IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/snb/snbwpa/2016-10.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Toward Removal of the Swiss Franc Cap: Market Expectations and Verbal Interventions

Author

Listed:
  • Nikola Mirkov
  • Igor Pozdeev
  • Paul Söderlind

Abstract

We ask whether the markets expected the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to discontinue the 1.20 cap on the Swiss franc against the euro in January 2015. In the runup to the SNB announcement, neither options on the euro/Swiss franc nor FX liquidity indicated a significant shift in market expectations. Furthermore, we find that the SNB's verbal interventions during the period of cap enforcement increased the credibility of the cap by reducing the uncertainty of future euro/Swiss franc rate. We conclude that the markets did not anticipate the discontinuation of the policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikola Mirkov & Igor Pozdeev & Paul Söderlind, 2016. "Toward Removal of the Swiss Franc Cap: Market Expectations and Verbal Interventions," Working Papers 2016-10, Swiss National Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2016-10
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2016/working_paper_2016_10
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Beine, Michel & Janssen, Gust & Lecourt, Christelle, 2009. "Should central bankers talk to the foreign exchange markets?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 776-803, September.
    2. Markus Hertrich & Heinz Zimmermann, 2017. "On the Credibility of the Euro/Swiss Franc Floor: A Financial Market Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(2-3), pages 567-578, March.
    3. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2008. "Communication and exchange rate policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1651-1672, December.
    4. Michael Hanke & Rolf Poulsen & Alex Weissensteiner, 2015. "Where Would the EUR/CHF Exchange Rate be Without the SNB's Minimum Exchange Rate Policy?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(12), pages 1103-1116, December.
    5. Carr, Peter & Wu, Liuren, 2007. "Stochastic skew in currency options," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 213-247, October.
    6. Soderlind, Paul & Svensson, Lars, 1997. "New techniques to extract market expectations from financial instruments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 383-429, October.
    7. Burkhard, Lukas & Fischer, Andreas M., 2009. "Communicating policy options at the zero bound," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 742-754, September.
    8. Urban J. Jermann, 2017. "Financial Markets' Views about the Euro–Swiss Franc Floor," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(2-3), pages 553-565, March.
    9. Jansen, David-Jan & De Haan, Jakob, 2005. "Talking heads: the effects of ECB statements on the euro-dollar exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 343-361, March.
    10. Robert J. Ritchey, 1990. "Call Option Valuation For Discrete Normal Mixtures," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 13(4), pages 285-296, December.
    11. Ritchey, Robert J, 1990. "Call Option Valuation for Discrete Normal Mixtures," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 13(4), pages 285-296, Winter.
    12. Unknown, 2005. "Forward," 2005 Conference: Slovenia in the EU - Challenges for Agriculture, Food Science and Rural Affairs, November 10-11, 2005, Moravske Toplice, Slovenia 183804, Slovenian Association of Agricultural Economists (DAES).
    13. Brown, Stephen J. & Warner, Jerold B., 1980. "Measuring security price performance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 205-258, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Berhold, Kerstin & Stadtmann, Georg, 2017. "Who put the holes in the Swiss cheese? Currency crisis under appreciation pressure," Discussion Papers 391, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
    2. Buchholz, Manuel & von Schweinitz, Gregor & Tonzer, Lena, 2018. "Did the Swiss exchange rate shock shock the market?," IWH Discussion Papers 9/2018, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    3. Funke, Michael & Loermann, Julius & Tsang, Andrew, 2017. "The information content in the offshore Renminbi foreign-exchange option market: Analytics and implied USD/CNH densities," BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2017, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    4. Alain Chaboud & Dagfinn Rime & Vladyslav Sushko, 2023. "The foreign exchange market," Chapters, in: Refet S. Gürkaynak & Jonathan H. Wright (ed.), Research Handbook of Financial Markets, chapter 12, pages 253-275, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Matthias EFING & Rüdiger FAHLENBRACH & Christoph HERPFER & Philipp KRÜGER, 2015. "How Do Investors and Firms React to an Unexpected Currency Appreciation Shock?," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 15-65, Swiss Finance Institute, revised Jan 2016.
    6. Ranaldo, Angelo & de Magistris, Paolo Santucci, 2022. "Liquidity in the global currency market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 859-883.
    7. Breedon, Francis & Chen, Louisa & Ranaldo, Angelo & Vause, Nicholas, 2023. "Judgment day: Algorithmic trading around the Swiss franc cap removal," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    8. Michael Funke & Julius Loermann & Richhild Moessner, 2017. "The discontinuation of the EUR/CHF minimum exchange rate in January 2015: was it expected?," BIS Working Papers 652, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Alex Cukierman, 2019. "Forex Intervention and Reserve Management in Switzerland and Israel since the Financial Crisis: Comparison and Policy Lessons," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 403-424, April.
    10. repec:zbw:bofitp:2017_015 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Gregor von Schweinitz & Lena Tonzer & Manuel Buchholz, 2021. "Monetary policy through exchange rate pegs: The removal of the Swiss franc‐Euro floor and stock price reactions," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 1382-1406, December.
    12. Gregor Bäurle & Daniel Kaufmann, 2018. "Measuring Exchange Rate, Price, and Output Dynamics at the Effective Lower Bound," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 80(6), pages 1243-1266, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mirkov, Nikola & Pozdeev, Igor & Söderlind, Paul, 2019. "Verbal interventions and exchange rate policies: The case of Swiss franc cap," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 42-54.
    2. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    3. Parra-Polanía, Julián & Sánchez-Jabba, Andrés & Sarmiento, Miguel, 2024. "Are FX communications effective? Evidence from emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    4. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    5. Boes, M.J., 2006. "Index options : Pricing, implied densities and returns," Other publications TiSEM e9ed8a9f-2472-430a-b666-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris & Chang, Bo Young, 2013. "Forecasting with Option-Implied Information," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 581-656, Elsevier.
    7. Pierre L. Siklos & Martin T. Bohl, 2008. "Policy words and policy deeds: the ECB and the euro," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(3), pages 247-265.
    8. Yang, Yan-Hong & Shao, Ying-Hui & Shao, Hao-Lin & Stanley, H. Eugene, 2019. "Revisiting the weak-form efficiency of the EUR/CHF exchange rate market: Evidence from episodes of different Swiss franc regimes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 523(C), pages 734-746.
    9. Paul Söderlind, 2010. "Reaction of Swiss Term Premia to Monetary Policy Surprises," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 146(I), pages 385-404, March.
    10. Kathryn M. E. Dominguez & Freyan Panthaki, 2007. "The influence of actual and unrequited interventions," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 171-200.
    11. Iain J. Clark & Saeed Amen, 2017. "Implied Distributions from GBPUSD Risk-Reversals and Implication for Brexit Scenarios," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-17, July.
    12. Dewachter, Hans & Erdemlioglu, Deniz & Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Lecourt, Christelle, 2014. "The intra-day impact of communication on euro-dollar volatility and jumps," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 131-154.
    13. Gianluca Cassese, 2015. "Nonparametric Estimates of Option Prices Using Superhedging," Working Papers 293, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2015.
    14. Li, Xiaoping & Wang, Nan & Duan, Jihong & Shi, Wenming, 2024. "Exchange rate stability and expectation management under heterogeneous expectations," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).
    15. Hu, May & Li, Yunfeng & Yang, Jingjing & Chao, Chi-Chur, 2016. "Actual intervention and verbal intervention in the Chinese RMB exchange rate," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 499-508.
    16. Beine, Michel & Bernal, Oscar & Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Lecourt, Christelle, 2009. "Intervention policy of the BoJ: A unified approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 904-913, May.
    17. Rasmus Fatum, 2009. "Official Japanese Intervention in the JPY/USD Exchange Rate Market: Is It Effective, and through Which Channel Does It Work?," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 27(1), pages 75-98, November.
    18. Vahamaa, Sami, 2005. "Option-implied asymmetries in bond market expectations around monetary policy actions of the ECB," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 23-38.
    19. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2009. "How successful is the G7 in managing exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 78-88, September.
    20. repec:pri:cepsud:161blinder is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Luiz Vitiello & Ser-Huang Poon, 2014. "Non-monotonic pricing kernel and an extended class of mixture of distributions for option pricing," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 241-259, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Swiss franc; implied volatilities; market expectations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2016-10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Enzo Rossi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/snbgvch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.