IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/mateco/v50y2014icp86-105.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Anchoring expectations of inflation

Author

Listed:
  • Magill, Michael
  • Quinzii, Martine

Abstract

This paper studies the existence and uniqueness of equilibrium in a monetary model in which the fiscal policy is Ricardian. The innovation of the paper is to model agents’ expectations as endogenous probabilities which are determined in equilibrium. Since economies with a Ricardian fiscal policy typically exhibit indeterminacy of equilibrium when the monetary policy instrument is the short-term interest rate, we augment the instruments of monetary policy to the interest rates on a family of bonds of maturities 1,…,T and derive conditions under which this ensures uniqueness of equilibrium.

Suggested Citation

  • Magill, Michael & Quinzii, Martine, 2014. "Anchoring expectations of inflation," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 86-105.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:mateco:v:50:y:2014:i:c:p:86-105
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmateco.2013.06.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304406813000517
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jmateco.2013.06.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Johannes Wieland, 2012. "The Optimal Inflation Rate in New Keynesian Models: Should Central Banks Raise Their Inflation Targets in Light of the Zero Lower Bound?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 79(4), pages 1371-1406.
    2. Magill, Michael & Quinzii, Martine, 1994. "Infinite Horizon Incomplete Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(4), pages 853-880, July.
    3. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2002. "Avoiding Liquidity Traps," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(3), pages 535-563, June.
    4. Woodford, Michael, 1994. "Monetary Policy and Price Level Determinacy in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 4(3), pages 345-380.
    5. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Determinacy and Identification with Taylor Rules," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(3), pages 565-615.
    6. Balasko, Yves & Cass, David, 1989. "The Structure of Financial Equilibrium with Exogenous Yields: The Case of Incomplete Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(1), pages 135-162, January.
    7. Pradeep Dubey & John Geanakoplos, 2003. "Inside and outside fiat money, gains to trade, and IS-LM," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 21(2), pages 347-397, March.
    8. Sargent, Thomas J, 1982. "Beyond Demand and Supply Curves in Macroeconomics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(2), pages 382-389, May.
    9. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Johannes Wieland, 2012. "The Optimal Inflation Rate in New Keynesian Models: Should Central Banks Raise Their Inflation Targets in Light of the Zero Lower Bound?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 79(4), pages 1371-1406.
    10. Magill, M. & Quinzii, M., 1992. "Real effects of money in general equilibrium," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 301-342.
    11. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 139-235.
    12. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2000. "Price level determinacy and monetary policy under a balanced-budget requirement," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 211-246, February.
    13. Pradeep Dubey & John Geanakoplos, 2006. "Determinacy with nominal assets and outside money," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 27(1), pages 79-106, January.
    14. Soderlind, Paul & Svensson, Lars, 1997. "New techniques to extract market expectations from financial instruments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 383-429, October.
    15. Gaetano Bloise & Jacques H. Drèze & Herakles M. Polemarchakis, 2006. "Monetary Equilibria over an Infinite Horizon," Studies in Economic Theory, in: Christian Schultz & Karl Vind (ed.), Institutions, Equilibria and Efficiency, chapter 5, pages 69-93, Springer.
    16. Adão, Bernardino & Correia, Isabel & Teles, Pedro, 2014. "Short and long interest rate targets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 95-107.
    17. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    18. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Stokey, Nancy L, 1987. "Money and Interest in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 491-513, May.
    19. Michael Magill & Martine Quinzii, 2009. "The probability approach to general equilibrium with production," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 39(1), pages 1-41, April.
    20. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Jess Benhabib & Martin Uribe, 2001. "Monetary Policy and Multiple Equilibria," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 167-186, March.
    21. McMahon, Michael & Peiris, Udara & Polemarchakis, Herakles, 2015. "Perils of quantitative easing," CRETA Online Discussion Paper Series 04, Centre for Research in Economic Theory and its Applications CRETA.
    22. Jacques H. Drèze & Heracles M. Polemarchakis, 2001. "Intertemporal General Equilibrium and Monetary Theory," International Economic Association Series, in: Axel Leijonhufvud (ed.), Monetary Theory as a Basis for Monetary Policy, chapter 2, pages 33-71, Palgrave Macmillan.
    23. Geanakoplos, John & Mas-Colell, Andreu, 1989. "Real indeterminacy with financial assets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 22-38, February.
    24. Goodfriend, Marvin, 1991. "Interest rates and the conduct of monetary policy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 7-30, January.
    25. Debreu, Gerard, 1970. "Economies with a Finite Set of Equilibria," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 38(3), pages 387-392, May.
    26. Marvin Goodfriend, 1998. "Using the term structure of interest rates for monetary policy," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 13-30.
    27. John C. Williams, 2009. "Heeding Daedalus: Optimal Inflation and the Zero Lower Bound," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(2 (Fall)), pages 1-49.
    28. Axel Leijonhufvud (ed.), 2001. "Monetary Theory as a Basis for Monetary Policy," International Economic Association Series, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-4039-3961-6, December.
    29. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-254, April.
    30. Carl E. Walsh, 2009. "Inflation Targeting: What Have We Learned?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), pages 195-233, August.
    31. David Cass, 1989. "Sunspots and Incomplete Financial Markets: The Leading Example," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: George R. Feiwel (ed.), The Economics of Imperfect Competition and Employment, chapter 25, pages 677-693, Palgrave Macmillan.
    32. Tomoyuki Nakajima & Herakles Polemarchakis, 2005. "Money and Prices Under Uncertainty," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(1), pages 223-246.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Adão, Bernardino & Correia, Isabel & Teles, Pedro, 2014. "Short and long interest rate targets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 95-107.
    2. McMahon, Michael & Peiris, M. Udara & Polemarchakis, Herakles, 2018. "Perils of unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 92-114.
    3. Li Lin & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos & Alexandros P. Vardoulakis, 2016. "On default and uniqueness of monetary equilibria," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 62(1), pages 245-264, June.
    4. Hoelle, Matthew, 2015. "On the Pareto efficiency of term structure targeting policies," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 62-69.
    5. Matthew Hoelle, 2018. "Stationary inflation and Pareto efficiency with incomplete markets and a large open economy," Economic Theory Bulletin, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 6(1), pages 115-128, April.
    6. Keith Anderson & Tomasz Zastawniak, 2017. "Glamour, value and anchoring on the changing /," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(5), pages 375-406, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michael Magill & Martine Quinzii, 2014. "Term structure and forward guidance as instruments of monetary policy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 56(1), pages 1-32, May.
    2. Li Lin & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos & Alexandros P. Vardoulakis, 2016. "On default and uniqueness of monetary equilibria," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 62(1), pages 245-264, June.
    3. McMahon, Michael & Peiris, M. Udara & Polemarchakis, Herakles, 2018. "Perils of unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 92-114.
    4. McMahon, Michael & Peiris, Udara & Polemarchakis, Herakles, 2015. "Perils of quantitative easing," CRETA Online Discussion Paper Series 04, Centre for Research in Economic Theory and its Applications CRETA.
    5. BLOISE, Gaetano & DRÈZE, Jacques & POLEMARCHAKIS, Heracles, 2002. "Money and indeterminacy over an infinite horizon," CORE Discussion Papers 2002021, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    6. Bassetto, Marco & Phelan, Christopher, 2015. "Speculative runs on interest rate pegs," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 99-114.
    7. Tomoyuki Nakajima & Herakles Polemarchakis, 2002. "Monetary Equilibria with Monopolistic Competition and Sticky Prices," Working Papers 2002-25, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    8. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2017. "Escaping the Great Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(4), pages 1030-1058, April.
    9. Hagedorn, Marcus, 2018. "Prices and Inflation when Government Bonds are Net Wealth," CEPR Discussion Papers 12769, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Tom D. Holden, 2023. "Existence and Uniqueness of Solutions to Dynamic Models with Occasionally Binding Constraints," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(6), pages 1481-1499, November.
    11. Bai, Jinhui H. & Schwarz, Ingolf, 2006. "Monetary equilibria in a cash-in-advance economy with incomplete financial markets," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(4-5), pages 422-451, August.
    12. Bianchi, Francesco & Melosi, Leonardo, 2019. "The dire effects of the lack of monetary and fiscal coordination," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 1-22.
    13. Herakles Polemarchakis, 2015. "Markets and Efficiency," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 66(2), pages 150-166, June.
    14. Peiris, M.Udara & Polemarchakis, Herakles, 2015. "Quantitative Easing in an Open Economy : Prices, Exchange Rates and Risk Premia," CRETA Online Discussion Paper Series 09, Centre for Research in Economic Theory and its Applications CRETA.
    15. Philip Arestis & Alexander Mihailov, 2011. "Classifying Monetary Economics: Fields And Methods From Past To Future," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 769-800, September.
    16. Kokonas, Nikolaos, 2016. "Nominal rigidities equilibria in a non-Ricardian economy," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 108-119.
    17. Alstadheim Ragna & Henderson Dale W., 2006. "Price-Level Determinacy, Lower Bounds on the Nominal Interest Rate, and Liquidity Traps," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-27, November.
    18. Lilia Maliar & John B. Taylor, 2019. "Forward Guidance: Is It Useful Away from the Lower Bound?," NBER Working Papers 26053, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Taylor, John, 2018. "Taylor Rules and Forward Guidance: A Rule is not a Path," CEPR Discussion Papers 13383, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Johannes Wieland, 2012. "The Optimal Inflation Rate in New Keynesian Models: Should Central Banks Raise Their Inflation Targets in Light of the Zero Lower Bound?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 79(4), pages 1371-1406.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:mateco:v:50:y:2014:i:c:p:86-105. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jmateco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.