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Home price expectations and behavior: evidence from a randomized information experiment

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  1. Armantier, Olivier & Foncel, Jérôme & Treich, Nicolas, 2023. "Insurance and portfolio decisions: Two sides of the same coin?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(3), pages 201-219.
  2. Qian, Wei, 2023. "House price expectations and household consumption," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
  3. Theresa Kuchler & Monika Piazzesi & Johannes Stroebel, 2022. "Housing Market Expectations," CESifo Working Paper Series 9665, CESifo.
  4. Christopher Roth & Sonja Settele & Johannes Wohlfart, 2022. "Risk Exposure and Acquisition of Macroeconomic Information," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 34-53, March.
  5. Sören Harrs & Lara Marie Müller & Bettina Rockenbach, 2021. "How Optimistic and Pessimistic Narratives about COVID-19 Impact Economic Behavior," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 091, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
  6. Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2020. "How Do Expectations about the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 731-748, October.
  7. Ganguli, Ina & Gaule, Patrick & Čugalj, Danijela Vuletić, 2020. "Biased Beliefs and Entry into Scientific Careers," IZA Discussion Papers 13475, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  8. Knut Are Aastveit & André K. Anundsen, 2022. "Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy in Regional Housing Markets," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 499-529, October.
  9. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber, 2021. "Fiscal Policy and Households’ Inflation Expectations: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial," NBER Working Papers 28485, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Heiner Mikosch & Christopher Roth & Samad Sarferaz & Johannes Wohlfart, 2024. "Uncertainty and Information Acquisition: Evidence from Firms and Households," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 375-405, April.
  11. Emanuele Ciani & Adeline Delavande & Ben Etheridge & Marco Francesconi, 2023. "Policy Uncertainty and Information Flows: Evidence from Pension Reform Expectations," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 133(649), pages 98-129.
  12. Francesco D’Acunto & Andreas Fuster & Michael Weber, 2021. "Diverse Policy Committees Can Reach Underrepresented Groups," NBER Working Papers 29275, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Ingar Haaland & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2023. "Designing Information Provision Experiments," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 3-40, March.
  14. Olivier Coibion & Dimitris Georgarakos & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber, 2023. "Forward Guidance and Household Expectations," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(5), pages 2131-2171.
  15. Ye Zhang, 2020. "Discrimination in the Venture Capital Industry: Evidence from Field Experiments," Papers 2010.16084, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
  16. Stephane Bonhomme & Angela Denis, 2023. "Estimating Individual Responses when Tomorrow Matters," Papers 2310.09105, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
  17. Grewenig, Elisabeth & Lergetporer, Philipp & Werner, Katharina & Woessmann, Ludger, 2022. "Incentives, search engines, and the elicitation of subjective beliefs: Evidence from representative online survey experiments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 304-326.
  18. Peter Andre & Philipp Schirmer & Johannes Wohlfart, 2023. "Mental Models of the Stock Market," CESifo Working Paper Series 10691, CESifo.
  19. Andreas Fuster & Ricardo Perez-Truglia & Mirko Wiederholt & Basit Zafar, 2022. "Expectations with Endogenous Information Acquisition: An Experimental Investigation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(5), pages 1059-1078, December.
  20. Link, Sebastian & Peichl, Andreas & Roth, Christopher & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2023. "Information frictions among firms and households," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 99-115.
  21. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber, 2022. "Does Policy Communication during COVID Work?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(1), pages 3-39, March.
  22. Bleemer, Zachary & Zafar, Basit, 2018. "Intended college attendance: Evidence from an experiment on college returns and costs," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 184-211.
  23. Charles F. Manski, 2018. "Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(1), pages 411-471.
  24. Alessia De Stefani, 2021. "House price history, biased expectations, and credit cycles: The role of housing investors," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1238-1266, December.
  25. William D. Larson & Christos Makridis & Chad Redmer, 2021. "Borrower Expectations and Mortgage Performance: Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic," FHFA Staff Working Papers 21-02, Federal Housing Finance Agency.
  26. DeFusco, Anthony A. & Nathanson, Charles G. & Zwick, Eric, 2022. "Speculative dynamics of prices and volume," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 205-229.
  27. Bartosz Maćkowiak & Filip Matějka & Mirko Wiederholt, 2023. "Rational Inattention: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 226-273, March.
  28. Scott R. Baker & Robert A Farrokhnia & Steffen Meyer & Michaela Pagel & Constantine Yannelis, 2023. "Income, Liquidity, and the Consumption Response to the 2020 Economic Stimulus Payments," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(6), pages 2271-2304.
  29. Michael Bailey & Ruiqing Cao & Theresa Kuchler & Johannes Stroebel, 2016. "Social Networks and Housing Markets," NBER Working Papers 22258, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  30. Gong, Yifan & Yao, Yuxi, 2022. "Demographic changes and the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
  31. Carola Binder, 2021. "Presidential antagonism and central bank credibility," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 244-263, July.
  32. Pedro Bordalo & Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer, 2022. "Overreaction and Diagnostic Expectations in Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(3), pages 223-244, Summer.
  33. Otilia Boldea & Bettina Drepper & Zhuojiong Gan, 2020. "Change point estimation in panel data with time‐varying individual effects," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 712-727, September.
  34. Goldfayn-Frank, Olga & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2020. "Expectation formation in a new environment: Evidence from the German reunification," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 301-320.
  35. Thiemo Fetzer & Lukas Hensel & Johannes Hermle & Christopher Roth, 2021. "Coronavirus Perceptions and Economic Anxiety," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 103(5), pages 968-978, December.
  36. Lepinteur, Anthony & Waltl, Sofie R., 2020. "Tracking Owners' Sentiments: Subjective Home Values, Expectations and House Price Dynamics," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 299, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
  37. Misha Galashin & Martin Kanz & Ricardo Perez-Truglia, 2020. "Macroeconomic Expectations and Credit Card Spending," NBER Working Papers 28281, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  38. Sebastian Link & Andreas Peichl & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2023. "Attention to the Macroeconomy," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 256, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
  39. Patrick Bareinz & Fabian Koenings, 2021. "Framing of Economic News and Policy Support During a Pandemic: Evidence from an Information Experiment," Jena Economics Research Papers 2021-004, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
  40. Lukas Buchheim & Sebastian Link, 2017. "The Effect of Disaggregate Information on the Expectation Formation of Firms," CESifo Working Paper Series 6768, CESifo.
  41. Rüdiger Weber & Annika Weber & Christine Laudenbach & Johannes Wohlfart, 2021. "Beliefs About the Stock Market and Investment Choices: Evidence from a Field Experiment," CEBI working paper series 21-17, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. The Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI).
  42. Bernard, René & Tzamourani, Panagiota & Weber, Michael, 2022. "Climate change and individual behavior," Discussion Papers 01/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  43. Niu, Geng & Yu, Li & Fan, Gang-Zhi & Zhang, Donghao, 2019. "Corporate fraud, risk avoidance, and housing investment in China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 18-33.
  44. Blesse, Sebastian & Heinemann, Friedrich & Krieger, Tommy, 2021. "Informationsdefizite als Hindernis rationaler Wirtschaftspolitik: Ausmass, Ursachen und Gegenstrategien. Eine Studie mit Unterstützung der Brigitte Strube Stiftung," ZEW Expertises, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, number 241989, March.
  45. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Weber, Michael, 2020. "Does Policy Communication during COVID-19 Work?," IZA Discussion Papers 13355, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  46. Kindermann, Fabian & Le Blanc, Julia & Piazzesi, Monika & Schneider, Martin, 2021. "Learning about Housing Cost: Survey Evidence from the German House Price Boom," CEPR Discussion Papers 16223, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  47. Nicolai V. Kuminoff, 2018. "Can Understanding Spatial Equilibria Enhance Benefit Transfers for Environmental Policy Evaluation?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 69(3), pages 591-608, March.
  48. Kiesl-Reiter, Sarah, 2024. "Subjective Expectations about Joint Return Distributions," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302423, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  49. Niklas Gohl & Peter Haan & Claus Michelsen & Felix Weinhardt, 2022. "House Price Expectations," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1994, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  50. Åkesson, Jesper & Hahn, Robert & Metcalfe, Robert & Rasooly, Itzhak, 2022. "Race and Redistribution in the United States: An Experimental Analysis," SocArXiv 9pr34, Center for Open Science.
  51. Beutel, Johannes & Metiu, Norbert & Stockerl, Valentin, 2021. "Toothless tiger with claws? Financial stability communication, expectations, and risk-taking," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 53-69.
  52. repec:grz:wpaper:2019-05 is not listed on IDEAS
  53. Alistair Macaulay & James Moberly, 2022. "Heterogeneity in imperfect inflation expectations:theory and evidence from a novel survey," Economics Series Working Papers 970, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  54. John Ameriks & Gábor Kézdi & Minjoon Lee & Matthew D. Shapiro, 2020. "Heterogeneity in Expectations, Risk Tolerance, and Household Stock Shares: The Attenuation Puzzle," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(3), pages 633-646, July.
  55. Francisco Gomes & Michael Haliassos & Tarun Ramadorai, 2021. "Household Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 919-1000, September.
  56. Roth, Christopher & Settele, Sonja & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2022. "Beliefs about public debt and the demand for government spending," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 165-187.
  57. Heiss, Florian & Hurd, Michael & van Rooij, Maarten & Rossmann, Tobias & Winter, Joachim, 2022. "Dynamics and heterogeneity of subjective stock market expectations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 213-231.
  58. William N Goetzmann & Christophe Spaenjers & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2021. "Real and Private-Value Assets [Gendered prices]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(8), pages 3497-3526.
  59. Weber, Michael & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy, 2021. "Fiscal Policy And Households’ Inflation Expectations: Evidence From A Randomized Control Trial," CEPR Discussion Papers 15821, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  60. Maximilian Blesch & Philipp Eisenhauer & Peter Haan & Boryana Ilieva & Annekatrin Schrenker & Georg Weizsäcker, 2023. "Biased Wage Expectations and Female Labor Supply," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 411, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
  61. Joris Wauters & Zivile Zekaite & Garo Garabedian, 2024. "Owner-occupied housing costs, policy communication, and inflation expectations," Working Paper Research 449, National Bank of Belgium.
  62. Gohl, Niklas & Haan, Peter & Michelsen, Claus & Weinhardt, Felix, 2022. "House Price Expectations," IZA Discussion Papers 15040, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  63. Arpita Patnaik & Matthew J. Wiswall & Basit Zafar, 2020. "College Majors," NBER Working Papers 27645, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  64. Felix Chopra & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2023. "Home Price Expectations and Spending: Evidence from a Field Experiment," CEBI working paper series 23-03, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. The Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI).
  65. Greg Howard & Jack Liebersohn, 2023. "Regional Divergence and House Prices," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 312-350, July.
  66. Niklas Gohl & Peter Haan & Claus Michelsen & Felix Weinhardt, 2022. "House Price Expectations," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 1162, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
  67. Nicolas Bottan & Ricardo Perez-Truglia, 2025. "Betting on the House: Subjective Expectations and Market Choices," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 459-500, January.
  68. Christine Laudenbach & Annika Weber & Rüdiger Weber & Johannes Wohlfart, 2021. "Beliefs about the Stock Market and Investment Choices: Evidence from a Survey and a Field Experiment," CESifo Working Paper Series 9427, CESifo.
  69. Dylong, Patrick & Koenings, Fabian, 2023. "Framing of economic news and policy support during a pandemic: Evidence from a survey experiment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
  70. Mesly, Olivier, 2023. "Irrational exuberance and deception — Why markets spin out of control," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
  71. Deng, Xin & Yu, Mingzhe, 2021. "Does the marginal child increase household debt? – Evidence from the new fertility policy in China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
  72. Keyang Li & Yu Qin & Jing Wu & Jubo Yan, 2023. "Perceived economic prospects during the early stage of COVID‐19 breakout," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(4), pages 696-713, October.
  73. Hie Joo Ahn & Choongryul Yang, 2022. "Effects of Monetary Policy on Household Expectations: The Role of Homeownership," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-065, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  74. Nicholas Garvin & Alex Kearney & Corrine Rosé, 2021. "Macroprudential Limits on Mortgage Products: The Australian Experience," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2021-07, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  75. Müller, Lara Marie & Harrs, Sören & Rockenbach, Bettina, 2022. "How Narratives Impact Financial Behavior - Experimental Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264089, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  76. Weber, Michael & Candia, Bernardo & Ropele, Tiziano & Lluberas, Rodrigo & Frache, Serafin & Meyer, Brent & Kumar, Saten & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Coibion, Olivier & Kenny, Geoff, 2023. "Tell Me Something I don't Already Know: Learning in Low and High-inflation Settings," CEPR Discussion Papers 18299, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  77. Gohl, Niklas & Haan, Peter & Michelsen, Claus & Weinhardt, Felix, 2022. "House Price Expectations," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 313, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
  78. Andersson, Ola & Campos-Mercade, Pol & Meier, Armando N. & Wengström, Erik, 2021. "Anticipation of COVID-19 vaccines reduces willingness to socially distance," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
  79. Klaus Adam & Oliver Pfäuti & Timo Reinelt, 2020. "Falling Natural Rates, Rising Housing Volatility and the Optimal Inflation Target," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2020_235, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
  80. Deng, Kuang Kuang & Lang, Henan & Zhou, Xiaoxia, 2022. "Extrapolation and house price overreaction: Evidence from local jurisdiction mergers," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
  81. Ludwig, Alexander & Mankart, Jochen & Quintana, Jorge & Wiederholt, Mirko, 2024. "Heterogeneity in expectations and house price dynamics," SAFE Working Paper Series 432, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
  82. Sarah Kiesl-Reiter & Melanie Lührmann & Jonathan Shaw & Joachim Winter, 2024. "The Formation of Subjective House Price Expectations," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 491, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
  83. Olivier Armantier & Gizem Koşar & Jason Somerville & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw & John C. Williams, 2022. "The Curious Case of the Rise in Deflation Expectations," Staff Reports 1037, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  84. Christophe Andre & David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta, 2020. "Time-Varying Spillovers between Housing Sentiment and Housing Market in the United States," Working Papers 202091, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  85. Turlo, Sergey & Fina, Matteo & Kasinger, Johannes & Laghaie, Arash & Otter, Thomas, 2025. "Discrete choice in marketing through the lens of rational inattention," Other publications TiSEM 24894409-70a9-4920-9d3c-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  86. André, Christophe & Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan, 2021. "Time-varying spillovers between housing sentiment and housing market in the United States☆," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
  87. Gohl, Niklas & Haan, Peter & Michelsen, Claus & Weinhardt, Felix Julian, 2022. "House price expectations," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 117761, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  88. Gunther Tichy, 2020. "Zur Prognostizierbarkeit von Krisen," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 93(3), pages 193-206, March.
  89. Ma, Chao, 2020. "Momentum and Reversion to Fundamentals: Are They Captured by Subjective Expectations of House Prices?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
  90. Kuang, Pei & Tang, Li & Zhang, Renbin & Zhang, Tongbin, 2022. "Forecast disagreement about long-run macroeconomic relationships," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 371-387.
  91. Shimon Kogan & Florian H. Schneider & Roberto A. Weber, 2021. "Self-serving biases in beliefs about collective outcomes," ECON - Working Papers 379, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
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  98. Niklas Gohl & Peter Haan & Claus Michelsen & Felix Weinhardt, 2022. "House price expectations," CEP Discussion Papers dp1829, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
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  100. Le Roux, Julien & Roma, Moreno, 2019. "Accuracy and determinants of self-assessed euro area house prices," Working Paper Series 2328, European Central Bank.
  101. Christine Laudenbach & Annika Weber & Johannes Wohlfart, 2021. "Beliefs About the Stock Market and Investment Choices: Evidence from a Field Experiment," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 128, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
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