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Betting on the House: Subjective Expectations and Market Choices

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  • Nicolas Bottan
  • Ricardo Perez-Truglia

Abstract

Home price expectations play a central role in macroeconomics and finance. However, there is little direct evidence on their effect on market choices. We provide causal evidence using a large-scale, high-stakes field experiment in the United States. We sent letters about home price trends to 57,910 homeowners who listed their homes. These letters contained randomized information creating nondeceptive, exogenous variation in home price expectations. Consistent with economic theory, higher expectations reduced selling probability. Behavior was highly elastic: a 1 percentage point increase in expectations caused a 2.63 percentage point reduction in the probability of selling the property within 12 weeks.

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  • Nicolas Bottan & Ricardo Perez-Truglia, 2025. "Betting on the House: Subjective Expectations and Market Choices," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 459-500, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejapp:v:17:y:2025:i:1:p:459-500
    DOI: 10.1257/app.20230641
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    1. Marcelo Bergolo & Rodrigo Ceni & Guillermo Cruces & Matias Giaccobasso & Ricardo Perez-Truglia, 2023. "Tax Audits as Scarecrows: Evidence from a Large-Scale Field Experiment," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 110-153, February.
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    6. Zoë Cullen & Ricardo Perez-Truglia, 2022. "How Much Does Your Boss Make? The Effects of Salary Comparisons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(3), pages 766-822.
    7. Andreas Fuster & Ricardo Perez-Truglia & Mirko Wiederholt & Basit Zafar, 2022. "Expectations with Endogenous Information Acquisition: An Experimental Investigation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(5), pages 1059-1078, December.
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    9. Nicolas L. Bottan & Ricardo Perez-Truglia, 2022. "Choosing Your Pond: Location Choices and Relative Income," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(5), pages 1010-1027, December.
    10. Perez-Truglia, Ricardo & Troiano, Ugo, 2018. "Shaming tax delinquents," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 120-137.
    11. Ricardo Perez-Truglia & Guillermo Cruces, 2017. "Partisan Interactions: Evidence from a Field Experiment in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(4), pages 1208-1243.
    12. Alberto Cavallo & Guillermo Cruces & Ricardo Perez-Truglia, 2017. "Inflation Expectations, Learning, and Supermarket Prices: Evidence from Survey Experiments," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 1-35, July.
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    15. Michael Bailey & Ruiqing Cao & Theresa Kuchler & Johannes Stroebel, 2018. "The Economic Effects of Social Networks: Evidence from the Housing Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(6), pages 2224-2276.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pinar Yildirim & Andrei Simonov & Maria Petrova & Ricardo Perez-Truglia, 2024. "Are Political and Charitable Giving Substitutes? Evidence from the United States," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(11), pages 8030-8043, November.
    2. William N Goetzmann & Christophe Spaenjers & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2021. "Real and Private-Value Assets [Gendered prices]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(8), pages 3497-3526.
    3. Francesco Capozza & Ingar Haaland & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2021. "Studying Information Acquisition in the Field: A Practical Guide and Review," CEBI working paper series 21-15, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. The Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI).
    4. Heiner Mikosch & Christopher Roth & Samad Sarferaz & Johannes Wohlfart, 2024. "Uncertainty and Information Acquisition: Evidence from Firms and Households," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 375-405, April.
    5. Organ, Paul R. & Ruda, Alex & Slemrod, Joel & Turk, Alex, 2022. "Incentive effects of the IRS’ passport certification and revocation process," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    6. Antonio Gargano & Marco Giacoletti & Elvis Jarnecic, 2023. "Local Experiences, Search, and Spillovers in the Housing Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(2), pages 1015-1053, April.
    7. Brad C. Nathan & Ricardo Perez-Truglia & Alejandro Zentner, 2020. "My Taxes are Too Darn High: Why Do Households Protest their Taxes?," NBER Working Papers 27816, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Gáti, Laura, 2023. "Monetary policy & anchored expectations—An endogenous gain learning model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(S), pages 37-47.
    9. Christine Laudenbach & Annika Weber & Rüdiger Weber & Johannes Wohlfart, 2021. "Beliefs about the Stock Market and Investment Choices: Evidence from a Survey and a Field Experiment," CESifo Working Paper Series 9427, CESifo.
    10. Matias Giaccobasso & Brad C. Nathan & Ricardo Perez-Truglia & Alejandro Zentner, 2022. "Where Do My Tax Dollars Go? Tax Morale Effects of Perceived Government Spending," NBER Working Papers 29789, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Lawrence Kryzanowski & Yanting Wu & Tingyu Zhou, 2023. "Conflicts of interest and agent heterogeneity in buyer brokerage," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(1), pages 130-169, January.
    12. Ulrike Malmendier & Alexandra Steiny Wellsjo, 2024. "Rent or Buy? Inflation Experiences and Homeownership within and across Countries," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(3), pages 1977-2023, June.
    13. Ingar Haaland & Ole-Andreas Elvik Næss & Ingar K. Haaland, 2023. "Misperceived Returns to Active Investing," CESifo Working Paper Series 10257, CESifo.
    14. Vod Vilfort & Whitney Zhang, 2023. "Interpreting TSLS Estimators in Information Provision Experiments," Papers 2309.04793, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
    15. Rüdiger Weber & Annika Weber & Christine Laudenbach & Johannes Wohlfart, 2021. "Beliefs About the Stock Market and Investment Choices: Evidence from a Field Experiment," CEBI working paper series 21-17, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. The Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI).
    16. Pahontu, Raluca L., 2022. "Divisive jobs: three facets of risk, precarity, and redistribution," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 111593, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Christine Laudenbach & Annika Weber & Johannes Wohlfart, 2021. "Beliefs About the Stock Market and Investment Choices: Evidence from a Field Experiment," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 128, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    18. Kiesl-Reiter, Sarah, 2024. "Subjective Expectations about Joint Return Distributions," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302423, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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