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Uncertainty in traffic forecasts: literature review and new results for The Netherlands

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  1. West, Jens & Börjesson, Maria & Engelson, Leonid, 2016. "Accuracy of the Gothenburg congestion charges forecast," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 266-277.
  2. Börjesson, Maria & Jonsson , Daniel & Berglund, Svante & Almström , Peter, 2013. "Land-use impacts in transport appraisal," Working papers in Transport Economics 2013:32, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
  3. Daly, Andrew & Hess, Stephane & de Jong, Gerard, 2012. "Calculating errors for measures derived from choice modelling estimates," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 333-341.
  4. Bastian, Anne & Börjesson, Maria, 2014. "It's the economy, stupid: increasing fuel price is enough to explain Peak Car in Sweden," Working papers in Transport Economics 2014:15, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
  5. Anna Matas & Josep-Lluis Raymond & Adriana Ruiz, 2012. "Traffic forecasts under uncertainty and capacity constraints," Transportation, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 1-17, January.
  6. Andersson, Matts & Brundell-Freij, Karin & Eliasson, Jonas, 2017. "Validation of aggregate reference forecasts for passenger transport," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 101-118.
  7. Westin, Jonas & de Jong, Gerard & Vierth, Inge & Krüger, Niclas & Karlsson, Rune & Johansson, Magnus, 2015. "Baserunning - analyzing the sensitivity and economies of scale of the Swedish national freight model system using stochastic production-consumption-matrices," Working papers in Transport Economics 2015:10, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI), revised 15 Sep 2016.
  8. Sanko, Nobuhiro & Morikawa, Takayuki & Nagamatsu, Yoshitaka, 2013. "Post-project evaluation of travel demand forecasts: Implications from the case of a Japanese railway," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 209-218.
  9. Holz-Rau, Christian & Scheiner, Joachim, 2011. "Safety and travel time in cost-benefit analysis: A sensitivity analysis for North Rhine-Westphalia," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 336-346, March.
  10. Barreto Martins, Diogo & Strambi, Orlando, 2021. "Forecasting upon a star: Forecasting or wishful thinking?," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
  11. Maria Börjesson & Jonas Eliasson & Mattias Lundberg, 2014. "Is CBA Ranking of Transport Investments Robust?," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 48(2), pages 189-204, May.
  12. David Hartgen, 2013. "Hubris or humility? Accuracy issues for the next 50 years of travel demand modeling," Transportation, Springer, vol. 40(6), pages 1133-1157, November.
  13. Asplund, Disa & Eliasson, Jonas, 2016. "Does uncertainty make cost-benefit analyses pointless?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 195-205.
  14. Parthasarathi, Pavithra & Levinson, David, 2010. "Post-construction evaluation of traffic forecast accuracy," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 428-443, November.
  15. Wheat, Phill & Batley, Richard, 2015. "Quantifying and decomposing the uncertainty in appraisal value of travel time savings," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 134-142.
  16. Gang Lin & Honglei Xu & Shaoli Wang & Conghua Lin & Fan Zhang & Junxiang Zhu, 2024. "Navigating Uncertainty: A Framework for Optimising Public Transport Networks’ Performance," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-24, February.
  17. Kim, Kangsoo & Cho, Hyejin & Park, Sunwook & You, Soyoung Iris, 2024. "Uncertainties in the economic analysis of Korea’s preliminary feasibility study," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
  18. Ton, Danique & Bekhor, Shlomo & Cats, Oded & Duives, Dorine C. & Hoogendoorn-Lanser, Sascha & Hoogendoorn, Serge P., 2020. "The experienced mode choice set and its determinants: Commuting trips in the Netherlands," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 744-758.
  19. Nobuhiro Sanko, 2017. "Temporal transferability: trade-off between data newness and the number of observations for forecasting travel demand," Transportation, Springer, vol. 44(6), pages 1403-1420, November.
  20. Glenn Lyons & Greg Marsden, 2021. "Opening out and closing down: the treatment of uncertainty in transport planning’s forecasting paradigm," Transportation, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 595-616, April.
  21. Noelia Caceres & Luis M. Romero & Francisco J. Morales & Antonio Reyes & Francisco G. Benitez, 2018. "Estimating traffic volumes on intercity road locations using roadway attributes, socioeconomic features and other work-related activity characteristics," Transportation, Springer, vol. 45(5), pages 1449-1473, September.
  22. Niek Mouter & Jan Annema & Bert Wee, 2015. "Managing the insolvable limitations of cost-benefit analysis: results of an interview based study," Transportation, Springer, vol. 42(2), pages 277-302, March.
  23. Greg Marsden & Noreen C. McDonald, 2019. "Institutional issues in planning for more uncertain futures," Transportation, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 1075-1092, August.
  24. Andrew Daly, 2013. "Forecasting behaviour: with applications to transport," Chapters, in: Stephane Hess & Andrew Daly (ed.), Choice Modelling, chapter 2, pages 48-72, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  25. Hoque, Jawad Mahmud & Erhardt, Gregory D. & Schmitt, David & Chen, Mei & Wachs, Martin, 2021. "Estimating the uncertainty of traffic forecasts from their historical accuracy," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 339-349.
  26. Kangsoo Kim & Jinseog Kim & Hyejin Cho & Donghyung Yook, 2024. "Determining contract conditions in a PPP project among deep uncertainty in future outturn travel demand," Transportation, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 937-961, June.
  27. Zannat, Khatun E. & Choudhury, Charisma F. & Hess, Stephane, 2024. "Modelling time-of-travel preferences capturing correlations between departure times and activity durations," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
  28. Rafael Bernardo Carmona-Benítez & María Rosa Nieto, 2017. "Comparison of bootstrap estimation intervals to forecast arithmetic mean and median air passenger demand," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(7), pages 1211-1224, May.
  29. Bastian, Anne & Börjesson, Maria, 2015. "Peak car? Drivers of the recent decline in Swedish car use," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 94-102.
  30. Andrew Daly, 2014. "Forecasting choice," Chapters, in: Stephane Hess & Andrew Daly (ed.), Handbook of Choice Modelling, chapter 25, pages 627-646, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  31. Morten Skou Nicolaisen & Patrick A. Driscoll, 2016. "An International Review of Ex-Post Project Evaluation Schemes in the Transport Sector," Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Management (JEAPM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(01), pages 1-33, March.
  32. Manzo, Stefano & Nielsen, Otto Anker & Prato, Carlo Giacomo, 2015. "How uncertainty in input and parameters influences transport model :output A four-stage model case-study," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 64-72.
  33. Börjesson, Maria & Jonsson, R. Daniel & Berglund, Svante & Almström, Peter, 2014. "Land-use impacts in transport appraisal," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 82-91.
  34. Aguas, Oriana & Bachmann, Chris, 2022. "Assessing the effects of input uncertainties on the outputs of a freight demand model," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
  35. Yang, Chao & Chen, Anthony & Xu, Xiangdong & Wong, S.C., 2013. "Sensitivity-based uncertainty analysis of a combined travel demand model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 225-244.
  36. Andersson, Matts & Brundell-Freij, Karin & Eliasson, Jonas, 2016. "Validation of reference forecasts for passenger transport," Working papers in Transport Economics 2016:15, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI), revised 07 Jul 2016.
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