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Tests of the Expectations Hypothesis and Policy Reaction to the Term Spread: Some Comparative Evidence

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  • Boero, G.
  • Torricelli, C.

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the impact of monetary policy in tests of the Expectations Hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates. We apply the model developed by McCallum (1994b), in which the Expectations Hypothesis interacts with a policy reaction function and with a time-varying term premium, to eight countries with different monetary policy stances, within the period 1985 to 1995. The results suggest the importance of the treatment of monetary policy in explaining the empirical performance of the Expectations Hypothesis. Amongst other results, we also find that the model performs better for some countries than others depending upon the monetary policy stance adopted.

Suggested Citation

  • Boero, G. & Torricelli, C., 1998. "Tests of the Expectations Hypothesis and Policy Reaction to the Term Spread: Some Comparative Evidence," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 512, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:512
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    1. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Marshall, David A., 1997. "On biases in tests of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 309-348, June.
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    4. Kugler, Peter, 1997. "Central Bank Policy Reaction and the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(3), pages 217-224, July.
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    8. McCallum, Bennett T., 1983. "On non-uniqueness in rational expectations models : An attempt at perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 139-168.
    9. Hsu, Chiente & Kugler, Peter, 1997. "The Revival of the Expectations Hypothesis of the US Term Structure of Interest Rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 115-120, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Luisa Malaguti & Costanza Torricelli, 2001. "The rational expectation dynamics of a model for the term structure and monetary policy," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 24(2), pages 137-152, November.
    2. M. Isabel Martínez-Serna & Eliseo Navarro-Arribas, 2002. "El modelo de McCallum. Evidencia empírica en la estructura temporal de los tipos de interés española," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 26(2), pages 323-357, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    EXPECTATIONS ; INTEREST RATE ; MONETARY POLICY;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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