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Traffic forecasts under uncertainty and capacity constraints

Author

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  • Anna Matas
  • Josep-Lluis Raymond
  • Adriana Ruiz

Abstract

Traffic forecasts provide essential input for the appraisal of transport investment projects. However, according to recent empirical evidence, long-term predictions are subject to high levels of uncertainty. This paper quantifies uncertainty in traffic forecasts for the tolled motorway network in Spain. Uncertainty is quantified in the form of a confidence interval for the traffic forecast that includes both model uncertainty and input uncertainty. We apply a stochastic simulation process based on bootstrapping techniques. Furthermore, the paper proposes a new methodology to account for capacity constraints in long-term traffic forecasts. Specifically, we suggest a dynamic model in which the speed of adjustment is related to the ratio between the actual traffic flow and the maximum capacity of the motorway. This methodology is applied to a specific public policy that consists of suppressing the toll on a certain motorway section before the concession expires.
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Suggested Citation

  • Anna Matas & Josep-Lluis Raymond & Adriana Ruiz, 2012. "Traffic forecasts under uncertainty and capacity constraints," Transportation, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 1-17, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:transp:v:39:y:2012:i:1:p:1-17
    DOI: 10.1007/s11116-011-9325-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Anna Matas & José-Luis Raymond, 2002. "The demand elasticity on tolled motorways," Working Papers wp0203, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
    2. Geoff Riddington, 2006. "Long Range Air Traffic Forecasts for the UK: A Critique," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 40(2), pages 297-314, May.
    3. Gerard Jong & Andrew Daly & Marits Pieters & Stephen Miller & Ronald Plasmeijer & Frank Hofman, 2007. "Uncertainty in traffic forecasts: literature review and new results for The Netherlands," Transportation, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 375-395, July.
    4. Robert Bain, 2009. "Error and optimism bias in toll road traffic forecasts," Transportation, Springer, vol. 36(5), pages 469-482, September.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Anna Castañer & Mª Mercè Claramunt & Alba Tadeo & Javier Varea, 2016. "Modelización de la dependencia del número de siniestros. Aplicación a Solvencia II," Working Papers XREAP2016-01, Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP), revised Sep 2016.
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    11. Garrido, Laura & Gomez, Juan & Baeza, María de los Ángeles & Vassallo, José Manuel, 2017. "Is EU financial support enhancing the economic performance of PPP projects? An empirical analysis on the case of spanish road infrastructure," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 19-28.
    12. Fernando Romero & Juan Gomez & Thais Rangel & Rafael Jurado-Piña & José Manuel Vassallo, 2020. "The influence of variable message signs on en-route diversion between a toll highway and a free competing alternative," Transportation, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1665-1687, August.
    13. Plakandaras, Vasilios & Papadimitriou, Theophilos & Gogas, Periklis, 2019. "Forecasting transportation demand for the U.S. market," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 195-214.
    14. Juan Gomez & José Manuel Vassallo & Israel Herraiz, 2016. "Explaining light vehicle demand evolution in interurban toll roads: a dynamic panel data analysis in Spain," Transportation, Springer, vol. 43(4), pages 677-703, July.
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