IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/r/hhs/iiessp/0621.html
   My bibliography  Save this item

New Techniques to Extract Market Expectations from Financial Instruments

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as


Cited by:

  1. Rafael Barros de Rezende, 2011. "Giving Flexibility to the Nelson-Siegel Class of Term Structure Models," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 9(1), pages 27-49.
  2. Allan M. Malz, 1998. "Interbank interest rates as term structure indicators," Research Paper 9803, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  3. Nakamura, Hisashi & Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 1999. "Extracting Market Expectations from Option Prices: Case Studies in Japanese Option Markets," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 17(1), pages 1-43, May.
  4. Leo Krippner, 2003. "Modelling the Yield Curve with Orthonormalised Laguerre Polynomials: A Consistent Cross-Sectional and Inter-Temporal Approach," Working Papers in Economics 03/02, University of Waikato.
  5. Sylvia Sarantopoulou-Chiourea & George Skiadopoulos, 2015. "A New Predictor of Real Economic Activity: The S&P 500 Option Implied Risk Aversion," Working Papers 741, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  6. Clement, E. & Gourieroux, C. & Monfort, A., 2000. "Econometric specification of the risk neutral valuation model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 117-143.
  7. Ivanova, Vesela & Puigvert Gutiérrez, Josep Maria, 2014. "Interest rate forecasts, state price densities and risk premium from Euribor options," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 210-223.
  8. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June.
  9. Norrbin, Stefan, 2001. "What Have We Learned from Empirical Tests of the Monetary Transmission Effect," Working Paper Series 121, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  10. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2006_025 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Annalisa Molino & Carlo Sala, 2021. "Forecasting value at risk and conditional value at risk using option market data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(7), pages 1190-1213, November.
  12. Bronka Rzepkowski, 2002. "Heterogeneous expectations, currency options and the euro/dollar," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 147-157.
  13. Ruijun Bu & Fredj Jawadi & Yuyi Li, 2020. "A multifactor transformed diffusion model with applications to VIX and VIX futures," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 27-53, January.
  14. Bondarenko, Oleg, 2003. "Estimation of risk-neutral densities using positive convolution approximation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1-2), pages 85-112.
  15. Halil Ibrahim Aydin & Ahmet Degerli & Pinar Ozlu, 2010. "Recovering Risk-Neutral Densities from Exchange Rate Options: Evidence in Turkey (Kur Opsiyonlarindan Riske Duyarsiz Yogunluk Fonksiyonu Cikarimi: Turkiye Ornegi)," Working Papers 1003, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  16. Coroneo, Laura & Nyholm, Ken & Vidova-Koleva, Rositsa, 2011. "How arbitrage-free is the Nelson-Siegel model?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 393-407, June.
  17. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1998. "International Experiences With Different Monetary Policy Regimes," Seminar Papers 648, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  18. Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia, 2000. "Uncovering financial markets' beliefs about inflation targets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(5), pages 483-512.
  19. Gaspar, Vitor & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Sicilia, Jorge, 2001. "The ECB Monetary Policy Strategy and the Money Market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 325-342, October.
  20. Francis X. Diebold & Todd A. Gunther & Anthony S. Tay, "undated". "Evaluating Density Forecasts," CARESS Working Papres 97-18, University of Pennsylvania Center for Analytic Research and Economics in the Social Sciences.
  21. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2000. "The First Year of the Eurosystem: Inflation Targeting or Not?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 95-99, May.
  22. Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Magginas, Nicholas S., 2006. "Forward-looking information in VAR models and the price puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 1225-1234, September.
  23. Jondeau, Eric & Rockinger, Michael, 2000. "Reading the smile: the message conveyed by methods which infer risk neutral densities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 885-915, December.
  24. Favero, Carlo A. & Giavazzi, Francesco & Iacone, Fabrizio & Guido Tabellini, 2000. "Extracting information from asset prices: The methodology of EMU calculators," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(9), pages 1607-1632, October.
  25. Jiménez-Martín, Juan-Ángel & Cinca, Alfonso Novales, 2010. "State-uncertainty preferences and the risk premium in the exchange rate market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1043-1053, September.
  26. Sónia Costa & Ana Beatriz Galvão, 2007. "The Forward Premium of Euro Interest Rates," Working Papers w200702, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  27. Galvao, Ana Beatriz & Costa, Sonia, 2013. "Does the euro area forward rate provide accurate forecasts of the short rate?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 131-141.
  28. Boes, M.J., 2006. "Index options : Pricing, implied densities and returns," Other publications TiSEM e9ed8a9f-2472-430a-b666-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  29. Maria de Fátima Silva & José Monteiro, 2000. "Information on inflation expectations contained in the prices of financial assets," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  30. Muendler, Marc-Andreas, 2008. "Risk-neutral investors do not acquire information," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 156-161, September.
  31. Peter Hördahl & David Vestin, 2005. "Interpreting Implied Risk-Neutral Densities: The Role of Risk Premia," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 9(1), pages 97-137.
  32. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke & Nicole Glanemann, 2014. "The Signalling Channel of Central Bank Interventions: Modelling the Yen/US Dollar Exchange Rate," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 311-336, April.
  33. Manuel Ammann & Alexander Feser, 2019. "Robust Estimation of Risk-Neutral Moments," Working Papers on Finance 1902, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
  34. Thomas Busch, 2008. "Testing the martingale restriction for option implied densities," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 61-81, March.
  35. Kunio Okina & Shigenori Shiratsuka, 2004. "Policy Duration Effect under Zero Interest Rates: An Application of Wavelet Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 1138, CESifo.
  36. Fornari, F. & Violi, R., 1998. "The Probability Density Function of Interest Rates Implied in the Price of Options," Papers 339, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
  37. M. Isabel Campos & Zenón Jiménez-Ridruejo, "undated". "Were the Peseta Exchange Rate Crises Forecastable During Target Zone Period?," Working Papers on International Economics and Finance 00-07, FEDEA.
  38. Prasanna Gai & Sherry X. Wu, 2023. "On Market‐Friendly Central Bankers," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 99(325), pages 238-252, June.
  39. Manousopoulos, Polychronis & Michalopoulos, Michalis, 2009. "Comparison of non-linear optimization algorithms for yield curve estimation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 594-602, January.
  40. Vahamaa, Sami, 2005. "Option-implied asymmetries in bond market expectations around monetary policy actions of the ECB," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 23-38.
  41. Favero, Carlo A., 1999. "Financial markets' assessments of EMU : A comment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 271-280, December.
  42. Carvalho, Augusto & Guimaraes, Bernardo, 2018. "State-controlled companies and political risk: Evidence from the 2014 Brazilian election," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 66-78.
  43. Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2006. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 337-364, February.
  44. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, 2015. "Unsurprising Shocks: Information, Premia, and the Monetary Transmission," Discussion Papers 1613, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), revised Apr 2016.
  45. Bernardino Adão & Jorge Barros Luís & Nuno Cassola, 1998. "Information on expectations about the escudo convergence from the volatility implied in currency options," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  46. Pongsak Luangaram & Yuthana Sethapramote & Chutiorn Tontivanichnon, 2015. "Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy in Thailand," PIER Discussion Papers 3., Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Sep 2015.
  47. Morel, Christophe & Teïletche, Jérôme, 2008. "Do interventions in foreign exchange markets modify investors' expectations? The experience of Japan between 1992 and 2004," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 211-231, March.
  48. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2005_017 is not listed on IDEAS
  49. Lindbeck, Assar, 1998. "Swedish Lessons for Post-Socialist Countries," Working Paper Series 498, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
  50. repec:dau:papers:123456789/12956 is not listed on IDEAS
  51. Männistö, Hanna-Leena, 2005. "Forecasting with a forward-looking DGE model : combining long-run views of financial markes with macro forecasting," Research Discussion Papers 21/2005, Bank of Finland.
  52. Jens H. E. Christensen & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2009. "An arbitrage-free generalized Nelson--Siegel term structure model," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 12(3), pages 33-64, November.
  53. Pongsak Luangaram & Yuthana Sethapramote, 2016. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy Effectiveness: Evidence from Thailand," PIER Discussion Papers 20, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
  54. Favero, Carlo A., 2001. "Does Macroeconomics Help Us To Understand the Term Structure of Interest Rates?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2849, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  55. Ravenna, Federico & Seppälä, Juha, 2006. "Monetary policy and rejections of the expectations hypothesis," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 25/2006, Bank of Finland.
  56. Kenji Suganuma & Yoichi Ueno, 2018. "The Effects of the Bank of Japan's Corporate and Government Bond Purchases on Credit Spreads," IMES Discussion Paper Series 18-E-04, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  57. Hördahl, Peter, 2000. "Estimating the Implied Distribution of the Future Short-Term Interest Rate Using the Longstaff-Schwartz Model," Working Paper Series 111, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  58. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2000_022 is not listed on IDEAS
  59. Ben R. Craig & Ernst Glatzer & Joachim G. Keller & Martin Scheicher, 2003. "The forecasting performance of German stock option densities," Working Papers (Old Series) 0312, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  60. Pedro Serrano & Antoni Vaello‐Sebastià & M. Magdalena Vich Llompart, 2024. "International evidence of the forecasting ability of option‐implied distributions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(5), pages 1447-1464, August.
  61. Youngjoon Lee & Soohyon Kim & Ki Young Park, 2018. "Deciphering Monetary Policy Committee Minutes with Text Mining Approach: A Case of South Korea," Working papers 2018rwp-132, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
  62. Coutant, Sophie & Jondeau, Eric & Rockinger, Michael, 2001. "Reading PIBOR futures options smiles: The 1997 snap election," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(11), pages 1957-1987, November.
  63. Francis X. Diebold & Jinyong Hahn & Anthony S. Tay, 1998. "Real-Time Multivariate Density Forecast Evaluation and Calibration: Monitoring the Risk of High-Frequency Returns on Foreign Exchange," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 99-05, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  64. M. Isabel Campos & M. Araceli Rodríguez, "undated". "Crises and Credibility in a Target Zone: A Logit From a Markov-Switching Model," Working Papers on International Economics and Finance 00-05, FEDEA.
  65. Renato Faccini & Eirini Konstantinidi & George Skiadopoulos & Sylvia Sarantopoulou-Chiourea, 2019. "A New Predictor of U.S. Real Economic Activity: The S&P 500 Option Implied Risk Aversion," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(10), pages 4927-4949, October.
  66. Sharon Kozicki & P. A. Tinsley, 2012. "Effective Use of Survey Information in Estimating the Evolution of Expected Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(1), pages 145-169, February.
  67. Takami, Marcelo Yoshio & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2008. "Interest rate option pricing and volatility forecasting: An application to Brazil," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 755-763.
  68. Takamizawa, Hideyuki, 2022. "How arbitrage-free is the Nelson–Siegel model under stochastic volatility?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 205-223.
  69. Datta, Deepa Dhume & Londono, Juan M. & Ross, Landon J., 2017. "Generating options-implied probability densities to understand oil market events," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 440-457.
  70. H. Askari, 1999. "Twenty-five years of post-Bretton Woods experience: some lessons," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 52(208), pages 3-38.
  71. Jukka Sihvonen & Sami Vähämaa, 2014. "Forward‐Looking Monetary Policy Rules and Option‐Implied Interest Rate Expectations," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(4), pages 346-373, April.
  72. Josep Puigvert-Gutiérrez & Rupert Vincent-Humphreys, 2012. "A Quantitative Mirror on the Euribor Market Using Implied Probability Density Functions," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 2(1), pages 1-31, June.
  73. Assar Lindbeck, 2002. "Pensions and Contemporary Socioeconomic Change," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Pension Reform in Europe, pages 19-48, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  74. Ken Nyholm & Riccardo Rebonato, 2008. "Long-horizon yield curve projections: comparison of semi-parametric and parametric approaches," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(20), pages 1597-1611.
  75. Nikola Mirkov & Igor Pozdeev & Paul Söderlind, 2016. "Toward Removal of the Swiss Franc Cap: Market Expectations and Verbal Interventions," Working Papers 2016-10, Swiss National Bank.
  76. Ruijun Bu & Kaddour Hadri, 2005. "Estimating the Risk Neutral Probability Density Functions Natural Spline versus Hypergeometric Approach Using European Style Options," Working Papers 200510, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
  77. Koziol, Philipp, 2014. "Inflation and interest rate derivatives for FX risk management: Implications for exporting firms under real wealth," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 459-472.
  78. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Leitemo, Kai, 2009. "Identifying the interdependence between US monetary policy and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 275-282, March.
  79. Hentschel, Ludger & Smith, Clifford Jr., 1997. "Derivatives regulation: Implications for central banks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 305-346, October.
  80. Ravenna, Federico & Seppälä, Juha, 2006. "Monetary policy and rejections of the expectations hypothesis," Research Discussion Papers 25/2006, Bank of Finland.
  81. Sharon Kozicki & P. A. Tinsley, 2006. "Survey-Based Estimates of the Term Structure of Expected U.S. Inflation," Staff Working Papers 06-46, Bank of Canada.
  82. Pal, Sumantra, 2018. "How to intervene in foreign exchange market without buying/selling dollars?," EconStor Preprints 181880, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
  83. Pagliari, Maria Sole, 2024. "Does one (unconventional) size fit all? Effects of the ECB’s unconventional monetary policies on the euro area economies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
  84. Francis X. Diebold, 2004. "The Nobel Memorial Prize for Robert F. Engle," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 106(2), pages 165-185, June.
  85. Reid, Monique & Siklos, Pierre & Plessis, Stan Du, 2021. "What drives household inflation expectations in South Africa? Demographics and anchoring under inflation targeting," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(3).
  86. John H. Cochrane & Monika Piazzesi, 2005. "Bond Risk Premia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 138-160, March.
  87. Abel Rodr�guez & Enrique ter Horst, 2011. "Measuring expectations in options markets: an application to the S&P500 index," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(9), pages 1393-1405, July.
  88. Durré Alain, 2006. "The Liquidity Premium in the Money Market: A Comparison of the German Mark Period and the Euro Area," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 7(2), pages 163-187, May.
  89. Juan Manuel Julio, 2007. "Does The Spot Curve Contain Information On Future Monetary Policy In Colombia," Borradores de Economia 4289, Banco de la Republica.
  90. William R. Emmons & Aeimit K. Lakdawala & Christopher J. Neely, 2006. "What are the odds? option-based forecasts of FOMC target changes," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 88(Nov), pages 543-562.
  91. Durré, Alain & Evjen, Snorre & Pilegaard, Rasmus, 2003. "Estimating risk premia in money market rates," Working Paper Series 221, European Central Bank.
  92. Diana N. Weymark, 2001. "Inflation Targeting, Announcements, and Imperfect Credibility," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0124, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics, revised Apr 2002.
  93. Vladislav Kargin, 2003. "Consistent Estimation of Pricing Kernels from Noisy Price Data," Papers math/0310223, arXiv.org.
  94. Bernardino Adão & Jorge Barros Luís & Nuno Cassola, 1997. "Extracting information from options premia: the case of the return of the Italian lira to the ERM of the EMS," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  95. Hördahl, Peter, 2000. "Estimating the Implied Distribution of the Future Short-Term Interest Rate Using the Longstaff-Schwartz Model," Working Paper Series 111, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  96. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Leitemo, Kai, 2009. "Identifying the interdependence between US monetary policy and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 275-282, March.
  97. Anthony Tay & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2000. "Density Forecasting: A Survey," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0370, Econometric Society.
  98. Anari, Ali & Kolari, James, 2019. "The Fisher puzzle, real rate anomaly, and Wicksell effect," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 128-148.
  99. Gianni Amisano & Marco Tronzano, 2010. "Assessing European Central Bank'S Credibility During The First Years Of The Eurosystem: A Bayesian Empirical Investigation," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(5), pages 437-459, September.
  100. Shigenori Shiratsuka, 2024. "What Did the Yield Curve Control Policy Do?," Working Papers e208, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
  101. Söderström, Ulf, 1999. "Predicting monetary policy using federal funds future prices," Working Paper Series 85, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  102. René Lalonde, 1999. "The Information Content of Interest Rate Futures Options," Staff Working Papers 99-15, Bank of Canada.
  103. Martin Cincibuch, 2002. "Distributions Implied by Exchange Traded Options: A Ghost’s Smile?," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp200, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
  104. Monique Reid, 2009. "Isolating A Measure Of Inflation Expectations For The South African Financial Market Using Forward Interest Rates," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(3), pages 399-413, September.
  105. Juha Seppala & Federico Ravenna, 2005. "Monetary Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," 2005 Meeting Papers 804, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  106. Ahmadov, Vugar & Huseynov, Salman & Mammadov, Fuad & Karimli, Tural, 2015. "Brent nefti opsiyonlarından neytral riskli ehtimal paylanmasının əldə olunması [Extracting risk-neutral probability distribution from Brent oil options]," MPRA Paper 65704, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  107. Taylor, John B., 1999. "The robustness and efficiency of monetary policy rules as guidelines for interest rate setting by the European central bank," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 655-679, June.
  108. Joshua D. Angrist & Òscar Jordà & Guido M. Kuersteiner, 2018. "Semiparametric Estimates of Monetary Policy Effects: String Theory Revisited," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(3), pages 371-387, July.
  109. Jorge Barros Luís, 2000. "The Estimation of Risk Premium Implicit in Oil Prices," Working Papers w200002, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  110. Faust, Jon & Swanson, Eric T. & Wright, Jonathan H., 2004. "Identifying VARS based on high frequency futures data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1107-1131, September.
  111. Grith, Maria & Krätschmer, Volker, 2010. "Parametric estimation of risk neutral density functions," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2010-045, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
  112. Juan-Ángel Jiménez-Martín & Rodrigo Peruga Urrea, 2004. "Macroeconomic and policy uncertainty and Exchange rate risk Premium," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 0412, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
  113. Martin Hlusek, 2002. "Estimating Market Probabilities of Future Interest Rate Changes," Working Papers 2002/02, Czech National Bank.
  114. M. Isabel Campos & Zenón Jiménez-Ridruejo, 2000. "Were The Peseta Exchange Rate Crises Forecastable During Target Zone Period?," Working Papers 00-07, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
  115. Gabriel Pérez Quirós & Jorge Sicilia, 2002. "Is the European Central Bank (and the United States Federal Reserve) predictable?," Working Papers 0229, Banco de España.
  116. Maryam Movahedifar & Hossein Hassani & Masoud Yarmohammadi & Mahdi Kalantari & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "A robust approach for outlier imputation: Singular Spectrum Decomposition," Working Papers 202164, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  117. Lindbeck, A. & Wikstrom, S., 1999. "The ICT Revoluation in Consumer Product Markets," Papers 670, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  118. Shigenori Shiratsuka, 2021. "Monetary Policy Effectiveness under the Ultra-Low Interest Rate Environment: Evidence from Yield Curve Dynamics in Japan," Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series 2021-012, Institute for Economics Studies, Keio University.
  119. Seppala, Juha, 2004. "The term structure of real interest rates: theory and evidence from UK index-linked bonds," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1509-1549, October.
  120. Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris & Chang, Bo Young, 2013. "Forecasting with Option-Implied Information," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 581-656, Elsevier.
  121. John Hawkins, 2005. "Globalisation and monetary operations in emerging economies," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation and monetary policy in emerging markets, volume 23, pages 59-80, Bank for International Settlements.
  122. Christoffersen, Peter & Errunza, Vihang, 2000. "Towards a global financial architecture: capital mobility and risk management issues," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-20, May.
  123. Laurini, Márcio P., 2007. "Imposing No-Arbitrage Conditions In Implied Volatility Surfaces Using Constrained Smoothing Splines," Insper Working Papers wpe_89, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  124. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Favero, Carlo A., 1999. "Information from financial markets and VAR measures of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 825-837, April.
  125. Robert R Bliss & Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, 2000. "Testing the stability of implied probability density functions," Bank of England working papers 114, Bank of England.
  126. Leiss, Matthias & Nax, Heinrich H., 2018. "Option-implied objective measures of market risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 241-249.
  127. Alex Isakov & Petr Grishin & Oleg Gorlinsky, 2018. "Fear of Forward Guidance," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 77(4), pages 84-106, December.
  128. Jiří Málek & Jarmila Radová & Filip Štěrba, 2007. "Konstrukce výnosové křivky pomocí vládních dluhopisů v České republice [Vield curve construction using government bonds in the Czech republic]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2007(6), pages 792-808.
  129. Young Joon Lee & Soohyon Kim & Ki Young Park, 2019. "Deciphering Monetary Policy Board Minutes with Text Mining: The Case of South Korea," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 35, pages 471-511.
  130. Marian Micu, 2005. "Extracting expectations from currency option prices: a comparison of methods," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 226, Society for Computational Economics.
  131. Seppälä, Juha, 2000. "The term structure of real interest rates: Theory and evidence form UK index-linked bonds," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 22/2000, Bank of Finland.
  132. Bates, David S., 1999. "Financial markets' assessments of EMU," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 229-269, December.
  133. M. Isabel Campos & Zenon Jimenez-Ridruejo, 2003. "Were the peseta exchange rate crises forecastable during target zone period?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(9), pages 1087-1099.
  134. Taboga, Marco, 2016. "Option-implied probability distributions: How reliable? How jagged?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 453-469.
  135. Marie Briere, 2006. "Market Reactions to Central Bank Communication Policies :Reading Interest Rate Options Smiles," Working Papers CEB 38, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  136. Arindam Kundu & Sumit Kumar & Nutan Kumar Tomar, 2019. "Option Implied Risk-Neutral Density Estimation: A Robust and Flexible Method," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 54(2), pages 705-728, August.
  137. David Bolder & David Stréliski, 1999. "Yield Curve Modelling at the Bank of Canada," Technical Reports 84, Bank of Canada.
  138. Wilkens, Sascha & Roder, Klaus, 2006. "The informational content of option-implied distributions: Evidence from the Eurex index and interest rate futures options market," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 50-74, September.
  139. Seppälä, Juha, 2000. "The term structure of real interest rates : Theory and evidence form UK index-linked bonds," Research Discussion Papers 22/2000, Bank of Finland.
  140. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:47:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
  141. Paul Söderlind, 2010. "Reaction of Swiss Term Premia to Monetary Policy Surprises," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 146(I), pages 385-404, March.
  142. Céspedes, Luis Felipe & Jalil, Munir A., 2006. "Comments," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 123188, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  143. Gianluca Cassese, 2015. "Nonparametric Estimates of Option Prices Using Superhedging," Working Papers 293, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2015.
  144. Nimark, Kristoffer, 2008. "Monetary policy with signal extraction from the bond market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(8), pages 1389-1400, November.
  145. Pongsak Luangaram & Yuthana Sethapramote, 2016. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy Effectiveness: Evidence from Thailand," PIER Discussion Papers 20., Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Feb 2016.
  146. Vítor Gaspar & Gabriel Perez-Quirós & Jorge Sicilia, 2002. "The monetary policy decisions of the ECB and the money market," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Market functioning and central bank policy, volume 12, pages 402-411, Bank for International Settlements.
  147. repec:wyi:journl:002064 is not listed on IDEAS
  148. Alexis Derviz, 2002. "The uncovered parity properties of the czech koruna," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2002(1), pages 17-37.
  149. Martina Makarieva, 2021. "Yield curve modelling and forecasting in an undeveloped financial market: The case of Bulgaria," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 61-83,84-10.
  150. Jondeau, E. & Rockinger, M., 1998. "Reading the Smile: The Message Conveyed by Methods Which Infer Risk Neutral," Working papers 47, Banque de France.
  151. Baumeister, Christiane, 2021. "Measuring Market Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 16520, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  152. Nymand-Andersen, Per, 2018. "Yield curve modelling and a conceptual framework for estimating yield curves: evidence from the European Central Bank’s yield curves," Statistics Paper Series 27, European Central Bank.
  153. Yongmiao Hong & Haitao Li & Feng Zhao, 2013. "Can the Random Walk Model be Beaten in Out-of-Sample Density Forecasts? Evidence from Intraday Forei," Working Papers 2013-10-14, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
  154. Shigenori SHIRATSUKA, 2024. "What Does the Yield Curve Control Policy Do?," Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series 2024-002, Institute for Economics Studies, Keio University.
  155. Ranik Raaen Wahlstrøm & Florentina Paraschiv & Michael Schürle, 2022. "A Comparative Analysis of Parsimonious Yield Curve Models with Focus on the Nelson-Siegel, Svensson and Bliss Versions," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(3), pages 967-1004, March.
  156. Berlemann, Michael, 2001. "Forecasting inflation via electronic markets: Results from a prototype market," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 06/01, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
  157. Jürgen Von Hagen & Ingo Fender, 1998. "Central Bank Policy in a More Perfect Financial System," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 493-532, January.
  158. Pakasa Bary & Yoga Affandi & Berry A. Harahap & Fenty T. Suryani, 2020. "Natural Yield Curve: The Case of Indonesia," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 14(2), June.
  159. Katarzyna Łasak & Carlos Velasco, 2015. "Fractional Cointegration Rank Estimation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 241-254, April.
  160. Alexandros Kostakis & Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou & George Skiadopoulos, 2011. "Market Timing with Option-Implied Distributions: A Forward-Looking Approach," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(7), pages 1231-1249, July.
  161. repec:bla:germec:v:7:y:2006:i::p:163-187 is not listed on IDEAS
  162. Fabrizio Iacone, 2009. "A Semiparametric Analysis of the Term Structure of the US Interest Rates," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(4), pages 475-490, August.
  163. Manuel Ammann & Alexander Feser, 2019. "Robust estimation of risk‐neutral moments," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(9), pages 1137-1166, September.
  164. Monique Reid & Pierre Siklos, 2021. "The Bureau for Economic Research's inflation expectations surveys: Know your data," Working Papers 10/2021, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
  165. Audrino, Francesco & Offner, Eric A., 2024. "The impact of macroeconomic news sentiment on interest rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
  166. Jason Brown & Nida Çakır Melek & Johannes Matschke & Sai Sattiraju, 2023. "The Missing Tail Risk in Option Prices," Research Working Paper RWP 23-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  167. Andersson, Magnus & Lomakka, Magnus, 2005. "Evaluating implied RNDs by some new confidence interval estimation techniques," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1535-1557, June.
  168. Magill, Michael & Quinzii, Martine, 2014. "Anchoring expectations of inflation," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 86-105.
  169. Campos, M. Isabel & Herrera, Julio & Jimenez-Ridruejo, Zenon, 1999. "Censured Exchange Rates in a Discrete Time Target Zones Model: The Spanish Peseta/Deutsche Mark Case," ERSA conference papers ersa99pa183, European Regional Science Association.
  170. Ye, Xiaoxia, 2012. "Market expectations of the short rate and the term structure of interest rates: a new perspective from the classic model," MPRA Paper 41093, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  171. C. H. Hui & C. F. Lo & V. Yeung & L. Fung, 2008. "Valuing foreign currency options with a mean-reverting process: a study of Hong Kong dollar," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 118-134.
  172. Andrea Carriero, 2007. "A Bayesian Framework for the Expectations Hypothesis. How to Extract Additional Information from the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers 591, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  173. Pongsak Luangaram & Yuthana Sethapramote & Chutiorn Tontivanichanon, 2015. "Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy in Thailand," PIER Discussion Papers 3, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
  174. George M. von Furstenberg & Michael T. Gapen, 1998. "Conditional Indexation Bias in Yields Reported on Inflation-Indexed Securities with Special Reference to UDIBONOS and TIPS," Economía Mexicana NUEVA ÉPOCA, CIDE, División de Economía, vol. 0(2), pages 149-188, July-Dece.
  175. Dupont, Dominique Y., 2001. "Extracting Risk-Neutral Probability Distributions from Option Prices Using Trading Volume as a Filter," Economics Series 104, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  176. Andrea Carriero, 2007. "A Bayesian Framework for the Expectations Hypothesis. How to Extract Additional Information from the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers 591, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  177. Persson, Mats, 2000. "Five Fallacies in the Social Security Debate," Seminar Papers 686, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  178. Dobromł Serwa, 2006. "Do emerging financial markets react to monetary policy announcements? Evidence from Poland," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(7), pages 513-523.
  179. Abel Rodriguez & Enrique ter Horst, 2008. "Measuring expectations in options markets: An application to the SP500 index," Papers 0901.0033, arXiv.org.
  180. Amisano, Gianni & Giacomini, Raffaella, 2007. "Comparing Density Forecasts via Weighted Likelihood Ratio Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 177-190, April.
  181. Edward J. Green, 2001. "Central banking and the economics of information," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 25(Q II), pages 28-37.
  182. Egorov, Alexei V. & Hong, Yongmiao & Li, Haitao, 2006. "Validating forecasts of the joint probability density of bond yields: Can affine models beat random walk?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 255-284.
  183. Bronka Rzepkowski, 2001. "Heterogeneous Expectations, Currency Options and the Euro / Dollar Exchange Rate," Working Papers 2001-03, CEPII research center.
  184. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2005_021 is not listed on IDEAS
  185. Eric Jondeau & Franck Sédillot, 1999. "Forecasting French and German long-term rates using a rational expectations model," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 135(3), pages 413-436, September.
  186. Lindbeck, Assar, 2001. "Changing Tides For The Welfare State," Seminar Papers 694, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  187. Leo Krippner, 2005. "An Intertemporally-Consistent and Arbitrage-Free Version of the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models," Working Papers in Economics 05/01, University of Waikato.
  188. Nicole El Karoui & Stéphane Loisel & Jean-Luc Prigent & Julien Vedani, 2015. "Market inconsistencies of the market-consistent European life insurance economic valuations: pitfalls and practical solutions," Working Papers hal-01242023, HAL.
  189. Buschena, David E. & Ziegler, Lee, 1999. "Reliability Of Options Markets For Crop Revenue Insurance Rating," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 24(2), pages 1-26, December.
  190. Leo Krippner, 2003. "Modelling the Yield Curve with Orthonomalised Laguerre Polynomials: An Intertemporally Consistent Approach with an Economic Interpretation," Working Papers in Economics 03/01, University of Waikato.
  191. Bernardino Adao & Jorge Barros Luis, 2000. "Interest rate spreads implicit in options: Spain and Italy against Germany," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 155-161.
  192. Leo Krippner, 2005. "Investigating the Relationships between the Yield Curve, Output and Inflation using an Arbitrage-Free Version of the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models," Working Papers in Economics 05/02, University of Waikato.
  193. Männistö, Hanna-Leena, 2005. "Forecasting with a forward-looking DGE model: combining long-run views of financial markes with macro forecasting," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 21/2005, Bank of Finland.
  194. Luiz Vitiello & Ser-Huang Poon, 2014. "Non-monotonic pricing kernel and an extended class of mixture of distributions for option pricing," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 241-259, July.
  195. Bliss, Robert R. & Panigirtzoglou, Nikolaos, 2002. "Testing the stability of implied probability density functions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 381-422, March.
  196. Hiroyuki Kawakatsu, 2020. "Recovering Yield Curves from Dynamic Term Structure Models with Time-Varying Factors," Stats, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-46, August.
  197. Schmitz, Jochen & Ledebur, Oliver von, 2012. "The 2007 emerging corn price surge revisited – Was it expected or a large surprise?," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 123971, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  198. Nicole El Karoui & Stéphane Loisel & Jean-Luc Prigent & Julien Vedani, 2017. "Market inconsistencies of the market-consistent European life insurance economic valuations: pitfalls and practical solutions," Post-Print hal-01242023, HAL.
  199. Marcello Pericoli, 2005. "Can option smiles forecast changes in interest rates? An application to the US, the UK and the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 545, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  200. Vijay A Murik, 2013. "Measuring monetary policy expectations," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 38(1), pages 49-65, April.
  201. Bronka Rzepkowski, 2000. "The Expectations of Hong Kong Dollar Devaluation and Their Determinants," Working Papers 2000-04, CEPII research center.
  202. Nagano, Teppei & Baba, Naohiko, 2008. "Extracting market expectations from yield curves augmented by money market interest rates: the case of Japan," Working Paper Series 980, European Central Bank.
  203. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2010-045 is not listed on IDEAS
  204. Panigirtzoglou, Nikolaos & Skiadopoulos, George, 2004. "A new approach to modeling the dynamics of implied distributions: Theory and evidence from the S&P 500 options," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1499-1520, July.
  205. David S. Bates, 1999. "Financial Markets' Assessment of EMU," NBER Working Papers 6874, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  206. Okina, Kunio & Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 2004. "Policy commitment and expectation formation: Japan's experience under zero interest rates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 75-100, March.
IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.