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Time-Varying Risk Premia in the Single European Treasury Bill Market

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  • Nikolaos Mylonidis

Abstract

This paper investigates the validity of the expectations hypothesis (EH) with time-varying, albeit stationary, term premia in the Ecu Treasury bill market. The analysis utilises the term premium factor representation proposed by Tzavalis and Wickens (1997) and the modified VAR approach by Cuthbertson et al. (1997). The findings indicate that once time-varying term premia are accounted for, estimated models cannot reject the predictions of the EH. However, these term premia do not exhibit strong persistence. The rejection of the spread restriction for (n,m)=(26-week,13-week) may be due to a small I(1) term premium and/or a slight misalignment of investment horizons.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikolaos Mylonidis, 2006. "Time-Varying Risk Premia in the Single European Treasury Bill Market," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1-2), pages 65-84.
    • Handle: RePEc:ers:journl:v:ix:y:2006:i:1-2:p:65-84
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael Bowe & Nikolaos Mylonidis, 1999. "Is the European Capital Market Ready for the Single Currency?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1‐2), pages 1-32, January.
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    5. Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell & Kermit L. Schoenholtz, 1983. "Forward Rates and Future Policy: Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 14(1), pages 173-224.
    6. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514.
    7. Tzavalis, Elias & Wickens, Michael R, 1997. "Explaining the Failures of the Term Spread Models of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 364-380, August.
    8. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1982. "Monetary Policy and Short-Term Interest Rates: An Efficient Markets-Rational Expectations Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(1), pages 63-72, March.
    9. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Expectations hypothesis; Risk Premia; Perfect foresight regressions; VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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