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Fiscal Policy and Households' Inflation Expectations: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial

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  • Coibion, Olivier

    (University of Texas at Austin)

  • Gorodnichenko, Yuriy

    (University of California, Berkeley)

  • Weber, Michael

    (World Bank)

Abstract

Rising government debt levels around the world are raising the specter that authorities might seek to inflate away the debt. In theoretical settings where fiscal policy "dominates" monetary policy, higher debt without offsetting changes in primary surpluses should lead households to anticipate this higher inflation. Are household inflation expectations sensitive to fiscal considerations in practice? We field a large randomized control trial on U.S. households to address this question by providing randomly chosen subsets of households with information treatments about the fiscal outlook and then observing how they revise their expectations about future inflation as well as taxes and government spending. We find that information about the current debt or deficit levels has little impact on inflation expectations but that news about future debt leads them to anticipate higher inflation, both in the short run and long run. News about rising debt also induces households to anticipate rising spending and a higher rate of interest for government debt.

Suggested Citation

  • Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Weber, Michael, 2021. "Fiscal Policy and Households' Inflation Expectations: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial," IZA Discussion Papers 14114, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14114
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Olivier Coibion & Dimitris Georgarakos & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber, 2023. "Forward Guidance and Household Expectations," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(5), pages 2131-2171.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Weber & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2023. "The Expected, Perceived, and Realized Inflation of US Households Before and During the COVID19 Pandemic," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(1), pages 326-368, March.
    2. Yoosoon Chang & Fabio Gómez-Rodríguez & Mr. Gee Hee Hong, 2022. "The Effects of Economic Shocks on Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations," IMF Working Papers 2022/132, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Francesco D’Acunto & Ulrike Malmendier & Michael Weber, 2022. "What Do the Data Tell Us About Inflation Expectations?," NBER Working Papers 29825, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Francesco Grigoli & Damiano Sandri, 2023. "Public debt and household inflation expectations," BIS Working Papers 1082, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Damiano Sandri & Francesco Grigoli & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2023. "Keep calm and bank on: panic-driven bank runs and the role of public communication," BIS Working Papers 1119, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Barthélemy, Jean & Mengus, Eric & Plantin, Guillaume, 2024. "The central bank, the treasury, or the market: Which one determines the price level?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    7. Jocelyne Zoumenou, 2023. "On the impact of fiscal policy on inflation: The case of fiscal rules," EconomiX Working Papers 2023-21, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    8. Georgarakos, Dimitris & Kenny, Geoff, 2022. "Household spending and fiscal support during the COVID-19 pandemic: Insights from a new consumer survey," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(S), pages 1-14.
    9. Dmitri V. Vinogradov & Michael J. Lamla & Yousef Makhlouf, 2024. "Survey-based expectations and uncertainty attitudes," Working Papers 2024_02, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    10. Eminidou, Snezana & Geiger, Martin & Zachariadis, Marios, 2023. "Public debt and state-dependent effects of fiscal policy in the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    11. Huber, Stefanie J. & Minina, Daria & Schmidt, Tobias, 2023. "The pass-through from inflation perceptions to inflation expectations," Discussion Papers 17/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    12. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Pesso, Tom, 2024. "Fiscal policy and inflation: accounting for non-linearities in government debt," Working Paper Series 2996, European Central Bank.
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    14. Syngjoo Choi & Bongseob Kim & Young-Sik Kim & Ohik Kwon, 2023. "Central Bank Digital Currency and Privacy: A Randomized Survey Experiment," BIS Working Papers 1147, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, 2022. "Dynamics of monetary policy and fiscal policy during the pandemic: the Philippine experience," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The monetary-fiscal policy nexus in the wake of the pandemic, volume 122, pages 217-240, Bank for International Settlements.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    expectations management; inflation expectations; surveys;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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