassan Shareef & Santhakumar Shijin, 2016. "Expectations Hypothesis and Term Structure of Interest Rates: An Evidence from Emerging Market," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 23(2), pages 137-152, June.
    20. Harrathi Nizar & Alhoshan Hamed M., 2020. "Validity of the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates: The Case of Saudi Arabia," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 1-18, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:51:y:2011:i:1:p:49-55. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620167 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.