IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_1138.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Policy Duration Effect under Zero Interest Rates: An Application of Wavelet Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Kunio Okina
  • Shigenori Shiratsuka

Abstract

A major feature of recent monetary policy in Japan has been heavy reliance on the so-called policy duration effect. This policy employs a commitment to compensate for the central bank’s inability to lower the interest rate below zero by altering the anticipated course of monetary policy actions. This paper analyzes the behavior of the yield curve and examines the effectiveness and limitations of monetary policy commitment under zero interest rates with four indicators for policy duration effect. Specifically, we extend our previous study (Okina and Shiratsuka (2003)) by applying wavelet analysis to indicators for policy duration effect. As in the previous study, the policy duration effect was found to be highly effective in stabilizing market expectations for the path of short-term interest rates, thereby reducing longer-term interest rates and flattening the yield curve. The policy duration effect, however, failed to reverse deflationary expectations in financial markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Kunio Okina & Shigenori Shiratsuka, 2004. "Policy Duration Effect under Zero Interest Rates: An Application of Wavelet Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 1138, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1138
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp1138.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christoph Schleicher, 2002. "An Introduction to Wavelets for Economists," Staff Working Papers 02-3, Bank of Canada.
    2. Soderlind, Paul & Svensson, Lars, 1997. "New techniques to extract market expectations from financial instruments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 383-429, October.
    3. Marvin Goodfriend, 1998. "Using the term structure of interest rates for monetary policy," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 13-30.
    4. Fujiki, Hiroshi & Okina, Kunio & Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 2001. "Monetary Policy under Zero Interest Rate: Viewpoints of Central Bank Economists," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 19(1), pages 89-130, February.
    5. David L. Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 2000. "Three lessons for monetary policy in a low-inflation era," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 936-978.
    6. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-489, October.
    7. Tomohiro Sugo & Yuki Teranishi, 2008. "The Zero Interest Rate Policy," IMES Discussion Paper Series 08-E-20, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    8. Okina, Kunio & Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 2004. "Policy commitment and expectation formation: Japan's experience under zero interest rates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 75-100, March.
    9. Takeshi Kimura & Hiroshi Kobayashi & Jun Muranaga & Hiroshi Ugai, 2003. "The effect of the increase in the monetary base of Japan's economy at zero interest rates: an empirical analysis," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 276-312, Bank for International Settlements.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hiroshi Ugai, 2007. "Effects of the Quantitative Easing Policy: A Survey of Empirical Analyses," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 25(1), pages 1-48, March.
    2. Okina, Kunio & Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 2004. "Policy commitment and expectation formation: Japan's experience under zero interest rates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 75-100, March.
    3. Hiroshi Ugai, 2006. "Effects of the Quantitative Easing Policy: A Survey of Empirical Analyses," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 06-E-10, Bank of Japan.
    4. Jouchi Nakajima & Shigenori Shiratsuka & Yuki Teranishi, 2010. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Commitment: Evidence from Time- varying Parameter VAR Analysis," IMES Discussion Paper Series 10-E-06, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    5. Shigenori Shiratsuka, 2021. "Monetary Policy Effectiveness under the Ultra-Low Interest Rate Environment: Evidence from Yield Curve Dynamics in Japan," Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series 2021-012, Institute for Economics Studies, Keio University.
    6. Peter J. Morgan, 2012. "The Role and Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy," Chapters, in: Masahiro Kawai & Peter J. Morgan & Shinji Takagi (ed.), Monetary and Currency Policy Management in Asia, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Nagayasu, Jun, 2004. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Monetary Policy during a Zero Interest Rate Period," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 22(2), pages 19-43, May.
    8. Shigenori Shiratsuka, 2010. "Size and Composition of the Central Bank Balance Sheet: Revisiting Japan's Experience of the Quantitative Easing Policy," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 28, pages 79-106, November.
    9. Fujiwara, Ippei & Hara, Naoko & Hirose, Yasuo & Teranishi, Yuki, 2005. "The Japanese Economic Model (JEM)," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 23(2), pages 61-142, May.
    10. Takatoshi Ito & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2006. "Two Decades of Japanese Monetary Policy and the Deflation Problem," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy with Very Low Inflation in the Pacific Rim, pages 131-1997, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Claudio Morana, 2005. "The Japanese deflation: has it had real effects? Could it have been avoided?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(12), pages 1337-1352.
    12. Nobuyuki Oda & Takashi Nagahata, 2005. "On the Function of the Zero Interest Rate Commitment: Monetary Policy Rules in the Presence of the Zero Lower Bound on Interest Rates," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 05-E-1, Bank of Japan.
    13. Oda, Nobuyuki & Nagahata, Takashi, 2008. "On the function of the zero interest rate commitment: Monetary policy rules in the presence of the zero lower bound on interest rates," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 34-67, March.
    14. Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent R. Reinhart & Brian P. Sack, 2004. "Monetary Policy Alternatives at the Zero Bound: An Empirical Assessment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(2), pages 1-100.
    15. Pongsak Luangaram & Yuthana Sethapramote, 2016. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy Effectiveness: Evidence from Thailand," PIER Discussion Papers 20, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    16. Pagliari, Maria Sole, 2024. "Does one (unconventional) size fit all? Effects of the ECB’s unconventional monetary policies on the euro area economies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    17. Favero, Carlo A. & Giavazzi, Francesco & Iacone, Fabrizio & Guido Tabellini, 2000. "Extracting information from asset prices: The methodology of EMU calculators," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(9), pages 1607-1632, October.
    18. Magill, Michael & Quinzii, Martine, 2014. "Anchoring expectations of inflation," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 86-105.
    19. Yoichi Arai & Takeo Hoshi, 2004. "Monetary Policy in the Great Recession," Discussion papers 04024, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    20. Gauti B. Eggertsson, 2013. "Fiscal Multipliers and Policy Coordination," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Jordi Galí (ed.),Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, edition 1, volume 17, chapter 6, pages 175-234, Central Bank of Chile.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1138. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.